Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Verrows]

28 minutes ago, KlapEastwood said:

My final prediction:

 

$134 million OW

$387 million DOM

$887 million INT

$1.2 billion WW

 

I think this will ultimately play like a super-inflated Sci-Fi pic.

This is even crazier than the wildly optimistic predictions.

 

Not a chance. Internationally this is going to be one of the biggest movie events ever. If not THE biggest. We'll see.

 

Domestically it's not on that level of an event, but my most pessimistic predict is something like $550M (barring a much lower OW than we all expect).

[Torontofan]

Just now, KlapEastwood said:

I may be lowballing, but I definitely can't justify the hype. The one thing swinging in the original's favor just isn't that big of a deal now. Spider-Man had the massive 2021 breakout, and Top Gun scored 2022's. It's easy to see why  both of those broke out... why would Avatar?

China would be the huge boost, and from what I can tell Covid is surging again? Avatar 2 just doesn't have much working in its favor for the massive leg show that was Cameron's last two. No competition is a relative term right now. If a decent chunk of people decide to see something else, it will very much have competition. Or they'll just stay home.

 

Its not that this film is breaking out 

 

Its a sequel to an all time hit. 

[ThomasNicole]

After dropping to 83% with 109 reviews, it just back up to 84% with 114 reviews and still 7.4 average

 

At this point i think it'll enter that point where it will fluctuate between 82-85% until it settles down 

 

Some would argue that maybe this can go under 80% in the next day or so, which obviously can happen. But since this is not behaving like the usual RT reveals, i think it's safe to assume is *probably* gonna finish in low 80's on RT exactly like Avatar 1.

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Down 1 to 84% from 114 reviews.

That's actually up 1, not down.

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, KlapEastwood said:

I may be lowballing, but I definitely can't justify the hype. The one thing swinging in the original's favor just isn't that big of a deal now. Spider-Man had the massive 2021 breakout, and Top Gun scored 2022's. It's easy to see why  both of those broke out... why would Avatar?

China would be the huge boost, and from what I can tell Covid is surging again? Avatar 2 just doesn't have much working in its favor for the massive leg show that was Cameron's last two. No competition is a relative term right now. If a decent chunk of people decide to see something else, it will very much have competition. Or they'll just stay home.

Dude its literally impossible to go as low as you're prediciting. Its going to have a worldwide opening around 600mil, which would mean 2 times legs to hit your 1.2bil total, at Christmas time, with good reviews, and little competition.

Even if the film had absolutely terrible reviews, it would do more than 2x legs at Christmas time.

 

Its 'literally' impossible bud. 2bil is locked and its going to go way higher than that.

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

That's actually up 1, not down.

It was at 85 from 107 reviews.

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, KlapEastwood said:

I may be lowballing, but I definitely can't justify the hype. The one thing swinging in the original's favor just isn't that big of a deal now. Spider-Man had the massive 2021 breakout, and Top Gun scored 2022's. It's easy to see why  both of those broke out... why would Avatar?

China would be the huge boost, and from what I can tell Covid is surging again? Avatar 2 just doesn't have much working in its favor for the massive leg show that was Cameron's last two. No competition is a relative term right now. If a decent chunk of people decide to see something else, it will very much have competition. Or they'll just stay home.

You aren't just predicting a "doesn't break out" scenario. You're not even predicting "normal well received" christmas blockbuster legs for the film. You are predicting worse legs than Rise of Skywalker, which is probably about as low a christmas blockbuster multiplier as I can find. Being bearish is one thing, but this is just ridicolous.

 

[danziger]

 

"The kids really steal the show in this one and they deliver on a very emotional level ... the character building is wonderful."

 

"I've talked to so many people that were not fans of the first movie that wind up loving this movie and want to go back."

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

It was at 85 from 107 reviews.

I had 83 at 109, so...

[Sheldon Cr]

8 hours ago, stuart360 said:

A new fan made trailer, but really cool.

Gets the blood pumping.🤩

 

 

 

Checking it out shortly Brother Stuart!

[AniNate]

FYI the China covid surge has started fading, so things are honestly looking pretty good there now too

[Dragoncaine]

I'm seeing back up to 85% with 117 reviews but the site still hasn't stabilized haha

[stuart360]

3 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I had 83 at 109, so...

Dude its not a competition lol. It was at 85 from 107 reviews for a pretty long time too. Its even posted in this very thread if you look back 3 or 4 pages.

[Verrows]

2 minutes ago, AniNate said:

FYI the China covid surge has started fading, so things are honestly looking pretty good there now too

I feel like the government there is more obsessed with covid than the people. The people will show up to the theatre.

[JustLurking]

Just now, Verrows said:

I feel like the government there is more obsessed with covid than the people. The people will show up to the theatre.

When showing up to the theatre has a high risk of landing you in quarantine, the people will definitely be wary of covid.

[Sheldon Cr]

9 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

It was at 85 from 107 reviews.

 

 

Can this get to the 90s .., ???    " LETS GET IT DONE!"

😁

[AniNate]

Honestly I don't think there is much to complain about externalities wise with this movie's release. Covid at the moment remains relatively at bay on a global scale and the one big political holdout has finally started to relent, reviews on par with the first one, and a pretty clear road for legs. However it performs right now is probably as well as it was ever going to perform.

[AniNate]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

When showing up to the theatre has a high risk of landing you in quarantine, the people will definitely be wary of covid.

 

I mean, there really isn't that much of a chance of it relative to casual meetings with family

[Sheldon Cr]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

When showing up to the theatre has a high risk of landing you in quarantine, the people will definitely be wary of covid.

Seems the president wants this movie to do well .SO hopefully hes promoting to becareful but have a good time. 

Alot of  our asian brothers and sisters seem to still be exciting and posting tickets. So Im feeling very happy right now for Chinas Run

[JustLurking]

Just now, AniNate said:

 

I mean, there really isn't that much of a chance of it relative to casual meetings with family

china's policies will land you in quarantine even if you didn't catch it as long as someone near you did.