Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[JustLurking]

I'm seeing 83 on 109 reviews.

[kayumanggi]

7 hours ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Looks like China may be more problematic than we hoped. According to some users in China, there’s a lot of pushback about the re-opening and a general COVID hesitancy. I’m hopeful it still goes over $450M but it sucks to think what it could miss. 
 

COVID and ER issues will probably cost this film $650-850M worldwide. 

 

Whatever the numbers are, I consider this film lucky to get a China release.

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

mid 80s RT is a big win guys, hopefully it holds

My general rule of thumb is whatever the rating is at 100 reviews, just subtract 5 and that’ll be the final rating. Of course, after OD the critics rating doesn’t really matter.

[The Dark Rock]

11 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I'm seeing 83 on 109 reviews.

 

Same. 

[Sophia Jane]

4 minutes ago, hw64 said:

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-preview-prediction-1235197950/

 

From Deadline: $175m domestic, $350m overseas opening weekend (made up of $100m from China and $250m elsewhere).

They give NWH 380m perdiction

Edited December 13, 2022 by Bruce

[dignam]

RT above 80%, MC above 70%, many nominees, i pretty sure we will see BO history again, maybe not in the first week but this movie will pull a tsunami again like the first one. It will start slow, and than gets stronger and stronger.

Edited December 13, 2022 by dignam

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-preview-prediction-1235197950/

 

From Deadline: $175m domestic, $350m overseas opening weekend (made up of $100m from China and $250m elsewhere).

China will be at least $50M more than that. No clue about openings in any other OS market though.

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, hw64 said:

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-preview-prediction-1235197950/

 

From Deadline: $175m domestic, $350m overseas opening weekend (made up of $100m from China and $250m elsewhere).

I could handle a 525mil WW OW, in fact i mentioned it getting a 500mil WW OW the other day in here.

Having said that, i do feel they are lowballing China's opening a touch, unless those predicts coming out of China are waaay off the mark. Of course they could be being conservative due to the covid problems there.

[hw64]

Just now, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

China will be at least $50M more than that. No clue about openings in any other OS market though.

 

Deadline are awful at predicting overseas openings. The $250m overseas outside of China is a big lowball as well.

[interiorgatordecorator]

4 minutes ago, hw64 said:

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-preview-prediction-1235197950/

 

From Deadline: $175m domestic, $350m overseas opening weekend (made up of $100m from China and $250m elsewhere).

 

do you agree?

[JustLurking]

It will go lower DOM but likely higher both china and os-c imo. Thinking 575-600 range.

Edited December 13, 2022 by JustLurking

[Flamengo81]

6 minutes ago, hw64 said:

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-preview-prediction-1235197950/

 

From Deadline: $175m domestic, $350m overseas opening weekend (made up of $100m from China and $250m elsewhere).

Just 100m from China? I don't think even the more pessimistic predictions would suggest that...

[ZeeSoh]

6 minutes ago, hw64 said:

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-preview-prediction-1235197950/

 

From Deadline: $175m domestic, $350m overseas opening weekend (made up of $100m from China and $250m elsewhere).

They are lowballing it,. Dom seems fine but OS imo is low and China is too low. World Cup final can affect things OS on the weekend but I still think 250m OS-C is low. 

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I could handle a 525mil WW OW, in fact i mentioned it getting a 500mil WW OW the other day in here.

Having said that, i do feel they are lowballing China's opening a touch, unless those predicts coming out of China are waaay off the mark. Of course they could be being conservative due to the covid problems there.

 

3 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Deadline are awful at predicting overseas openings. The $250m overseas outside of China is a big lowball as well.

Their OS prediction definitely seems conservative to me. Probably by $100M. I’m still sitting in the mid-150s for domestic OW.

[Maggie]

11 minutes ago, hw64 said:

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-preview-prediction-1235197950/

 

From Deadline: $175m domestic, $350m overseas opening weekend (made up of $100m from China and $250m elsewhere).

Quote

 

    19 hours ago, Porthos said:

    Avg predict so far:          176.02m

    Median predict so far:    176.77m

    Guess we know the O/U line then!

 

[ImNotExcited]

If it opens to 175 in the states 580 would be the floor in my book.

[KlapEastwood]

My final prediction:

 

$134 million OW

$387 million DOM

$887 million INT

$1.2 billion WW

 

I think this will ultimately play like a super-inflated Sci-Fi pic.

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Their OS prediction definitely seems conservative to me. Probably by $100M. I’m still sitting in the mid-150s for domestic OW.

Yeah i def see it being closer to 600mil than 500mil.

In fact i feel it could go over 600mil.

[hw64]

11 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

do you agree?

 

The domestic prediction I agree with even if a lot of people here don't, but the overseas and China grosses are way too low.

 

For me, it's a $650-$720m global opening if COVID hesistancy in China doesn't affect the opening weekend too much (big question mark at the moment).

Edited December 13, 2022 by hw64

[TwoMisfits]

 

So, if I'm reading this right, Disney and theaters are literally charging an average ticket price $2.79 about last week's $12.04 average or a 23.17% average ticket price increase...dang...

 

I know no one paid for premium probably last weekend, but dang...even the just 2d standard is above last week...

 

PS - And I guess my area is not far above the average - right now, it's $20.75, $19.25, and $16.75 here...

Edited December 13, 2022 by TwoMisfits