Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[kowhite]

You see Avengers 2 doubling Avengers' OS gross?

Yeah, that seems...optimistic...to put it mildly.

[Walt Disney]

250M Domestic Walt??? I could only imagine the SEVERE Meltdown this would create going from such massively high predictions like the one Kal predicts at 850M plus Domestic down to 250M Domestic.. The dude would inch his way out on the ledge painted in blue clutching a picture of Cameron before leaping to his death..  

 

I am sticking with 495M domestic for Avatar 2. I think that the first one went as high as this franchise will go and I see it decreasing domestically. It may not decrease as much as I think that it will, but I am sticking with the prediction.

[Walt Disney]

You see Avengers 2 doubling Avengers' OS gross?

 

Yes. I think that the brand will grow huge OS because of the name value of The Avengers franchise. IM3 did amazing OS, and Iron Man will be back for TA2.

 

I do mostly care about domestic, so my predictions for OS and WW might be wrong. However, that's my prediction. I am willing to accept that I could be wrong.

[Elessar]

Right. And that's my point. Logic says this should decrease, but logic doesn't apply to James Cameron. So anything is in play for this movie. For now, I see it hitting about 650m (don't fault me for that.. it's still an incredible total) and matching its overseas run. End of the day, I see this hitting around 2.6 billion. That's illogical, but somehow not crazy because of Cameron's genius. 

 

While Cameron is God (imho) logic WILL apply here. Titanic was an unknown, Avatar was an unknown, Avatar 2 is a sequel and not a sequel to a little film called Terminator. While sequels tend to be more of a safe bet they also lack the freshness, the excitement of the "new" and hence i feel the max potential a sequel can gross is lower. Avatar 2 WILL decrease, domestically as well as overseas, and i don't mean like "minimum $550m domestically", it could go further down. It wouldn't surprise me at all if it fails to hit $2b worldwide. No shame, it would still be a MASIVE hit.

Edited January 18, 2014 by Elessar

[The Stingray]

I think both will do around 550m domestically. Avatar 2 will destroy everything worldwide tho.

[Elessar]

Kal would say otherwise..

 

Avengers 2 will decrease as well.

[Jessie]

You and I might just be the only one's who are in it for the Domestic than WW.. To me, the guage of success for a movie is how well it does Domestically.. I do acknowledge the WW Number, but seems it's only brought into the equation when a movie doesn't do well Domestically and the WW number is used to save face and make the movie seem like it did better than it really did..

That's just silly, money is money at the end of the day. WW gross is more important than Domestic when it's a movie like Avatar or Avengers. Typical Americans. Edited January 18, 2014 by Jessie

[Neo]

Avatar 2: OW 145M , Dom 495M, WW 2.8B

 

Avengers 2: OW 215M, Dom 530M, WW 2.2B

Will take a bet that Avatar makes more than 500M+

 

[Shaldun]

That's just silly, money is money at the end of the day. WW gross is more important than Domestic when it's a movie like Avatar or Avengers. Typical Americans.

I totally agree.. A lot of movies are made only for OS audiences (POTC, Ice Age or Transformers franchise for example) and even for global success, WW is still more important. Studios don't care from where the money come.

[Elessar]

I wouldn't say those movies were made only for OS audiences but OS money is important for sure. Yes, they don't get as much from the pie OS but what they get is still in many cases more than what they make stateside.

Edited January 18, 2014 by Elessar

[Shaldun]

I wouldn't say those movies were made only for OS audiences but OS money is important for sure. Yes, they don't get as much from the pie OS but what they get is still in many cases more than what they make stateside.

Yes obviously all tentpoles are made for the world (and not US) as a target. I would like to see Pacific Rim have a sequel too and it's still possible. If that happens, it will be mainly (only ?) thanks to China. OS markets have always been important and they are becoming more and more. 

[Walt Disney]

Will take a bet that Avatar makes more than 500M+

 

I'm not interested in betting. I already win a $20 Amazon gift card if I am right and it costs me nothing if I am wrong.

[Neo]

Zoe Saldana Talks Avatar Sequels

[kayumanggi]

I am sticking with 495M domestic for Avatar 2. I think that the first one went as high as this franchise will go and I see it decreasing domestically. It may not decrease as much as I think that it will, but I am sticking with the prediction.

 

I just wonder, if you think it may not decrease as much as you think it will, why stick with 495 M?

[kayumanggi]

You and I might just be the only one's who are in it for the Domestic than WW.. To me, the guage of success for a movie is how well it does Domestically.. I do acknowledge the WW Number, but seems it's only brought into the equation when a movie doesn't do well Domestically and the WW number is used to save face and make the movie seem like it did better than it really did..

 

[Jessie]

I totally agree.. A lot of movies are made only for OS audiences (POTC, Ice Age or Transformers franchise for example) and even for global success, WW is still more important. Studios don't care from where the money come.

 

Yeah, this is why despite Catching Fire exceeding expectations domestically and winning the year, Lionsgate are actually disappointed in its gross because the overseas gross didn't expand as much as they'd hoped.

[kayumanggi]

Yeah, this is why despite Catching Fire exceeding expectations domestically and winning the year, Lionsgate are actually disappointed in its gross because the overseas gross didn't expand as much as they'd hoped.

 

Disappointed?

[Dementeleus]

Why would Lionsgate be disappointed? It only cost 130m or so.

[Heat Vision]

When would be the release date for the second sequel? 2017?

Edited January 20, 2014 by Heat Vision

[Jessie]

Why would Lionsgate be disappointed? It only cost 130m or so.

Because some idiot box office analysis pegged the movie at 900m so the stocks suffered because of it.