Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Elessar]

It will definitely outopen the original but i don't think to something ridiculous, like $150m and up, more like $120m. And if it's good, which i have no doubt of, it should have a multiplier of 4+.

[Neo]

I don't think Avatar developed a big enough following. Not neccessarily because it isn't a great movie, it just isn't your typical fanboy movie. The same way a sequel to Titanic wouldn't automatically come anywhere close to the original. And there's that been there done that feeling with a sequel. It kinda needs to win over audiences all over again.

A sequel to Titanic would have been equivalent to one of those disaster DtTV movies. Wouldn't have worked.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

A sequel to Titanic can actually work ... IMO

[Jessie]

I don't think Avatar developed a big enough following. Not neccessarily because it isn't a great movie, it just isn't your typical fanboy movie. The same way a sequel to Titanic wouldn't automatically come anywhere close to the original. And there's that been there done that feeling with a sequel. It kinda needs to win over audiences all over again.

That's everyone mistake on here. Just because it isn't a typical fanboy movie that doesn't mean the GA aren't that bothered. Most people use Internet polls and fanboys opinion on movies to predict box office. Example, 'no-one on these clubs talk about Avatar on here so the GA have forgotten it' :unsure:Its simple, if a movie is part of a franchise or existing story like a comic, more people on forums talk about it. This is why people on here are stupid enough to think massive original blockbuster hits like ID4 or Avatar have been forgotten simply because there's not anyone ever talking about them. Edited July 29, 2013 by Jessie

[fishstick]

Big following is a curse and a blessing. Blessing because it give you big OW. Curse because it limits interest to that of following only. Titanic and Avatar succeeded precisely because they didn't have limit in the following. Everyone who wnated to see them, saw them without preconception.

 

Also, movies like Adam Sandler hits don't have people talking about them 24-7 but they make money. It's silent majority that matters. Think POTC 4. OS boxoffice came out of the left field precisely because nobody was talking about POTC.But not talking doesn't necessarily mean not going to see.

Edited July 29, 2013 by fishnets

[Elessar]

That's everyone mistake on here. Just because it isn't a typical fanboy movie that doesn't mean the GA aren't that bothered. Most people use Internet polls and fanboys opinion on movies to predict box office. Example, 'no-one on these clubs talk about Avatar on here so the GA have forgotten it' :unsure:Its simple, if a movie is part of a franchise or existing story like a comic, more people on forums talk about it. This is why people on here are stupid enough to think massive original blockbuster hits like ID4 or Avatar have been forgotten simply because there's not anyone ever talking about them.

 

I can see an $120m opening, which is far from being forgotten. I just don't think it'll open to these massive numbers a $760m grosser would suggest. With such an opening it has to heavily rely on WOM again. I don't doubt WOM will be good but "OMG YOU HAVE TO SEE IT!!!" good? Cameron is a moviemaking God to me but even he is not churning out phenomenons after phenomenons. T2 was amazing as far as i'm concerned yet it doesn't come anywhere near his biggest movies in terms of gross.

[Dementeleus]

I can see an $120m opening, which is far from being forgotten. I just don't think it'll open to these massive numbers a $760m grosser would suggest. With such an opening it has to heavily rely on WOM again. I don't doubt WOM will be good but "OMG YOU HAVE TO SEE IT!!!" good? Cameron is a moviemaking God to me but even he is not churning out phenomenons after phenomenons. T2 was amazing as far as i'm concerned yet it doesn't come anywhere near his biggest movies in terms of gross.

 

It's his third-biggest, was a monster when it was released, and adjusts to 400m today -- not shabby at all for an R-rated movie.

[Elessar]

I know.

[vc2002]

I know.

No, no, no, no. You gotta listen to the way people talk. You don't say "I know," or some shit like that. You say "you bet your ass I know! What do you think I am? Stupid?"

[Dementeleus]

Chill out, dickwad.

[vc2002]

Chill out, dickwad.

Take a hike, bozo.

[Dementeleus]

//shoots vc2002 in the kneecap.

[vc2002]

//shoots vc2002 in the kneecap.

 

I'll live.

[Dementeleus]

[Elessar]

[Jessie]

I can see an $120m opening, which is far from being forgotten. I just don't think it'll open to these massive numbers a $760m grosser would suggest. With such an opening it has to heavily rely on WOM again. I don't doubt WOM will be good but "OMG YOU HAVE TO SEE IT!!!" good? Cameron is a moviemaking God to me but even he is not churning out phenomenons after phenomenons. T2 was amazing as far as i'm concerned yet it doesn't come anywhere near his biggest movies in terms of gross.

It's hard to predict its OW until we see a trailer. Imagine if it looks absolutely brilliant and has amazing reviews? It's OW can go as high as 200m if all the right boxes get ticked.

[Neo]

It's hard to predict its OW until we see a trailer. Imagine if it looks absolutely brilliant and has amazing reviews? It's OW can go as high as 200m if all the right boxes get ticked.

200M in December would mean 900M+ with a shot at 1B DOM.

[vc2002]

200M in December would mean 900M+ with a shot at 1B DOM.

 

1B DOM would mean 5B OS.

 

Sounds legit, for a Neo prediction.

Edited July 30, 2013 by vc2002

[stuart360]

This isn't a Harry Potter or Twilight, its not that kind of fanboy film and i would expect an opening at about 150mil tops, it then 'only' needs 5 times legs to get to the first films gross, not out of the realms of possibility when the first film had 10 times legs, especially over the Christmas period.

Worldwide is a different matter completely, it could gross anything with the way the international scene has blown up over the last few years.

[Elessar]

It's hard to predict its OW until we see a trailer. Imagine if it looks absolutely brilliant and has amazing reviews? It's OW can go as high as 200m if all the right boxes get ticked.

 

See, i think $200m is ridiculous. Not gonna happen. No matter what.