The Disney Thread | Happy 90th to Donald Duck!

[Potiki]

2 hours ago, von Kenni said:

 

And we're talking about revenue without subtracting the cost side yet and it can be brutal. My insights to that are about 7 years old but just the HD and 4K data streaming costs are huge and thats not all. So you can start to take dollars out of monthly  ARPU right away.

Not that much any more a very small cost even for small businesses and I assume Disney gets a hefty discount being such a big player. I think now that Azure is a massive player and Google as well as Aliyun still involved AWS prices have come down pretty dramatically, that and tech infrastructure has improved which would have cut costs 

2 hours ago, von Kenni said:

Those right fees need to be now covered by those small profits of subs when the costs are taken out. And that's why Disney+ is making big losses and that's why e.g. broadcasting right fees from Disney+ of $180m or some other crazy number might make movie like TLM breakeven in film division side while increasing streaming losses and by that way ultimately whole Disney losses.

 

It's not that complicated math but we just don't know all the exact numbers. Though if I took Disney's public financial statements and took a day I could probably answer many of these questions with accuracy but I would think that someone has done that already.

Disney+ film rights payments may very well have come down now they have returned to longer windows, which would make sense as it could be easily argued the films as worth less due to the longer time it takes to come to streaming and the additional VOD release pre-streaming. I don't have any confirmation if that is the case though, I believe Disney was paying around $200-250m per title post theatrical for Disney/Pixar/Marvel titles in 2020 through at least last year which is a notable bump from the $150m or so they got from Netflix (and other global licensed entities) in the 2016-2018 period. 

 

All that said if you just look at total quarterly revenue $5.514B minus programming and production costs of $4.145B Disney streaming would be very profitable. The issue is additional costs, a big one is Marketing which now that Disney have launched in all major markets and are less aggressively chasing new subscribers can come down and that does seem to be the case as selling, general, admin and other costs have come down from $1.7B to $1B in the last 6 months and could possibly drop even lower. 

 

Disney will absolutely turn streaming profitable, I would guess likely in their original timeline of 2024, as they are heavily cutting costs (some of which like removing shows and movies I feel is too aggressive but alas) to hit profit. However to do so I feel they are removing some upside they would have had, had they continued to be aggressive with local programming to challenge Netflix they could have possibly been the top player worldwide, Disney though seems to be comfortable being in the 2 or 3 spot globally when it comes to streaming. 

[von Kenni]

8 hours ago, Potiki said:

Not that much any more a very small cost even for small businesses and I assume Disney gets a hefty discount being such a big player. I think now that Azure is a massive player and Google as well as Aliyun still involved AWS prices have come down pretty dramatically, that and tech infrastructure has improved which would have cut costs 

Disney+ film rights payments may very well have come down now they have returned to longer windows, which would make sense as it could be easily argued the films as worth less due to the longer time it takes to come to streaming and the additional VOD release pre-streaming. I don't have any confirmation if that is the case though, I believe Disney was paying around $200-250m per title post theatrical for Disney/Pixar/Marvel titles in 2020 through at least last year which is a notable bump from the $150m or so they got from Netflix (and other global licensed entities) in the 2016-2018 period. 

 

All that said if you just look at total quarterly revenue $5.514B minus programming and production costs of $4.145B Disney streaming would be very profitable. The issue is additional costs, a big one is Marketing which now that Disney have launched in all major markets and are less aggressively chasing new subscribers can come down and that does seem to be the case as selling, general, admin and other costs have come down from $1.7B to $1B in the last 6 months and could possibly drop even lower. 

 

Disney will absolutely turn streaming profitable, I would guess likely in their original timeline of 2024, as they are heavily cutting costs (some of which like removing shows and movies I feel is too aggressive but alas) to hit profit. However to do so I feel they are removing some upside they would have had, had they continued to be aggressive with local programming to challenge Netflix they could have possibly been the top player worldwide, Disney though seems to be comfortable being in the 2 or 3 spot globally when it comes to streaming. 

 

Thanks for sharing all this. It's interesting that the data costs have come so much down given that the data amount has for sure gone up but then again 5x, 10x development in 7 years time arent suprising. But yeah, big players also get big discounts. I remeber that too.

 

And the marketing costs seem to be in the ballpark. In digital subscriptions you usually need (or needed back in the day) to allocate that 20-25% of revenues constantly to marketing and sales to get new subs. A key thing to know is that there's also a retention for subs. They won't be subs forever but in a year x % drops out. And things like campaign discounts matter. When they end, how many drops out. There isn't probably any public source for that?

[Potiki]

7 hours ago, von Kenni said:

A key thing to know is that there's also a retention for subs. They won't be subs forever but in a year x % drops out. And things like campaign discounts matter. When they end, how many drops out. There isn't probably any public source for that?

Nothing from Disney themselves but US data from Antenna Data is fairly reliable. Disney+ is generally the 2nd best churn in the business (~3-5% per month) after Netflix (2-4%) although that is only for monthly subscribers, Yearly and Bundle (Hulu+Disney+ or Hulu, ESPN+ and Disney+) are obviously lower. 

 

This is outdated (although they haven't publicly released churn data recently that I can recall) and Netflix would have spiked again recently with the password sharing crackdown although new signups offset that. 

 

Edit: new data from seemingly a month ago (Churn rates)

 

Disney Bundle: 2%

Disney+: 4%

Hulu: 5%

ESPN+: 7%

Netflix: 3.3%

 

They also say half of subs in the US are Bundle subs. So Disney+ monthly churn could be weighted at 3% without accounting for yearly subscribers which would also improve that figure. So slightly better than Netflix in current times although I could see Netflix churn improving again once the password sharing surge contracts. 

 

Source: https://www.indiewire.com/news/analysis/disney-bundle-cost-churn-rate-netflix-1234876494/

Edited July 21, 2023 by Potiki

[von Kenni]

6 minutes ago, Potiki said:

Nothing from Disney themselves but US data from Antenna Data is fairly reliable. Disney+ is generally the 2nd best churn in the business (~3-5% per month) after Netflix (2-4%) although that is only for monthly subscribers, Yearly and Bundle (Hulu+Disney+ or Hulu, ESPN+ and Disney+) are obviously lower. 

 

This is outdated (although they haven't publicly released churn data recently that I can recall) and Netflix would have spiked again recently with the password sharing crackdown although new signups offset that. 

 

Super interesting data, thanks!

 

So basically with 3% monthly churn we end up around 70% annual retention rate. Not bad, but tells you how you need to get new subs or old-ones reactivated.

[Potiki]

1 minute ago, von Kenni said:

 

Super interesting data, thanks!

 

So basically with 3% monthly churn we end up around 70% annual retention rate. Not bad, but tells you how you need to get new subs or old-ones reactivated.

Probably a lot of the latter as people churn off and come back when a show they want to watch is on, or as people rotate between the various streamers, with Hulu and Disney+ integrated that may help boost bundle subs come the end of the year as well. 

 

Internationally will be tricky with, possibly less by all indications, foreign programming to acquire new subs as a lot of beloved content in Europe, Asia and Latam is local/regional, but at least they already have the equivalent of the Hulu integration internationally in Europe and Asia with the Star brand, which has broadened the service in terms of US and some international programming. 

[von Kenni]

4 minutes ago, Potiki said:

Probably a lot of the latter as people churn off and come back when a show they want to watch is on, or as people rotate between the various streamers, with Hulu and Disney+ integrated that may help boost bundle subs come the end of the year as well. 

 

Internationally will be tricky with, possibly less by all indications, foreign programming to acquire new subs as a lot of beloved content in Europe, Asia and Latam is local/regional, but at least they already have the equivalent of the Hulu integration internationally in Europe and Asia with the Star brand, which has broadened the service in terms of US and some international programming. 

 

I can add another interesting sub case. I bought in Europe a lifetime -50% subscription for HBOMax about 2 years ago. I could use those logging info when in the States and of course the offering changed but the predicament where I'm now is that the US has it as Max and Europe (at least my home country) has it still as HBOMax and now my logging info doesn't work in the States with Max. I haven't inquired it yet from them (read: not so active HBOMax user...last one was Spy/Master and when there's some new series it gets more timely) but it'll be interesting to see what happens with it. If they restrict users to their specific regions. I've also wondered how long "lifetime" in reality is...

[Water Bottle]

1 minute ago, von Kenni said:

 

I can add another interesting sub case. I bought in Europe a lifetime -50% subscription for HBOMax about 2 years ago. I could use those logging info when in the States and of course the offering changed but the predicament where I'm now is that the US has it as Max and Europe (at least my home country) has it still as HBOMax and now my logging info doesn't work in the States with Max. I haven't inquired it yet from them (read: not so active HBOMax user...last one was Spy/Master and when there's some new series it gets more timely) but it'll be interesting to see what happens with it. If they restrict users to their specific regions. I've also wondered how long "lifetime" in reality is...

 

It's incredibly dumb that they went from calling it HBO Max to just Max. HBO Max uses the HBO brand which is pretty strong. Max is a meaningless name. 

[von Kenni]

2 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

It's incredibly dumb that they went from calling it HBO Max to just Max. HBO Max uses the HBO brand which is pretty strong. Max is a meaningless name. 

Agree. HBO definitely still has that subtext of quality. Does anyone know why they did this? Did something force them to do this?

[Avatree]

18 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Agree. HBO definitely still has that subtext of quality. Does anyone know why they did this? Did something force them to do this?

presumably to expand the appeal to outside of HBO shows. like how most people who don't have disney+ probably are unaware that there are non-disney shows on disney+. Naming your streaming service HBO Max gives the impression that it only has HBO content on there.

[von Kenni]

15 minutes ago, Avatree said:

presumably to expand the appeal to outside of HBO shows. like how most people who don't have disney+ probably are unaware that there are non-disney shows on disney+. Naming your streaming service HBO Max gives the impression that it only has HBO content on there.

Makes sense as a long term strategy. Brand extensions generally fail long-term and dilute existing brand (branding 101). Even though creating and launching a new brand is always tough this kind of "handover" might work where HBO brand lured in a certain base. We'll see.

[ZattMurdock]

 

[misterpepp]

Disney Considers Delaying Some 2023 Movie Releases Over Strikes

Quote

The discussions are at an early stage, but could impact films including Poor Things, Next Goal Wins, Wish and Magazine Dreams, which are all slated for release this year.

 

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Disney Considers Delaying Some 2023 Movie Releases Over Strikes

 

lol at Wish being mentioned amid all Searchlight titles otherwise. That's likely staying on Thanksgiving weekend since it doesn't need a press tour (being an animated movie and all) + holiday box office but the others moving would be plausible if Next Goal Wins wasn't bowing at TIFF and Poor Things being highly rumored to be premiering at Venice.

[Water Bottle]

On 7/22/2023 at 3:18 PM, ZattMurdock said:

 

 

how long is that going to be on disney+? Over/under 8 weeks?

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, datpepper said:

Disney Considers Delaying Some 2023 Movie Releases Over Strikes

 

Every studio is having these discussions.

[dudalb]

Still wondering when Disney will do something with the Buffyverse...which they got the rights to when they bought Fox Studios.

No, Warners does not own the Buffyverse. There rights to broadcast it expired a long time ago.

[ZattMurdock]

 

[Morieris]

19 hours ago, datpepper said:

Disney Considers Delaying Some 2023 Movie Releases Over Strikes

 

 

So much for your 100th celebration if they push back Wish. They won't.

[Boxx93]

On 7/21/2023 at 7:29 PM, Water Bottle said:

 

It's incredibly dumb that they went from calling it HBO Max to just Max. HBO Max uses the HBO brand which is pretty strong. Max is a meaningless name. 

I remember back in the early 2010s when Cinemax in Latinamerica was rebranded as just Max for the premium package channels while Cinemax became a basic cable channel. At least the bumpers during the commercials for Max in LA where really creative and out of the box instead of just having Max and a blue background. They should've kept the purple color at least because it stands out among all of the streaming service that use only blue for some reason.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, ZattMurdock said:

 

Edited July 25, 2023 by filmlover