2015: Top 10 Opening Weekend Predicitons

[Neo]

Star Wars Episode 7 - 217M WOWZA.

Avengers: Age of Ultron - 204M

Mockinjay Part II - 189M

Jurassic World - 114M Pretty Big.

Fast Seven - 102M

The Peanuts Movie - 92M Why so big?

Bond 24 - 89M

Minions - 82M

Inside Out - 76M

Tomorrowland - 72M (92M four-day) For a 20M Monday would need a 100M 3-day. For a 72M OW should be at 13M-15M for an 85M-87M 4-day.

 

Wild cards are The Jungle Book (probably #11), The Martian (Gravity 2.0?), The Good Dinosaur, Ted 2, 50 Shades of Grey, and Ant-Man

No Ant-Man (see in top 15), Mi5 or Minions. Will take bet on these whether over/under 72M.

[Ray G]

No Ant-Man (see in top 15), Mi5 or Minions. Will take bet on these whether over/under 72M.

 

Minions is in there at 82M.

MI5 I see getting trampled by Star Wars.

Ant-Man. I think the buzz is fairly mixed and it opens to Thor numbers. First Marvel Studios disappointment, although hardly a bomb.

[Neo]

Minions is in there at 82M.

MI5 I see getting trampled by Star Wars.

Ant-Man. I think the buzz is fairly mixed and it opens to Thor numbers. First Marvel Studios disappointment, although hardly a bomb.

So you think Thor was a disappointment?

[Heat Vision]

What numbers you guys think Spongebob will get?

[Cmasterclay]

1. Avengers 2- 225

2. Mockingjay 2- 175

3. Star Wars- 175

4. Fast Seven- 105

5. Bond- 92

6. Minions- 85

7. Ted 2- 80 (DRAMATICALLY underpredicted in both topics)

8. Jurassic World- 80

9. Good Dino- 74

10. MI5/Ant- 72

[Durden]

1. Avengers 2 - 233m

2. Mockingjay 2 - 175m

3. Star Wars VII - 158m

4. Fast & Furious 7 - 104m

5. Bond 24 - 90m

6. Minions - 88m

7. Jurassic Park - 85m

8. Ant-Man - 83m

9. Good Dinosaur/ Inside Out - 82m

10. Mission Impossible V - 81m

[mahnamahna]

[*]Avengers 2 - $235 million (This one is going to be significantly more frontloaded than the last - expecting a 2x-2.5x multi as opposed to the last one's 3x. But it'll still be humongous) 

[*]Mockingjay Part 2 - $185 million (The finale factor could get this to $185 million if the first one doesn't completely crash from CF and HG's OWs) 

[*]Fast and Furious 7 - $115 million (this is going to insanely hyped up and have a huge OW - but not really any legs afterwards) 

[*]Star Wars Episode VII - $110 million (Christmas season is going to prevent this from being opening past $125 million+ - but the legs will be phenomenal. 5x-6x is pretty likely) 

[*]Jurassic World - $105 million (think this'll be the breakout hit of summer 2015) 

[*]Bond 24 - $100 million (slight increase from Skyfall) 

[*]Minions - $95 million (DM2 got $125 million over its first 5 days - $90-100 million over Minions' 4 day seems reasonable in a month void of kids movies) 

[*]50 Shades of Grey - $90 million/$100 million (Valentine's madness - if anything will top Passion of the Christ's OW this decade, it's this) 

[*]Ant-Man - $80 million (after GotG, I won't doubt Marvel. But the lack of a teamup might cause it to open smaller than GotG) 

[*]Inside Out - $75 million (if it's a return to form for Pixar, I could see it doing very well) 

Tomorrowland, Ted 2, Fantastic Four, Terminator Genysis and The Good Dinosaur are all wildcards for top 10 OW but they all have enough against them that I wouldn't rank them there at this moment.

 

Tomorrowland is a $200 million+ original tentpole (hoping Brad Bird hits it out of the park but you never know). Mad Max 4 and Pixels shouldn't break out so Tomorrowland could pull off a $75-80 million 4 day if it's marketed well. 

 

Ted 2 is coming off of Million Ways but it has the best chance of any that I listed since its R rated comedy market is clearly for its first month (expecting $65-70 million OW now) 

 

Fantastic Four has to overcome the mediocrity of the last two films and set up a believable universe. Jurassic World will eat up some of those who would go see this. Fox really should have kept this in March - would have made a killing since Cinderella and Insurgent are more girl-centric while Chappie and Get Hard are probably R-rated comedies. Expecting $50-55 million right now, but $40-45 million wouldn't surprise me considering how bad Fox's marketing team is. 

 

Terminator Genysis has the advantage of having space between it and the last two tentpoles before (Fantastic Four two weeks earlier, Ant-Man/Pan two weeks after) - but Ahnuld and the Terminator brand aren't exactly reliable these days. Unless this installment gives fans a reason to go see it, anything more than $60 million OW would surprise me. 

 

The Good Dinosaur also has a good chance at top 10 OW but it depends on how well Inside Out and Jungle Book do. Plus, the postponing from May 2014 to November 2015 isn't exactly a great sign considering they were just fine with releasing Cars 2, Brave and Monsters University - none of which were particularly spectacular. I'm expecting $55-60 million OW since it's Thanksgiving but a $70 million+ OW wouldn't be a shocker. 

[Neo]

 

[*]Avengers 2 - $235 million (This one is going to be significantly more frontloaded than the last - expecting a 2x-2.5x multi as opposed to the last one's 3x. But it'll still be humongous) 

 

Bet on it making more than a 2X?

[Ethan Hunt]

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - 215 million2. Star Wars: Episode 7 - 180 million3. Hunger Games: Mockingjay part 2 - 160 million4. Bond 24 - 109 million5. Jurassic World - 105 million6. Fast 7 - 95 million7. Ant-Man - 85 million8. The Fantastic Four - 70 million9. The Good Dinosaur - 65 million (  Cookie for first one to get it )10. Mission Impossible 5 - 64 million

I'm willing to bet M:I 5 has a higher OW than Ant-Man

[The Panda]

1.The Avengers: Age of Ultron - 215m2.The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 - 170m3.Star Wars: Episode VII - 150m4.Fast and Furious 7 - 145m5.Fifty Shades of Grey - 125m6.Minions - 115m7.James Bond 24 - 105m8.Jurassic World - 90m9.Ant-Man - 85m10.Inside Out - 75m

Edited August 11, 2014 by The Panda

[The Panda]

I'm willing to bet M:I 5 has a higher OW than Ant-Man

Lol that's an easy bet, MI: 5 is set to underperform in its current spot.

[Ethan Hunt]

Lol that's an easy bet, MI: 5 is set to underperform in its current spot.

You want to take it?

[mahnamahna]

Bet on it making more than a 2X?

I did say 2x-2.5x. 2.5x would get it $585-590 million with the weekend I listed. 2.7x would take it to $600-610 million. Both pretty reasonable unless Avengers 2 manages to surpass Avengers 1 in quality. In which case I'm going with $250 million OW and $700 million DOM - after 2014's lack of blockbusters, I'm thinking the box office will rebound big time in terms of $250 million+ DOM grossers next year and the year after. 

[The Panda]

You want to take it?

Easily, i'd bet Ant-Man opens at least two times as high as MI: 5. 1.MI: 5 is coming out a week after Star Wars 7, it's going to get cremated.2.It's opening in December, that will hinder larger openings. Only thing going for it is Friday is Christmas Day so the weekend will be slightly inflated.3.Guardians opened to 94.3m, Ant-Man is coming out right after Age of Ultron in mid July. A big opening is guaranteed.

[Neo]

I did say 2x-2.5x. 2.5x would get it $585-590 million with the weekend I listed. 2.7x would take it to $600-610 million. Both pretty reasonable unless Avengers 2 manages to surpass Avengers 1 in quality. In which case I'm going with $250 million OW and $700 million DOM - after 2014's lack of blockbusters, I'm thinking the box office will rebound big time in terms of $250 million+ DOM grossers next year and the year after. 

But you said 2X as well.

[Ethan Hunt]

Easily, i'd bet Ant-Man opens at least two times as high as MI: 5. 1.MI: 5 is coming out a week after Star Wars 7, it's going to get cremated.2.It's opening in December, that will hinder larger openings. Only thing going for it is Friday is Christmas Day so the weekend will be slightly inflated.3.Guardians opened to 94.3m, Ant-Man is coming out right after Age of Ultron in mid July. A big opening is guaranteed.

OK, what are our stakes gonna be?

[mahnamahna]

You want to take it?

Mission Impossible 5 isn't getting a $60-70 million OW after Star Wars Episode VII. The 4th got a $29 million wide release OW during the Christmas date. I'd say $35-40 million OW and $160-175 million DOM total makes sense at this point. MI4 was also helped by being the best film of Christmas 2011 in terms of entertainment value. 

 

I know Avatar and Sherlock Holmes coexisted, but Sherlock had RDJ hot off of Iron Man 1/Tropic Thunder and a stellar marketing campaign. MI4 has Star Wars VII and Inferno to compete with currently. Plus Bond 24 and Mockingjay 2 are set to be huge hits the month before. 

 

Ant-Man has the Marvel/Avengers goodwill, a relatively empty late July/early August playing field (Pan looks like a flop to me, Peregine's moved and Assassin's Creed has to conquer the video game adaption curse), and GotG's breakout going for it. The summer is also signficantly more frontloaded than Christmas. I could see MI4 topping Ant-Man in its total DOM run, but over OW, Ant-Man's mid July date gives it a significant advantage over a Christmas one. 

[Ray G]

So you think Thor was a disappointment?

If it had opened in the post-Avengers era rather than as one of the first expansions of the MCU, it would have been.

 

If GOTG can do 94M, a 65M debut for Ant-Man will not thrill anyone. Still, the budget may be lower, so they'll probably still make some money off it. I just think this will likely be the lowest-grossing MCU film besides Incredible Hulk.

[DAJK]

unless the reviews are in the can, I can't fathom an MCU film, including Ant-Man doing less than 200DOM

[crazydom]

unless the reviews are in the can, I can't fathom an MCU film, including Ant-Man doing less than 200DOM

Thor 2 didn't exactly blow past 200m. It's not hard to fathom an unknown Marvel property failing to reach it. 

 

Ant-Man has a lot less going for it than Guardians.