Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Sheldon Cr]

9 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

This is the correct interpretation.

When I saw the poster earlier today my first reaction (aside from not mentioning Russo brothers) was that why would he bring up "the industry is bigger than ever", that is actually quite out of place in a congratulatory note. Unless, he's hinting at the expanded global market. It is well played too, nobody on social media has picked up on it, yet. 

Lol Ncsoft. That's our Jim. He's proably smurking how intelligent that lil shade was too. 😉💪

[Sheldon Cr]

46 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

You guys just keep on setting yourselves up for disappointment, please!  

Lol Titanic and Avatar is the answer to the illogical.

I've said it before pending no global disasters. Jc may have no limits when hes focused on shaking up the world.

[XXR & Friends]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

You guys just keep on setting yourselves up for disappointment, please!  

 

Idk DW. I don't know how you could possibly be let down if you're only expecting a billion+ from 2 different markets, and $200m+ from 8 different markets. And obviously $350m+ from Japan is happening, it's only 40% over their record!!!

[Sheldon Cr]

4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Idk DW. I don't know how you could possibly be let down if you're only expecting a billion+ from 2 different markets, and $200m+ from 8 different markets. And obviously $350m+ from Japan is happening, it's only 40% over their record!!!

Lol Avatar did about 200 mil there and japan's market has expanded 300%. Not anyones fault that they don't flock the theaters for.pretenders on the scale of a James Cameron mega movie. Do the .math.

Avatar has over 8 countries with 150 mil up in 2009 lol.  Those numbers will increase significantly as simply they can house more of Avatar fandom.now

175mil in france for heavens sake. There's 3-4b+ OS predicts on the web based on Camerons fan base for a reason. 😉👍

[Pure Spirit]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

You guys just keep on setting yourselves up for disappointment, please!  

Are we supposed to pretend that Titanic and Avatar adjusted aren't in the cards after inflation and foreign market expansion?

 

These are our predictions, 50% chance it goes higher, 50% chance it goes lower, I don't be disappointed with $3B or even $2.5B, especially if the movie sets up a bombshell sequel, I just don't think $2.5B is very likely given the performance of Jurassic World.

[The Futurist]

I thought the plan was to check if 2 & 3 were succesful enough to do 4 & 5.

 

Seems those plans have changed and  4 & 5 will happen no matter what ?

[infamous5445]

Just wow.

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Lol Avatar did about 200 mil there and japan's market has expanded 300%. Not anyones fault that they don't flock the theaters for.pretenders on the scale of a James Cameron mega movie. Do the .math.

Avatar has over 8 countries with 150 mil up in 2009 lol.  Those numbers will increase significantly as simply they can house more of Avatar fandom.now

175mil in france for heavens sake. There's 3-4b+ OS predicts on the web based on Camerons fan base for a reason. 😉👍

Japan's market has not expanded it's contracted along with a 20% currency decline. You are in for a rude awakening in regards to Japan and most of Europe. Conversely Asia will do much better. Latin America got murdered in exchange rates as well.

[andrewgr]

The exchange rate is the only reason EG isn't crushing Avatar's WW record beyond recognition.  When Avatar made its run, every 10 Euros translated into $14; during EG, every 10 Euros translates into $11.  It's the same story with most major currencies.  Just a monstrously huge impact.

  

With regards to A2's chances of getting the WW record back, one good thing about A2 being delayed is that it's almost inconceivable given the political situation in the U.S. that the dollar can remain strong for another 2 years.  By the time A2 is released, it is easily conceivable that it will be even more favorable for A2 than it was for A1.  If you told me you came from the future and on the day of A2's relase, $10 Euros translated to $16, I wouldn't bat an eyelid.  I'm not predicting that big of a drop for the dollar, but the situation right now is all sorts of FUBAR, and there are a lot of ways it could play out that would make foreign governments and institiutional investors flee to Euros or the Yuan.  I would bet a kidney the dollar will be significantly weaker two years from now than it is now, I'm just not sure by how much.

Edited May 10, 2019 by andrewgr

[TomCruiseTop]

My prediction is that $4B is the floor.  

[Juby]

6 hours ago, andrewgr said:

The exchange rate is the only reason EG isn't crushing Avatar's WW record beyond recognition.  When Avatar made its run, every 10 Euros translated into $14; during EG, every 10 Euros translates into $11.

 

If there was 60K screens in China in 2010 like it is now, Avatar could have made there over $1B alone. Also, Avatar's adjusted domestic gross is around $877 mln, so Endgame wouldn't have much or any advantage in its two biggest markets. Think about that.

[Sheldon Cr]

8 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Japan's market has not expanded it's contracted along with a 20% currency decline. You are in for a rude awakening in regards to Japan and most of Europe. Conversely Asia will do much better. Latin America got murdered in exchange rates as well.

Heard it all before but I dont see China and Japan building special theaters to house comics or sw movies. Sorry but exchange rates dont matter much if your audience support and repeat business can fuel so many millions all year long to that countries economy. Perhaps you should read up on the obsession of this movie in China, Japan and South Korea.

 

Explain why T2. Titanic and Avatar all did astounding numbers in Asia no matter.the financial situations😉

Japan won't have insane number??  You keep holding unto those delusions of grandnure, as I will be looking on 4dx equivalents specially made for Avatar 2 fuelling a 200-400 mil dollar run or better.😎

Edited May 10, 2019 by Sheldon Cr

[Sheldon Cr]

2 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

My prediction is that $4B is the floor.  

I'm starting to believe it Jimbo. A near 4billion ww lock movie. With the potential to hit 5-6b ww.  Can james make this a titanic level event.

Holy Bat guano!!!

 

"Outstanding!!"

[Sheldon Cr]

10 hours ago, The Futurist said:

I thought the plan was to check if 2 & 3 were succesful enough to do 4 & 5.

 

Seems those plans have changed and  4 & 5 will happen no matter what ?

Deep down even the skeptics on the disney board know this is the Alpha movie that can turn into what so many mega franchises have failed to be.

Imagine if Jc quadruple peats after Avatar 2 puts new boundaries of what a sequel can do.

[Avatree]

10 hours ago, Pure Spirit said:

Are we supposed to pretend

These are our predictions, 50% chance it goes higher, 50% chance it goes lower

 

I'm not sure that's how that works.

[Sheldon Cr]

3 hours ago, Juby said:

 

If there was 60K screens in China in 2010 like it is now, Avatar could have made there over $1B alone. Also, Avatar's adjusted domestic gross is around $877 mln, so Endgame wouldn't have much or any advantage in its two biggest markets. Think about that.

The funny thing is endgame had zero competition until Godzilla 2 hits, while Avatar had massive movies like Sherlock Holmes(also a rdj starter) hitting it 1st orn2nd weekend and others getting its 3rd. They fazed it not 😎💪

Also they forgot the holds Avatar had. Storms were beating on it, as was competition but Avatar had massive 77 ow, then held during the wkdays for unheard of percentages and it led in to get this a 72m 2nd weekend!!!😉

If I'm not mistaken is still the best 2nd weekend drop of all time. People keep returning to a JC project like no other.

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, Sheldon Cr said:

The funny thing is endgame had zero competition until Godzilla 2 hits, while Avatar had massive movies like Sherlock Holmes(also a rdj starter) hitting it 1st orn2nd weekend and others getting its 3rd. They fazed it not 😎💪

Also they forgot the holds Avatar had. Storms were beating on it, as was competition but Avatar had massive 77 ow, then held during the wkdays for unheard of percentages and it led in to get this a 72m 2nd weekend!!!😉

If I'm not mistaken is still the best 2nd weekend drop of all time. People keep returning to a JC project like no other.

 

Christmas break boosts every movie, so while there is competition, everything does well.

[Sheldon Cr]

2 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Christmas break boosts every movie, so while there is competition, everything does well.

A smarter poster.😉 never bet against jc

[Crainy]

15 hours ago, andrewgr said:

The exchange rate is the only reason EG isn't crushing Avatar's WW record beyond recognition.  When Avatar made its run, every 10 Euros translated into $14; during EG, every 10 Euros translates into $11.  It's the same story with most major currencies.  Just a monstrously huge impact.

  

With regards to A2's chances of getting the WW record back, one good thing about A2 being delayed is that it's almost inconceivable given the political situation in the U.S. that the dollar can remain strong for another 2 years.  By the time A2 is released, it is easily conceivable that it will be even more favorable for A2 than it was for A1.  If you told me you came from the future and on the day of A2's relase, $10 Euros translated to $16, I wouldn't bat an eyelid.  I'm not predicting that big of a drop for the dollar, but the situation right now is all sorts of FUBAR, and there are a lot of ways it could play out that would make foreign governments and institiutional investors flee to Euros or the Yuan.  I would bet a kidney the dollar will be significantly weaker two years from now than it is now, I'm just not sure by how much.

If you adjust for inflation, Endgame hasnt even beaten Titanic yet. Your argument is void.

 

If you want to considere things like exchange rates and inflation, Endgame doesnt stand a chance of even hoping to reach Avatars gross. MUCH more people went to see Avatar than Endgame, even if Endgame could technically make more money in the end.

 

Of course, that doesnt diminish Endgames achievement (especially if it manages to take the crown from Avatar), but if you want to bring these kinds of analytics into the discussion, theres no doubt that Avatar was and always will be the bigger film. Infact Avatar and Titanic are the only movies of the last >30 years that would land a slot in the top 5 of highest grossing films adjusted for inflation.

[Juby]

5 hours ago, Sheldon Cr said:

If I'm not mistaken is still the best 2nd weekend drop of all time. People keep returning to a JC project like no other.

 

Only if You consider +$50 mln openers. If not, Titanic had +23,8%.