Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Elessar]

5 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

It's just one of those dumb breakfast shows at night for people not smart enough to seek out real entertainment. 

 

A breakfast show at night? 

[SnokesLegs]

43 minutes ago, adaros said:

Screen X looks crazy
 

 

It’s a terrible gimmick, don’t waste your money. It’s also only select scenes that get the full side screen usage. The projection on those screens is considerably lower quality too since they don’t use proper xenon/laser cinema projectors.

[hw64]

1 hour ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

Decided to try my hand at what I think the min/max are for this film. Basing this off of the way BOM breaks down regions….

 

MAX

Domestic = $1050M

China = $700M

EMEA = $850M

APAC = $680M

LATAM = $200M

Total = $3.48B

 

Good effort. Your overall OS-C theoretrical maximum gross of $1.73b is definitely too low, though, in my opinion. I've been conservative on ATPs and my EMEA maximum would be well above $900m.

 

What level of ticket sales relative to Avatar is this maximum based on? Is this whole analysis based more on feeling and intuition, or on a per-market analysis of exchange rates, ticket price inflation, market expansion etc.? (I assume definitely not)

Edited December 5, 2022 by hw64

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Good effort. Your overall OS-C theoretrical maximum gross of $1.73b is definitely too low, though, in my opinion. I've been conservative on ATPs and my EMEA maximum would be well above $900m.

 

What level of ticket sales relative to Avatar is this maximum based on? Is this based whole analysis based more on feeling and intuition, or on a per-market analysis of exchange rates, ticket price inflation, market expansion etc.?

Mostly based on feeling/intuition + my general understanding of the market and the dynamics at play around the globe. I think we’ve agreed in the past that you’re more bullish on Europe than I am, even on the high end of my predictions.

[adaros]

24 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

It’s a terrible gimmick, don’t waste your money. It’s also only select scenes that get the full side screen usage. The projection on those screens is considerably lower quality too since they don’t use proper xenon/laser cinema projectors.

Good to know, thanks

[Deuce66]

This was a fun watch, a look inside Quaritch's home on Earth LOL!!

 

 

 

[Sheldon Cr]

On 12/4/2022 at 1:16 PM, IronJimbo said:

reactions should be allowed but there is a review embargo

This is it ... Avatar 2 is here my brother. This is my most anticipated film in ages.. Also really happy to see the trailer for  Indy 5(Really hoping the rumors on that one are far from true or Avatar films may be the last films I watch from the mouse lol)  Cant believe its been 13 years man..  Time to show this is our land for the 2nd time!! I feel Cameron may have blown away Avatar 1 with this sequel. 

 

Lets GO!!!!

 

--This Family is our Fortress!! ;D( Kal of Bom is Excited to hear what folks say tommorrow)

[Sheldon Cr]

Whos going to those Extremely Large 4DX Theaters for their viewing ;)?(60-100 Feet one, Im likely going second week as likely sold out already lol)

[Sheldon Cr]

On 12/4/2022 at 10:07 AM, IronJimbo said:

damn sully vs quaritch knife fight gonna be good

They're showing too much now I might have to try and stop watching these

WOw

[Sheldon Cr]

51 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

It’s a terrible gimmick, don’t waste your money. It’s also only select scenes that get the full side screen usage. The projection on those screens is considerably lower quality too since they don’t use proper xenon/laser cinema projectors.

Ill take Real 3D 4DX digital  over this then. Gotta feel pandora this time.. It was wonderful enough visiting multiple times on the Super IMax 110-130 foot screen in Digital Real 3D.

 

Now though it may be a much  smaller screen( I think its a 60-80 Foot) 4DX with Avatars all involving Surround Digital 4k-8k HDR 3D and Sound with the 4DX treatment is going to be beautiful insanity ...LOL

Edited December 5, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Just updating

[hw64]

16 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

Mostly based on feeling/intuition + my general understanding of the market and the dynamics at play around the globe. I think we’ve agreed in the past that you’re more bullish on Europe than I am, even on the high end of my predictions.

 

I am, but even so, relative to some of your other maximums like $1.05b domestically which would be pretty much equivalent to the original's ticket sales or slightly lower depending on where you put the average ticket price (and that's in one of Avatar's weakest markets, whereas Europe in general is one of its strongest regions), I still personally think it's low.

 

Compared to the near-100% of Avatar's ticket sales domestically that $1.05b would represent, $850m in EMEA would be around 85% of Avatar's ticket sales at reasonable ATPs for Avatar 2, maybe slightly less with more bullish ATPs and obviously slightly more with more conservative ATPs.

[Sheldon Cr]

6 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

When trying to think if Avatar 2 is going to be spectacular, we can look to many things. The massive and expensive production with many years of planning and design, more than any Jim film to date. Quotes from the cast about the movie being better than the first. Jim's impeccable track record. The trailers, the promotational material. The articles about the films productions. Imagery, innovations. New tech. Information about the story being richer than the first. The fact Jim scrapped a script because it didn't capture the core feeling of the first film. All of that

 

but you are all missing the big one.

 

 

"I promise that what we bring to cinemas will deliver"

AND Like that James may pull the Hat Trick World breaker for the third time in a row. No director in history has ever done what hes done already with Titanic and Avatar. Not only biggest movies of all time but both amongst the most awarded and mesmorizing films of all time.. Thats just filmmaking some inches above all the rest

[SnokesLegs]

5 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Ill take Real 3D 4DX digital  over this then. Gotta feel pandora this time.. It was wonderful enough visiting multiple times on the Super IMax 110-130 foot screen in Digital Real 3D.

 

Now though it may be a much  smaller screen( I think its a 60-80 Foot) 4DX with Avatars all involving Surround Digital 4k-8k HDR 3D and Sound with the 4DX treatment is going to be beautiful insanity ...LOL

Take it from someone who used to work in a cinema with all of the premium formats, the only good ones are IMAX and Dolby.

 

4DX is just as much of a gimmick as Screen X, it’s cinema for people with ADD, and it gets really tiresome after the first hour or so. It’s great for the rides in Disney World/Universal, but not a 3 hour 12 minute film.

 

Stick with IMAX 3D, you get the expanded aspect ratio, superior sound and better 3D (especially if it’s a Laser venue).

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

I am, but even so, relative to some of your other maximums like $1.05b domestically which would be pretty much equivalent to the original's ticket sales or slightly lower depending on where you put the average ticket price (and that's in one of Avatar's weakest markets, whereas Europe in general is one of its strongest regions), I still personally think it's low.

 

Compared to the near-100% of Avatar's ticket sales domestically that $1.05b would represent, $850m in EMEA would be around 85% of Avatar's ticket sales at reasonable ATPs for Avatar 2, maybe slightly less with more bullish ATPs and obviously slightly more with more conservative ATPs.

Correct. I think the European market overall has eroded much more heavily than domestic market. I feel like “event cinema” is now stronger in the domestic market than it was in 2009. I could be wrong but I also believe that Euro/pound weakness compared to the first film is greater than the relative increase in ATP, so even if the same number of tickets are sold it’s still a 10-15% USD drop overall.

[Sheldon Cr]

7 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Take it from someone who used to work in a cinema with all of the premium formats, the only good ones are IMAX and Dolby.

 

4DX is just as much of a gimmick as Screen X, it’s cinema for people with ADD, and it gets really tiresome after the first hour or so. It’s great for the rides in Disney World/Universal, but not a 3 hour 12 minute film.

 

Stick with IMAX 3D, you get the expanded aspect ratio, superior sound and better 3D (especially if it’s a Laser venue).

 

I dont think that would be the case of Avatar.  Godzilla 2 was the most incredible 3D with all the works experience I have ever add that wasnt Avatar and thats greatly because the programming of its 4DX tech.. Felt ever stomp, car Drive. Got Wet. I dont rem if I felt heat . Chairs tilted and had my feet dangling when going down in the copter Ship..  James Cameron is going to be involved and give out settings to all the Major 4DX... No Way is anyone going to get bored with 4DX. You look up the reviews of Godzilla 2  and Spidermans 4DX ....It says alot about a proper 4DX experience is magical Snokes.

 

Unfortunately not all movies work for 4DX or chair and effects  programmed well. As a person who has

witnessed 4DX at its best and worst.

 

Its All about the settings and of course the film

being right for 4DX format. And I can think of no movie that deserves the 4DX Digital Real 3D treatment more than Avatar 2. 

Those who go for 4DX with James Stamp of Approval settings are in for a freaking out of this world experience over the original Avatar.

 

 

[Sheldon Cr]

15 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Take it from someone who used to work in a cinema with all of the premium formats, the only good ones are IMAX and Dolby.

 

4DX is just as much of a gimmick as Screen X, it’s cinema for people with ADD, and it gets really tiresome after the first hour or so. It’s great for the rides in Disney World/Universal, but not a 3 hour 12 minute film.

 

Stick with IMAX 3D, you get the expanded aspect ratio, superior sound and better 3D (especially if it’s a Laser venue).

PS I likely take your recommendation and maybe watch it once in the Gorgeous IMAX  Laser 3D format as well😉

[Alexdube]

20 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

Correct. I think the European market overall has eroded much more heavily than domestic market. I feel like “event cinema” is now stronger in the domestic market than it was in 2009. I could be wrong but I also believe that Euro/pound weakness compared to the first film is greater than the relative increase in ATP, so even if the same number of tickets are sold it’s still a 10-15% USD drop overall.

On what movies are you basing that on? What would you consider an "event movie" since 2009?

[SnokesLegs]

11 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

 

I dont think that would be the case of Avatar.  Godzilla 2 was the most incredible 3D with all the works experience I have ever add that wasnt Avatar and thats greatly because the programming of its 4DX tech.. Felt ever stomp, car Drive. Got Wet. I dont rem if I felt heat . Chairs tilted and had my feet dangling when going down in the copter Ship..  James Cameron is going to be involved and give out settings to all the Major 4DX... No Way is anyone going to get bored with 4DX. You look up the reviews of Godzilla 2  and Spidermans 4DX ....It says alot about a proper 4DX experience is magical Snokes.

 

Unfortunately not all movies work for 4DX or chair and effects  programmed well. As a person who has

witnessed 4DX at its best and worst.

 

Its All about the settings and of course the film

being right for 4DX format. And I can think of no movie that deserves the 4DX Digital Real 3D treatment more than Avatar 2. 

Those who go for 4DX with James Stamp of Approval settings are in for a freaking out of this world experience over the original Avatar.

 

 

Yeah that’s a fair point, knowing how meticulous Cameron is, I’m sure he’ll have had a hand in the programming of the effects so it’ll hopefully be better than most 4DX experiences (words cannot describe how awful Jurassic World was for me in this format). You might want to take a raincoat though, I’d imagine the rain and water effects will be working overtime!

 

However you watch it, hope you enjoy it!🙂

Edited December 5, 2022 by SnokesLegs

[Sheldon Cr]

Glad the correction is now out there. James was talking the domestic not worldwide. Lets stop the 2billion hating nonsense.

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

13 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

On what movies are you basing that on? What would you consider an "event movie" since 2009?

Tier 1 = TFA, Endgame 

Tier 2 = Avengers, JW, Black Panther, Infinity War, NWH, TGM