Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, peludo said:

Titanic will remain to be the most impressive run WW ever. No matters if some films start to outgross it in unadjusted figures. Nothing gets close to it. Not even Avatar.

 

Concerning Avatar, with current ERs (not applying inflation), it would have done today about $2.47b, not $2.79b.

it was the highest grossing film in china at the time, so you should assume it would have done at least $500m from there now.

 

then add in inflation and we're at what? 3.2b

Edited April 30, 2018 by IronJimbo

[peludo]

3 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Gives me some hope A2 can really go crazy in China.

Absolutely. There is no doubt about it. It did $200m in 2010. It is obvious that Avatar was loved there. It will increase for sure.

 

How much it can do? That is really hard to predict. We do not know either if people will become crazy for this again as it happened with first part. It can go as "low" as 400-500 or become a billion film in China. I think that second option is more probable, but who knows... It is too early.

[peludo]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

it was the highest grossing film in china at the time, so you should assume it would have done at least $500m from there now.

 

then add in inflation and we're at what? 3.2b

The problem is what ticket price do we apply for so bloated films like this because 3D or IMAX? It had an incredible 3D ratio. Would it had had the same 3D ratio today? For example, it is said that Avatar sold 76 million admissions in USA, what means about $10 per ticket. Today the average ticket price in USA is $9.18, still lower. Applying inflation to films like this is close to impossible. I prefer the admissions figures for that reason.

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, peludo said:

The problem is what ticket price do we apply for so bloated films like this because 3D or IMAX? It had an incredible 3D ratio. Would it had had the same 3D ratio today? For example, it is said that Avatar sold 76 million admissions in USA, what means about $10 per ticket. Today the average ticket price in USA is $9.18, still lower. Applying inflation to films like this is close to impossible. I prefer the admissions figures for that reason.

that really seems like a pointless to say how Avatar would have performed today... without Avatar being released in the first place who knows where 3D would be right now.

[peludo]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

that really seems like a pointless to say how Avatar would have performed today... without Avatar being released in the first place who knows where 3D would be right now.

For that reason I prefer admissions figures. There is no possible distortion with ERs or inflation.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, peludo said:

For that reason I prefer admissions figures. There is no possible distortion with ERs or inflation.

Yeah it's probably better that way but what I mean is that if Avatar was never released we may not have seen hollywood run 3D dry in the first place, then if it was released today we see a 3D boom like in 2009 and the ticket price average shoots up.

Point is for a movie with such massive influence, changing it's release date also changes too much in the future.

 

Trying to estimate how Avatar would have done in a different release date would take far more than just multiplying the admissions by the average ticket price for that year.

[Deuce66]

All of this talk won't matter - we're still 32 months away from A2 (sounds depressing I know), the news cycle these days is like 24-72 hours max and people have moved on to other stuff, who knows where Marvel will be in two-three years with their stories.  

[peludo]

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Yeah it's probably better that way but what I mean is that if Avatar was never released we may not have seen hollywood run 3D dry in the first place, then if it was released today we see a 3D boom like in 2009 and the ticket price average shoots up.

Point is for a movie with such massive influence, changing it's release date also changes too much in the future.

 

Trying to estimate how Avatar any film would have done in a different release date would take far more than just multiplying the admissions by the average ticket price for that year.

Fixed

 

For that reason we could just sum admissions figures instead multiplying by average ticket prices.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, peludo said:

Fixed

 

For that reason we could just sum admissions figures instead multiplying by average ticket prices.

total admissions is a good measure yes.

[Lothar]

3 hours ago, Box Office Theory Fan said:

I think that we will see Avatar be beaten soon by Avengers  

 

Then maybe in 2020 we will see how good Avatar 2 is and see if can retake the crown! 

[IronJimbo]

 

Jim thinks we're fucked very soon.

[IronJimbo]

James Cameron's Science fiction story airs tonight on AMC at 10/9c aswell

[Lothar]

5 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Jim thinks we're fucked very soon.

He's a scientist. Look at him how he's explaining everything. 

Wonder what other directors are doing 

[Lothar]

14 hours ago, Box Office Theory Fan said:

I think that we will see Avatar be beaten soon by Avengers  

 

Then maybe in 2020 we will see how good Avatar 2 is and see if can retake the crown! 

You need 32 well known actors and actresses with 80 years of comic to beat Avatar ? That's bad

2 Directors were in hurry so they made a movie with 32 actors and actresses like a video game. Complete trash. 

They couldn't explain complete story.

You need to watch Lord of the Rings to know how story should be explained.

Then watch Avatar to blue your mind. When you people are done with Avengers I'll tell you how it's a shit CGI movie.

 

[dashrendar44]

On 01/05/2018 at 6:20 AM, Lothar said:

He's a scientist. Look at him how he's explaining everything. 

Wonder what other directors are doing 

 

 

You should watch that Titanic special from 2012 (The Final Word) when Cameron is teaming with engineers and researchers fending off about water dynamics and hydraulics using latest technologies to re-assess what exactly happened compared to the movie which was a hypothesis based on what scientists knew back then.

 

They built a miniature to reproduce the conditions in which the Titanic broke in two. At one point, after Cameron explained his theory about the boat's exact breaking point and how to rig the miniature to perfect the conditions, he gets a bit fed up after few mishaps and goes "You guys didn't listen to me when I told you to do this and that. That's why the experience fails".

 

Those experts are like

 

 

I have never seen an artist/director so enthralled and knowledgeable about the science behind the movies he makes. Most directors will claim imagination and suspension of disbelief supercede everything in fiction, not even bothering to come up with a theoretical approach to what they depict because "poetic license". OTOH, Cameron, as an avid technological forecaster, can hold his ground, discuss technology and theories with NASA engineers, hydraulics experts and oceanographs so he can keep tabs and debate on real life scientific researchs to enrich and inform his stories. Also he has a knack to break it down in layman's terms. The guy could have been an hydraulic engineering college professor, a concept designer or a hard scifi novel writer with equal might. (Considering he's a drop-out that drove trucks for a living, that's mighty impressive and awe-inspiring).

Edited May 5, 2018 by dashrendar44

[IronJimbo]

3 hours ago, dashrendar44 said:

 

You should watch that Titanic special from 2012 (The Final Word) when Cameron is teaming with engineers and researchers fending off about water dynamics and hydraulics using latest technologies to re-assess what exactly happened compared to the movie which was a hypothesis based on what scientists knew back then.

 

They built a miniature to reproduce the conditions in which the Titanic broke in two. At one point, after Cameron explained his theory about the boat's exact breaking point and how to rig the miniature to perfect the conditions, he gets a bit fed up after few mishaps and goes "You guys didn't listen to me when I told you to do this and that. That's why the experience fails".

 

Those experts are like

 

 

I have never seen an artist/director so enthralled and knowledgeable about the science behind the movie he makes. Most directors will claim imagination and suspension of disbelief supercede everything in fiction, not even bothering to come up with a theoretical approach to what they depict because "poetic license". OTOH, Cameron, as an avid technological forecaster, can hold his ground, discuss technology and theories with NASA engineers, hydraulics experts and oceanographs so he can keep tabs and debate on real life scientific researchs to enrich and inform his stories. Also he has a knack to break it down in layman's terms. The guy could have been an hydraulic engineering college professor, a concept designer or a hard scifi novel writer. (Considering he's a drop-out that drove trucks for a living, that's mighty impressive and awe-inspiring).

He's a living legend that no one seems to know about, it's nice to know some other people are knowledgable about him.

 

 

[IronJimbo]

If the worst comes to worst and somehow something beats Avatar's worldwide gross before 2020 (IW4, Lion King... etc), then Jim will just remind studio first film-making that brilliance will always prevail in the end with Avatar 2.

Edited May 1, 2018 by IronJimbo

[Spartan117]

Don't think Lion King remake would make that much money. Personally I don't feel it. 

[vc2002]

 

[NCsoft]

14 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

If the worst comes to worst and somehow something beats Avatar's worldwide gross before 2020 (IW4, Lion King... etc), then Jim will just remind studio first film-making that brilliance will always prevail in the end with Avatar 2.

I don't think that'll happen at all, I think TLK's worldwide box office potential, while great, has been severely overestimated. I also think despite the fact that Avengers 4 being the actual conclusion of the current phase, IW has been promoted that way so general audiences will get slightly fatigued next year, I think Avengers 4 will do great but will  fall below IW, especially worldwide. So really, imminent threat for Avatar is IW, except that it is not really a threat, it is more of a threat for Titanic, which sadly, I concede is within IW's shooting range (upper upper range though), we'll see what happens with next few weeks.

 

And the other sad thing is, we seem to be able to pinpoint exactly the usual suspects that could challenge box office records these days. We know TLK remake, Avengers 4, Frozen 2, EP9 will be big next year, and no other film will approach their box office, we can say this with almost 100% certainty. What happened to films that came out and blow everyone's mind and blows up in box office? like Jaws, ET, A new hope, Jurassic World, Titanic, Avatar etc......

 

Edited May 2, 2018 by NCsoft