Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[vc2002]

I'll throw out a slightly more unusual comparison. Let's treat Cameron/Schwarzenegger as a franchise. Coming off T2, an absolute juggernaut of a movie, their "sequel" was TRUE LIES, which fell around 28% from its predecessor. If we use that comparison, A2 finishes around 534m or so.

 

That's an interesting perspective but the truth is, there are no good enough comparisons on Avatar sequels at all. The sequel to the highest grossing film of all time, the 1st movie being an original project that had a 10x multiplier, Cameron being the writer-director of the entire franchise, Cameron making No.1 movie in the history back to back 12 years apart, the falling of 3D, the era that sequels and adaptations dominating everything, the stronge competition of home cinema.... Jesus why even bother trying to find a comparison?

 

Even ESB isn't a good comparison because that was decades ago the film industry and market were a hell lot different the movie goers were a lot different how movies were released was a lot different.

 

We throw out comparisons randomly, but eventually A2 will perform in no other's pattern, but its own.

Edited July 19, 2014 by vc2002

[Neo]

I'm assuming that means it's a low estimate.  

 

I think Avatar's success was mostly due to the film being something visually new as well as its expert use of 3D.  It was an experience.  The sequels have neither of those advantages.

And you it won't have anything new?

[Neo]

Empire Strikes back had a 50% drop from Star Wars, given that Avatar was less of a hit than Star Wars I went with about 40%.

 

Also, TF2 struck the iron when it was hot, Avatar is having a nearly ten year wait with a story that really felt like it was finished (not much need for a sequel, it stands on its own).  Plus the 3D share will be vastly lower.

 

7 vs 10. I guess you haven't looked at Cameron's resume.

[Neo]

It's not the whole budget, it's what they will spend in NZ.

Also been in title for months.

[vc2002]

By that argument TDKR must be Razzie worthy as well.

 

Even with the shooting incident that damaged its boxoffice performance, its DOM take still only dropped 15% from TDK. (Also you have to consider the fact Ledger's death gave TDK a boost.) With the same drop A2 will make 630m. I actually think that's a reasonable number. 600-650m is the best range IMO.

 

But what you are suggesting is a 40% drop, and that needs a razzie.

Edited July 19, 2014 by vc2002

[The Futurist]

Maybe there s a twist : yellow na'vis !

[kowhite]

Maybe there s a twist : yellow na'vis !

Will they be mocapped by Asian actors? Edited July 19, 2014 by kowhite

[The Futurist]

Will they be mocapped by Asian actors?

 

1 Trillion in China then.

[kowhite]

1 Trillion in China then.

Avatar could use some martial arts.

[lilmac]

Avatar breakdown :Unique Visual spectacle : 40%Story, characters, plot : 40%Novelty of 3D : 20%

 

Unique Visual spectacle : 40% - The unique visual spectacle will be diminished for the aforementioned reasons although I'm sure there will be new environments...subtract 10%.

Story, characters, plot : 40% - Subtract 5% from Story, Characters, plot because the world and characters are now familiar to us. 

 

 

Novelty of 3D : 20% - Take out the last 20%.  

Edited July 19, 2014 by lilmac

[kowhite]

Take out the last 20%. Subtract 5% from Story, Characters, plot because the world and characters are now familiar to us.   The unique visual spectacle will be diminished for the aforementioned reasons although I'm sure there will be new environments...subtract 10%.  

Add 100%: James fucking Cameron.

[lilmac]

Add 100%: James fucking Cameron.

 

Indeed.  

 

 

He's a living legend.  I"m lowballing so as to not be disappointed.  

[vc2002]

1 Trillion in China then.

 

A trillion dollars isn't cool.

Edited July 19, 2014 by vc2002

[kowhite]

A trillion dollars isn't cool.

It's been 2 hours since this post...Don't leave us hanging...What IS cool?

[vc2002]

It's been 2 hours since this post...Don't leave us hanging...What IS cool?

 

[HeyItsMoses]

So, I thought this was gonna be a trilogy, but there's gonna be a 4th one?!

 

Zoe Saldana's upcoming movies are Avatar 2, 3, and 4, on '16, '17, and '18.

[katniss]

Avatars 2 is an intriguing box office puzzle.  Normally, i'd be inclined to go with those that think a sequel for a ginormous box office success like Avatars would have no chance of coming close to the first movie's gross. 

 

But it's hard to be on the other side of a bet against James freaking Cameron, and call for a 20%+ drop.  The man's sequels are incredible cinematic experiences.  Aliens and Terminator 2 should rank in everyone's top 5 sci fi films of all time. 

 

Personally, i thought Avatar was a little too long and a little too hokey (squirm inducing moments where the Native American metaphor was seriously ham handed).  But despite this, i couldn't stop watching the film and not because of its visuals.  Cameron just knows how to get the audience to care about the characters, both the good guys and the bad guys. 

 

And it's not like Avatar is some burnt out, fatigued franchise that's been through its 850245th reboot or 522345 sequel. 

 

This prediction is a toughie.

[katniss]

Avatars 2 is an intriguing box office puzzle.  Normally, i'd be inclined to go with those that think a sequel for a ginormous box office success like Avatars would have no chance of coming close to the first movie's gross. 

 

But it's hard to be on the other side of a bet against James freaking Cameron, and call for a 20%+ drop.  The man's sequels are incredible cinematic experiences.  Aliens and Terminator 2 should rank in everyone's top 5 sci fi films of all time. 

 

Personally, i thought Avatar was a little too long and a little too hokey (squirm inducing moments where the Native American metaphor was seriously ham handed).  But despite this, i couldn't stop watching the film and not because of its visuals.  Cameron just knows how to get the audience to care about the characters, both the good guys and the bad guys. 

 

And it's not like Avatar is some burnt out, fatigued franchise that's been through its 850245th reboot or 522345 sequel. 

 

This prediction is a toughie.

[Ash Skywalker]

 

 

"James Cameron is still working on the final drafts of the script and then everyone in the cast will get the call. We're going to be shooting mainly in Los Angeles and that will make things easier for me since I live there. Because we're doing the sequels back-to-back and it's going to take at least eight or nine months or more to finish the (three) films."

 

Zoe Saldana Says Avatar Sequels Will Take Eight to Nine Months to Film http://t.co/FLpimC4Zs4

— ComingSoon.net (@comingsoonnet)

July 29, 2014

[ilikemunster]

Domestic predictions (based on anecdotal WOM):

 

Avatar 2 - $475m

Avatar 3 - $445m

Avatar 4 - $415m

 

 

Agree with Hatebox, I'd love to see what this underwater environment is like.

 

Avatar 2 - 460m

Avatar 3 - 445m

Avatar 4 - 480m

 

There is NO WAY Avatar 2 makes that "little". The internet hate may be skewed but the general public LOVED this film. Dvd/Bluray sales + tv replay proves it. When the trailers come out everyone will get excited again.

 

550 it the minimum for Avatar 2.  I can see Avatar 3 and Avatar 4 decreasing significantly if the second one isn't good.