Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Pure Spirit]

My “floor” prediction if the movie is merely good with great marketing:

 

$550M DOM

$2B OS - China

$600M China

 

$3.15B total, assuming significant drop off from the first after accounting for inflation plus foreign market growth

 

not the absolute floor, if the movie is outright bad but has good marketing I could see it making JW * 1.3 numbers (somewhere around IW)

 

if both the marketing and movie are are bad (very, very unlikely), it could make JW:2 numbers

 

My overall prediction assuming things go as well as Jim’s last 2 sequels and 2 original films

 

$1B DOM

$3B OS - China

$1.1B China

$5.1B total

[Deuce66]

1 hour ago, lilmac said:

The anti-Avatar crowd are very vocal, to the point of trolling. What did Avatar do to them personally? LOL (rhetorical question b/c I don't care)

 

I foresee a vigorous anti-Avatar campaign on the internets when A2 ultimately comes out. 

 

Yes, it will be divisive that's for sure just like the political climate in the USA at the present time. A betting man would say that supporters of the orange haired one are NOT big fans of Avatar or its messages. 

 

 

 

[NCsoft]

28 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

 

Yes, it will be divisive that's for sure just like the political climate in the USA at the present time. A betting man would say that supporters of the orange haired one are NOT big fans of Avatar or its messages. 

  

  

 

It is going to be a tricky situation, because the social justice crowd on Twitter also hates Cameron and Avatar, for completely undeserved reasons. They're extremely short sighted for not seeing Avatar's environmentalism messages, instead, they look at Cameron as if he's some evil statue of patriarchy that needs to be defeated, completely forgetting how devoted Cameron has always been, in creating strong, independent female roles. 

I think it's a good idea that Cameron stays "humble" and "Play nice" for now, I don't want a social media tirade against Cameron when Avatar 2 comes out.

Edited May 9, 2019 by NCsoft

[cdsacken]

18 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

My “floor” prediction if the movie is merely good with great marketing:

 

$550M DOM

$2B OS - China

$600M China

 

$3.15B total, assuming significant drop off from the first after accounting for inflation plus foreign market growth

 

not the absolute floor, if the movie is outright bad but has good marketing I could see it making JW * 1.3 numbers (somewhere around IW)

 

if both the marketing and movie are are bad (very, very unlikely), it could make JW:2 numbers

 

My overall prediction assuming things go as well as Jim’s last 2 sequels and 2 original films

 

$1B DOM

$3B OS - China

$1.1B China

$5.1B total

With a release date of 2030 I agree.

[Sheldon Cr]

11 hours ago, Pure Spirit said:

The extra year delay makes me think the movie is gonna clock in at a heavy 3 to 3.5 hours. 

 

Not worried at all, the BO of Jim's movies haven't been reliant on those sort of details. If the movie is as great we all hope, everyone is going to find a way to see it on the best screen possible no matter how long it takes.

James will deliver...The omega effect! I can't wait to see what he cooks up as we explore the water enviorment of pandora

[Sheldon Cr]

Lol this guy

...smh 

 

[NCsoft]

4 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Lol this guy

...smh 

 

Campea was actually not that unreasonable, compare to these guys, Kal

Starting at around 5 Min mark, everytime I see these guys ridiculing Avatar, it really pisses me off.

 

[Deuce66]

2 hours ago, WeneedtotalkaboutKevin said:

Jimmy should wait until it is blue people's turn.

 

Will he do the same when the avatar record is broken as well? If not, I doubt his sincerity. 

 

If I was a betting man, right this second I would predict that Endgame will finish up $60-$100 million short of Avatar. The domestic box office drop (Mon-Wed) over prior week is substantial over 65%. Even at 50% t'il the end of its run it won't be good enough. 

 

JC might have a congratulatory tweet in the bank if Endgame gets to #1 however he might not need to post it. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 9, 2019 by Deuce66

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

 

Yes, it will be divisive that's for sure just like the political climate in the USA at the present time. A betting man would say that supporters of the orange haired one are NOT big fans of Avatar or its messages. 

 

 

 

You can support Avatar's messages, but still have problems with the film. A lot of lefty ciritics did not care for the film.

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, NCsoft said:

It is going to be a tricky situation, because the social justice crowd on Twitter also hates Cameron and Avatar, for completely undeserved reasons. They're extremely short sighted for not seeing Avatar's environmentalism messages, instead, they look at Cameron as if he's some evil statue of patriarchy that needs to be defeated, completely forgetting how devoted Cameron has always been, in creating strong, independent female roles. 

I think it's a good idea that Cameron stays "humble" and "Play nice" for now, I don't want a social media tirade against Cameron when Avatar 2 comes out.

If you can't see Avatar's enviormentlaism you are a moron, frankly.

In fact I think the film lays it message on with too thick a hand. A lot of people who agreed with it still did not like it shoved down their throats.

[Reddroast]

1 hour ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Lol this guy

...smh 

 

He is not wrong. It has already become a running joke in my friend group. The fact that he want to up the films framerate is a bad sign imho

[Sheldon Cr]

3 hours ago, Reddroast said:

He is not wrong. It has already become a running joke in my friend group. The fact that he want to up the films framerate is a bad sign imho

7 hours ago, TimmyRiggins said:

And yet those little pussies will be there day one, they'll just be posing online. 

You know its the same thing over and over and in the end  what you get is Cameron doing what he does. Annilate the box office, I will enjoy when we bury the  fb films to a tune of 1.5 to 2.4 billion gap or more.

 

Jc actually said congrats to Endgame for beating Titanic.

Tho we know really no film can compare to titanics run and domination 

 

😉

 

--Jc's consistent box office might cant be reasoned with  or bargained with. 

 

It what he does. Its all he does!

 

And he absolutely wont stop until pretenders to the throne are Terminated!

 

 

 

[Sheldon Cr]

Here are some of the early predicts so far. Everyone please help me update👍

 

Avatar 2 Dec 17th, 2021

 

Kal...1.1b dom, 3.3b OS

 

4.5b ww

 

Ncsoft... 3.7Bww

 

 

 

Jimbo...1.1B dom , 

 

2.9b OS, 4.1B ww

 

Keysersoze123

600 Domestic /1.2B OS -C / 700M C - 2.5B WW

Pure spirit

 

low-end:

 

550M DOM

 

$2B OS - China

 

$600M China

 

 

 

$3.15B total, assuming significant drop off from the first after accounting for inflation plus foreign market growth

 

(Nice one Pure Spirit I hope

 

we reach your highend predict or far more fellow Pandorian)

 

Pure Spirits High-end :

 

$1B DOM

 

$3B OS

 

$1.1B China

 

$5.1B total

 

Edited May 9, 2019 by Sheldon Cr

[IronJimbo]

 

To Kevin and everybody at Marvel

This is Jim showing two things. 1) Endgame is a studio first product. 2) It takes mass cordination to take on Jim

 

An Iceberg sank the real Titanic. It took The Avengers to sink my Titanic.

Again, to beat Jim you need supernatural forces or a force of Nature.

 

Everyone here at Lightstorm Enternainment salutes your amazing achievement.

Shameless Lightstorm plug, a little fuck you to Disney. Followed up with obvious sarcasm.

 

You've shown that the movie industry is not only alive and well. It's bigger than ever!

This is great by Jim. Not only hyping Avatar 2's incoming 4 billies, but taking a dig at Endgame. It's not as impressive to get the highest grossing film when the movie industry is bigger than ever.

 

Jim Cameron

Where are the idiots who made snarky remarks at me calling him Jim now?

 

Overall this is fantastic from Jim, this is a complete NON-congratulations. It's him doing the PR thing while making it obvious to those in the know he's laying down the gauntlet.

 

December 2021 is where cinema is finally back

.

[Sheldon Cr]

4 hours ago, NCsoft said:

Campea was actually not that unreasonable, compare to these guys, Kal

Starting at around 5 Min mark, everytime I see these guys ridiculing Avatar, it really pisses me off.

 

4 hours ago, NCsoft said:

 

Gd evening Ncsoft ..They're good at that until a Terminator 2, Titanic or Avatar drop kicks em in the head.😎😉😂lol

[Sheldon Cr]

12 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

 

To Kevin and everybody at Marvel

This is Jim showing two things. 1) Endgame is a studio first product. 2) It takes mass cordination to take on Jim

 

An Iceberg sank the real Titanic. It took The Avengers to sink my Titanic.

Again, to beat Jim you need supernatural forces or a force of Nature.

 

Everyone here at Lightstorm Enternainment salutes your amazing achievement.

Shameless Lightstorm plug, a little fuck you to Disney. Followed up with obvious sarcasm.

 

You've shown that the movie industry is not only alive and well. It's bigger than ever!

This is great by Jim. Not only hyping Avatar 2's incoming 4 billies, but taking a dig at Endgame. It's not as impressive to get the highest grossing film when the movie industry is bigger than ever.

 

Jim Cameron

Where are the idiots who made snarky remarks at me calling him Jim now?

 

Overall this is fantastic from Jim, this is a complete NON-congratulations. It's him doing the PR thing while making it obvious to those in the know he's laying down the gauntlet.

 

December 2021 is where cinema is finally back

.

High-five...You damn Skippy Jimbo buddy. The bucks begin with Avatar 2. Going to be crazy if Avatar2 destroys even Pure Spirit's 5billion ww high-end. Titanic levels of bo success today would be what about 6 or 7 billion ww right? Avatar2 would also have to hit the 1.5b mark or better domestically. As I believe titanic really made a gap domestically on all the behemoths bigtime. Wow if A2 hits 4.5b -6 billy plus...😨😨😨

Edited May 10, 2019 by Sheldon Cr

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Sheldon Cr said:

High-five...You damn Skippy Jimbo buddy. The bucks begin with Avatar 2. Going to be crazy if Avatar2 destroys even Ncsofts high-end. Titanic levels of bo success today would be what about 6 or 7 billion ww right? Avatar2 would also have to hit the 1.5b mark or better domestically. As I believe titanic really made a gap domestically on all the behemoths bigtime. Wow if A2 hits 4.5b -6 billy plus...😨😨😨

first film not only to get a billie in 1 market, but in two.

[Sheldon Cr]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

first film not only to get a billie in 1 market, but in two.

And I feel to make 200mil USD or better in over 8 markets as well. Would be awesome if we also hit 350-450 mil USD plus in japan.

Or how about beating Avengers 1.5bww from China alone. The possibilities are astronomically high for A2 to set unheard of bo overseas

Edited May 9, 2019 by Sheldon Cr

[Deep Wang]

You guys just keep on setting yourselves up for disappointment, please!  

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

You've shown that the movie industry is not only alive and well. It's bigger than ever!

This is great by Jim. Not only hyping Avatar 2's incoming 4 billies, but taking a dig at Endgame. It's not as impressive to get the highest grossing film when the movie industry is bigger than ever.

 

This is the correct interpretation.

When I saw the poster earlier today my first reaction (aside from not mentioning Russo brothers) was that why would he bring up "the industry is bigger than ever", that is actually quite out of place in a congratulatory note. Unless, he's hinting at the expanded global market. It is well played too, nobody on social media has picked up on it, yet.