The Dark Knight Rises OS Discussion Thread/700M+ OS CLUB

[CJohn]

Spain, but that country is in the shit, piracy rules, and people don't care about going to the theaters.

[kswiston]

Not really.400M+ DOM; 700M+ OS will do that.

400+700 = $1.1BTo get your $1.28B number it would need $500M domestic and almost $800M overseas (or $550M dom and $730M overseas). I don't see that happening. Unless next week's overseas expansion leads to a massive second weekend worldwide (like $250-300M including the domestic take), I think $1.05-1.1B is a more realistic expectation for now.EDIT: I misread your number (sitting too far from my PC!). You said 1.2B not 1.28B. Sorry about that!Still, I think closer to $1.1B is likely if the film doesn't debut in China. Edited July 25, 2012 by kswiston

[Olive]

400+700 = $1.1BTo get your $1.28B number it would need $500M domestic and almost $800M overseas (or $550M dom and $730M overseas). I don't see that happening. Unless next week's overseas expansion leads to a massive second weekend worldwide (like $250-300M including the domestic take), I think $1.05-1.1B is a more realistic expectation for now.

500+800=1300my current prediction: 470+730

[Olive]

Most Asian markets will double TDK's gross, and China alone could contribute 80-100M.

[kswiston]

500+800=1300my current prediction: 470+730

I misread his post and thought he was predicting 1.28B (1280M), which I thought was really high. My mistake though.I still think $730 overseas is very optimistic, but we will see this weekend.

Most Asian markets will double TDK's gross, and China alone could contribute 80-100M.

If the film opens in China. I was under the impression that it may not following the shooting. Edited July 25, 2012 by kswiston

[Olive]

If the film opens in China. I was under the impression that it may not following the shooting.

No, the shooting didn't affect anything here in China.We are just waiting for the release date to be announced.

[Olive]

Asia TDK TDKR

China 0 90M

HK 7.55M 10.5M

India 3.65M 9.5M

Indonesia 2.78M 6M

Israel 2.5M 2.2M

Japan 14.6M 23M

Lebanon 0.4M 0.7M

Malaysia 2.66M 6.2M

Philippines 3.3M 6.6M

Singapore 3.64M 7.4M

Korea 25M 45M

Taiwan 6.7M 12M

Thailand 2.63M 4.2M

UAE 2.54M 4.5M

78M 220M

TDKR's predictions are based on each markets OW.

Edited July 25, 2012 by Invincible Olive

[A Marvel Fanboy]

No, the shooting didn't affect anything here in China.We are just waiting for the release date to be announced.

And you still believe in a China release (at this point, after all these) ?Chinese gov. wont agree and TDKR does not need China either. Edited July 25, 2012 by firedeep

[keysersoze123]

And you still believe in a China release (at this point, after all these) ?Chinese gov. wont agree and TDKR does not need China either.

Variety/HR already confirmed TDKR release just late last week. I am told approval is done. Just finalizing dates. WB wants it moved after 8/30.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Variety/HR already confirmed TDKR release just late last week. I am told approval is done. Just finalizing dates. WB wants it moved after 8/30.

Many Hollywood films had got approval before but never seen in Chinese theaters. The A-Team, for example, was just canceled right at the night before opening. WB has terrible relationship with Chinese government. Stranger things had happened. And all I know is CCTV and many official newspapers are bashing TDKR as the culture of violence.

[peludo]

Spain, but that country is in the shit, piracy rules, and people don't care about going to the theaters.

Sad, but absolutely true .However, it has opened with a very similar number to TDK. It has done 3.5 million €. TDK did a 3 million € 3-day / 4.9 million € 5-day (Wednesday release). Spain and whole eurozone has a problem regarding the 2008 situation: euro has plummeted. In Summer 2008, 1 € = 1.5 $. Today, 1 € = 1.2 $. That's a 20% drop because of this. TDK grossed 16 million $. That would be 12.8 million $ with actual exchange rate. If you add inflation 2008-2012 we could have seen about 13.5-14 million $ for TDK today. I think that's the objective to see if TDKR is doing better or don't than TDK. And I think it's reachable.

[Olive]

And you still believe in a China release (at this point, after all these) ?Chinese gov. wont agree and TDKR does not need China either.

It didn't affect anything.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

It didn't affect anything.

We'll see.

[JCS]

No weekly OS numbers?

[Letsuseournoggin]

Seems like OS may be TDKRs only saving grace now.

[redfirebird2008]

Apparently the advertising is poor, the local distributor doesn't care about it, and Russians love 3D, you lose many screens with a 2D movie.TDK grossed 8m there, and 22m is expected for TDKR, so it's a real improvement but for this kind of blockbuster under 30m is bad..The Avengers grossed 43m there, Transformers 3 grossed 45m and DH2 grossed 36m.Even John Carter grossed 33m.

I'd be pretty happy with a $14m improvement over TDK. It's only one market out of many and if every one of them is equal or bigger than TDK, then it's going to do great overseas (probably $600-650m).

[peludo]

I'd be pretty happy with a $14m improvement over TDK. It's only one market out of many and if every one of them is equal or bigger than TDK, then it's going to do great overseas (probably $600-650m).

Exactly. That would be a 175% increase. I think TDKR will do quite better than TDK. For instance, I didn't go to watch BB or TDK, and I have just watched it today (in my opinion, the movie is just AMAZING), with other 5 friends that had not watched both movies. All of us have enjoyed a lot. 10 years ago that I didn't see people clapping in the theater. I think TDKR can surpass TDK gross even in Spain. And I will watch it more times...

[Olive]

Through Tuesday, the movie's domestic gross was just north of $198 million, slightly behind The Dark Knight, which had earned $203.8 million. Overseas, it has earned an outstanding $110 million.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-dark-knight-rises-shooting-354624

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Due to the strong opening in France, 750M OS is well in play.

Edited July 26, 2012 by firedeep

[peludo]

Due to the strong opening in France, 750M OS is well in play.

In my opinion, 650-700 is the target for the moment. I'm not saying it can't reach 750, but for the moment I think is too high. I need to see grosses by Sunday to increase the number. And for the record, 750 million would make TDKR the biggest 2D OS grosser, over ROTK's 742 million. Edited July 26, 2012 by peludo