Saban's Power Rangers | March 24, 2017 | Teaser Trailer on Page 47

[bcf26]

@CJohn

Have you seen the movie?

Did you watch at the 12am midnight screeing or 2am screening?

[The Futurist]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

This is shit. I am guessing hardcore Power Rangers fans will enjoy it. I, however, won't return for your 6 movie arc plan Lionsgate.

 

You are fake news and you know it.

 

 

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, bcf26 said:

@CJohn

Have you seen the movie?

Did you watch at the 12am midnight screeing or 2am screening?

It opened here (Portugal) today. I watched it in a 3:40 PM show.

[Barnack]

12 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

Box Office Mojo has given its projection for opening weekend: $38M. If BoxOffice.com's predicted 2.89x multiplier holds, that would leave it with a total domestic gross of $110M. If so, then in order to get around a 10% return, Lionsgate would need to have gotten a combined $104M or so between selling the rights to foreign distributors and whatever its share from UK ticket sales is. Of course, there's no way to know how much they got for the sales, but to put it in perspective, that's roughly what they would have gotten from a $314M foreign gross if they had been able to distribute it themselves. The question, then, is whether the foreign distributors saw at least that level of potential in the film.

 

I'm a bit curious about how those calculation are made, if they would achieved to sales the foreign market to around 100 million, that would make it a bit the equivalent of a free movie that you would release only on the domestic market with the presales covering 100% of the production cost. Would a free to do movie really need to reach 110 million on the domestic box office to achieve a 10% ROI ?

 

It is a Liongates budget release after all, they are spending about the same money Sony is spending on Life (a 58 million movie) on the domestic release tv ads, not a big Warner Brother release:

http://variety.com/2017/more/news/power-rangers-again-tops-studios-tv-ad-spending-1202012184/

 

As for a $104M pre-sales, being the equivalent of distributing yourself a movie making 314 million at the foreign box office, what is the rules of thumbs used ?

 

I don't think that box office amount would generate a 100 million theartical rental margin, Imagine a 55 million Intl release cost, and a generous 40% average box office share (not China heavy), 314*.4-55 = 70.6 million. And if it include international home video and TV, 100 million sound really  low.

 

It look like you are saying that a 100 million movie , need to do a 424 million WW performance to only do a 10% ROI, 424 million would be a massive hit, 4.24 is budget at the box office, probably more around 17-19+% ROI or non-Disney studios will have a really hard 2017.

[johnboy3434]

31 minutes ago, Barnack said:

snip

 

I'm assuming a $50M P&A budget. I'm also assuming that LG gets 55% of domestic gross and would have gotten about one-third of the foreign gross had it distributed the film itself. So the total negative cost is $150M, so to make a 10% return the studio needs to receive $165M. If it makes $110M domestic, that means LG received $60.5M from domestic ticket sales. So that leaves $104.5M that need to be made up elsewhere. Multiply by three, and that would be the equivalent of LG's share from a $313.5M foreign gross if LG had been able to release the film itself. So yeah, assuming a $110M domestic gross, the film would have to make $423.5M in order to make a 10% return if LG had done all the distributing itself.

 

Of course, the total number changes depending on the ratio of domestic to foreign. If the film had an average 40.7/59.3 split between domestic and foreign, then the worldwide gross would only need to be $391M in order to make a 10% return.

Edited March 24, 2017 by johnboy3434

[Barnack]

15 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

I'm assuming ... need to be $391M in order to make a 10% return.

 

I think I got what I have having some issue with your numbers, it is not so bad because it is 2 issue that counterbalance themselve a little bit.

 

I think that (if I understand them correctly)

 

1) You seem to be underestimating total negative cost, a movie budget is usually less than half of them, the average is around 35%, but it get bigger when the budget get bigger, you can look at a couple of deadline estimate for example.

 

http://deadline.com/2016/03/cinderella-movie-profit-2015-box-office-disney-1201724740/

Cinderella

Budget: 95 million

Total cost: 313 million

Total cost without participation bonus: 299 million

 

http://deadline.com/2017/03/the-conjuring-2-box-office-profit-2016-1202049196/

Conjuring 2

Budget: 40

Total negative cost: 183 million

Total negative cost without participation bonus: 177 million (deadline is always underestimating participation bonus imo)

 

http://deadline.com/2017/03/central-intelligence-box-office-profit-2016-1202046803/

Central intelligence

Budget: 50 million

Total negative cost: 184 million

Total negative cost without participations bonus: 171 million

 

http://deadline.com/2017/03/la-la-land-box-office-profit-2016-1202047487/

La la land

Budget: 30 million

Total negative cost: 143.75 million

Total negative cost without participations bonus: 108 million

 

 

2) You seem to have forgot the biggest source of annual revenue for Liongates, money from home entertaintement and TV, that would explain with you need such a big box office performance to reach a 10% ROI.

[johnboy3434]

16 minutes ago, Barnack said:

2) You seem to have forgot the biggest source of annual revenue for Liongates, money from home entertaintement and TV, that would explain with you need such a big box office performance to reach a 10% ROI.

 

Yeah, I should have specified: My numbers are assuming that LG's ideal goal is to make a satisfactory return on the film project before it leaves theaters. While that attitude has become far less prominent in the years since VHS exploded, it would still be an ideal outcome because then everything they make from home entertainment and television is gravy. I imagine that the film showing signs of making a profit in theaters would also translate into an instant greenlight for a sequel.

 

It's worth noting, for example, that of Marvel's "Phase One" films, only Iron Man and The Avengers are likely to have made a profit from box office receipts alone.

Edited March 24, 2017 by johnboy3434

[DeeCee]

Power Rangers is opening behind Life in Australia.  I'm not going to make a comparison because BatB is opening the same weekend here.  All I'll say is that this suggests suggests sub USD30m

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Power Rangers is opening behind Life in Australia.  I'm not going to make a comparison because BatB is opening the same weekend here.  All I'll say is that this suggests suggests sub USD30m

What about Boss Baby?

[Nova]

6 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Power Rangers is opening behind Life in Australia.  I'm not going to make a comparison because BatB is opening the same weekend here.  All I'll say is that this suggests suggests sub USD30m

Hehehe where is Gokira to see this. 

 

Yo @Alliremember Gokira trolling us about Life? 

 

PS Power Rangers is killing it on Pulse tonight though. I think BATB opening the same weekend is why it was in third in Austrailia. I would still say $30M+ is in play here in the states....but who knows. 

Edited March 24, 2017 by Nova

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

Hehehe where is Gokira to see this. 

 

Yo @Alliremember Gokira trolling us about Life? 

 

PS Power Rangers is killing it on Pulse tonight though. I think BATB opening the same weekend is why it was in third in Austrailia. I would still say $30M+ is in play here in the states....but who knows. 

PR will do a Allegiant OW ($29M) at worst.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

PR will do a Allegiant OW ($29M) at worst.

I agree. I doubted it last week but I've been watching Pulse on and off tonight and it's selling really well on there. Of course that doesn't guarantee anything but I think $30M is the floor at this point. 

[Barnack]

37 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

Yeah, I should have specified: My numbers are assuming that LG's ideal goal is to make a satisfactory return on the film project before it leaves theaters. While that attitude has become far less prominent in the years since VHS exploded, it would still be an ideal outcome because then everything they make from home entertainment and television is gravy. I imagine that the film showing signs of making a profit in theaters would also translate into an instant greenlight for a sequel.

 

It's worth noting, for example, that of Marvel's "Phase One" films, only Iron Man and The Avengers are likely to have made a profit from box office receipts alone.

 

Movies almost never achieve to make a profit from theater alone (guardian of the galaxy probably didn't achieve that for an example of how rare it is), like you are saying most of the MCU even don't do that. And it would mean a giant ROI if they do, much more than 10%.

 

If you look at Liongates last year annual report, I would not agree that anything they do from home entertainment and television is gravy, it is fully taken into account into a movie greenlight on how much they are expecting to do on those and almost all movie greenlighted would make a huge loss without them by design, it is the main revenue source of the studio by far :

https://www.lionsgate.com/uploads/assets/2016 Annual Report.pdf

 

Within the Motion Pictures segment, revenues were generated from the following in 2016:

Theatrical 18.7%

Home Entertainment 34.6%

Television 12.2%

International 32.7%

and Motion Pictures-Other 1.8%.

 

Obviously that is a exageration of how low theatrical is for them because it inclue all Liongates library of movie, but what is fun with liongates is that they separate there annual revenue by year slate and in recent year's more than 50% of a movie revenue was from the market after a release, not theater.

 

I'm not sure why people think studio seen theatrical revenue differently then the rest or that they care about some break even in theater line, on all the sony leak material I never seen that mentionned.

 

They calculate a lot of scenario, what the movie would need to break even, to get a good return, etc... never seen a estimation of how much it would need to do to break even from theater.

 

 

Edited March 24, 2017 by Barnack

[alisson23]

It is being a disaster overseas.

[Gokira2012]

33 minutes ago, Nova said:

Hehehe where is Gokira to see this. 

 

Yo @Alliremember Gokira trolling us about Life? 

 

PS Power Rangers is killing it on Pulse tonight though. I think BATB opening the same weekend is why it was in third in Austrailia. I would still say $30M+ is in play here in the states....but who knows. 

Believe it or not power rangers is rising because of women so no shocker batb opening has the girls

Edited March 24, 2017 by Gokira2012

[Nova]

Just now, alisson23 said:

It is being a disaster overseas.

I know I keep saying this but it's selling really well right now on MT and Pulse. I don't know what that's gonna translate to but I do think it's gonna open up just fine in the states. 

 

Do you have numbers you can share for over seas though? 

[Gokira2012]

1 minute ago, alisson23 said:

It is being a disaster overseas.

No batb opening is hurting PR in Australia 

 

 

[Nova]

Just now, Gokira2012 said:

Believe it or not power rangers is rising because of women so no shocker bath opening has the girls

[alisson23]

15 minutes ago, Nova said:

I know I keep saying this but it's selling really well right now on MT and Pulse. I don't know what that's gonna translate to but I do think it's gonna open up just fine in the states. 

 

Do you have numbers you can share for over seas though? 

Many of Lions movies do less OS than EUA. I still believe in 40M+ But OS numbers aren't good. Only in New Zeland it was on #1 on OD. I really HOPE it has a big jump next days.

 

Germany THURSDAY

"Rammstein: Paris: 61k (a German band's concert recording, only today I think)
Life: 14k (starts in 470 theaters, good reviews)
Power Rangers 11.5k (427, mediocre reviews)"

 

Australia THURSDAY
1 - BatB $2.04M
2 - Life $250k
3 - PR $228k
4 - BB $186K

 

 

Edited March 24, 2017 by alisson23

[Blaze Heatnix]

18 minutes ago, alisson23 said:

It is being a disaster overseas.

 

 

Way too early to tell, for sure.

 

It's not easy when there are monsters like BATB, Logan and Kong still playing most of the markets overseas. At least the budget isn't insanely high.

 

So, we'll have to wait for the long haul.