DAJK Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Thor 2 didn't exactly blow past 200m. It's not hard to fathom an unknown Marvel property failing to reach it. Ant-Man has a lot less going for it than Guardians. I thought Thor 2 was pretty mediocre, if not under-par... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Thor 2 didn't exactly blow past 200m. It's not hard to fathom an unknown Marvel property failing to reach it. Ant-Man has a lot less going for it than Guardians.Welcome to the forum. I agree with your statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted August 12, 2014 Author Share Posted August 12, 2014 Mission Impossible 5 isn't getting a $60-70 million OW after Star Wars Episode VII. The 4th got a $29 million wide release OW during the Christmas date. I'd say $35-40 million OW and $160-175 million DOM total makes sense at this point. MI4 was also helped by being the best film of Christmas 2011 in terms of entertainment value. I know Avatar and Sherlock Holmes coexisted, but Sherlock had RDJ hot off of Iron Man 1/Tropic Thunder and a stellar marketing campaign. MI4 has Star Wars VII and Inferno to compete with currently. Plus Bond 24 and Mockingjay 2 are set to be huge hits the month before. Ant-Man has the Marvel/Avengers goodwill, a relatively empty late July/early August playing field (Pan looks like a flop to me, Peregine's moved and Assassin's Creed has to conquer the video game adaption curse), and GotG's breakout going for it. The summer is also signficantly more frontloaded than Christmas. I could see MI4 topping Ant-Man in its total DOM run, but over OW, Ant-Man's mid July date gives it a significant advantage over a Christmas one. You know why it did only 29M? 2nd wknd and under 3500 theaters also coming off Mi3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy001 Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 (edited) 1. The avengers 2 -$2202. Mockingjay p.2- $1803. Star war 7- $1604. Fast 7-$1155. Bond 24- $1026. jurassic world - $967. Minion- $908. Misson 5- $889. Ted 2- $8610. Tomorrowland or ant man - $82-85 Edited August 12, 2014 by Andy001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 You know why it did only 29M? 2nd wknd and under 3500 theaters also coming off Mi3.Sherlock Holmes 2=$39 millionStar Wars Episode VII + Inferno=$150 million And $15 million extra from the week before would have given it $44 million OW. $40-45 million is a lot around Christmas time MI5 has more competition so I wouldn't expect it to top MI4. $175 million is still respectable and OS will be through the roof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Thor 2 didn't exactly blow past 200m. It's not hard to fathom an unknown Marvel property failing to reach it. Ant-Man has a lot less going for it than Guardians. Agreed. However, Ant-Man will be the Marvel movie coming fresh off of Avengers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orestes Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 (edited) Agreed. However, Ant-Man will be the Marvel movie coming fresh off of Avengers 2 True, but he's not in the Avengers 2, unless he's in a stinger. Edited August 12, 2014 by Orestes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ent Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 (edited) I have my doubt. Despicable Me is huge. The other two are new projects but you can't underestimate their marketing.Ant-Man doesn't have as much appeal as GOTG to pull almost equal numbers. People said the same thing about GOTG, one year ago. Wait when the Disney machine starts marketting ANTMAN, who, shall i remind some, will be the very first movie released after AOU, while AOU is still in theaters and will hint it...Hell, double feature is a real possibility It will definitely ride on its mega success and will have a big opening. Edited August 12, 2014 by Ent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ent Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 (edited) True, but he's not in the Avengers 2, unless he's in a stinger. True but because of the continuity, AOU may hint it in some extent. Plus AOU will still be in theaters, so it will be the very first time that another MCU movie is released while an Avengers one is still playing. We don't know how much it could impact the next MCU movie released but it will for sure increase its potential. And another thing it has for it, it will come after a string of 3 Marvel successes, back to back granted AOU tops TA, which will reinforce even more the Marvel's brand in terms of quality and increase the faith in ANTMAN, much more than people had previously faith in GOTG. Edited August 12, 2014 by Ent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommycruise Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Funny how Universal which has never had a 100m OW may have up to 3 next year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessie Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Yeah slightly but only 110 OW for a SW film with all of the OT cast? That seems incredibly low. Yeah people don't seem to realise that I Am Legend adjusted for inflation and 3d would have cleared 100m OW. This is Star Wars, its opening huge regardless of what time of year it's released and it will prove to everyone on here that December films can open big. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessie Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 (edited) This is also the first Star Wars movie to open at Christmas time, when people are generally occupied with holiday shopping and whatnot until the 25th. It's impossible for any movie to have a $150M+ opening (at least over a normal 3-day weekend) during that month. Star Wars could open to $100M and still end up with over $600M. How could you say it's impossible? No film has tested the limits to see how high a film can open. Original films like Avatar and IAL managed to break records in that month and they wont have anywhere near the hype Star Wars will have. The idea that films cant open big in December is a myth, just like you can only have big blockbuster numbers if you release a film in the summer lol. Release Star Wars at any time of year and its having a huge OW Edited August 12, 2014 by jessie 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulder Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 1. Avengers: Age of Ultron-235 million 2. Star Wars 7-202 million 3. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2-170 million 4. Bond 24-125 Million 5. Fast 7-106 Million 6. Jurassic World-102 Million 7. Ant-Man-97 Million ((Legs are going to be TERRIBLE for this)) 8. Inside Out-89 Million 9. Minions-84 Million 10. 50 Shades of Grey-81 Million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 How could you say it's impossible? No film has tested the limits to see how high a film can open. Original films like Avatar and IAL managed to break records in that month and they wont have anywhere near the hype Star Wars will have. The idea that films cant open big in December is a myth, just like you can only have big blockbuster numbers if you release a film in the summer lol. Release Star Wars at any time of year and its having a huge OW Agreed. Look at ROTK 11 years ago. Its 5 first days adjusts to 167 million without 3D. Its OW would be 98 million even although it was released on Wednesday. And Star Wars will always be more anticipated than any other movie in US. I have the feeling that some people here are too young to be conscious how big SW is. They only know Marvel era and maybe they consider previous movie events just too old. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 People said the same thing about GOTG, one year ago. Wait when the Disney machine starts marketting ANTMAN, who, shall i remind some, will be the very first movie released after AOU, while AOU is still in theaters and will hint it...Hell, double feature is a real possibility It will definitely ride on its mega success and will have a big opening. People won't care that it's the first one after TA2, why would that affect anything. Also, I always thought GOTG had potential where has I'm not convienced at all that Ant-Man has a remote chance of crossing 200M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted August 12, 2014 Author Share Posted August 12, 2014 Sherlock Holmes 2=$39 millionStar Wars Episode VII + Inferno=$150 millionAnd $15 million extra from the week before would have given it $44 million OW. $40-45 million is a lot around Christmas timeMI5 has more competition so I wouldn't expect it to top MI4. $175 million is still respectable and OS will be through the roof Putting to much stock into Inferno (dying breed). 15M? Is that for Mi5? As shown you can have a 70M and a 60M+ on the same weekend. Look at the aggregate for Xmas 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordi Estrada Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 1. Avengers: Age of Ultron - 245 2. Mocking Jay Part II - 175 3. Star Wars Episode VII - 170 4. Bond 24 - 120 5. Jurassic World - 115 6. Minions - 110 7. Fast 7 - 105 8. Inside Out - 90 9. Ant-Man - 85 10. The Good Dinosaur - 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 Putting to much stock into Inferno (dying breed). 15M? Is that for Mi5? As shown you can have a 70M and a 60M+ on the same weekend. Look at the aggregate for Xmas 2009. Again Star Wars Episode VII could do $150 million the weekend before. That's nearly double what Avatar did in its first two weekends. Inferno's gonna snag $10-15 million more. $165 million of competition the weekend before compared to $77 million for Sherlock Holmes. Star Wars Episode VII could get $80-95 million the weekend after. Inferno will probably hold steady. MI5 has Bond 24, Mockingjay 2 and Star Wars Episode VII eating up the blockbuster crowds. I can't see more than a $45 million OW with Star Wars likely to be a mega-blockbuster the week before. Even if MI5 gets a $60 million OW, it'll be 12th or 13th for 2015 OWs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K1stpierre Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 1. Avengers 2 -- 210M 2. MJ2 -- 170M 3. Star Wars -- 150M 4. Jurassic World -- 120M 5. Bond -- 95M 6. 50 Shades of Grey -- 90M 7. Fast 7 85M 8. Inside Out 75M 9. Tomorrow Land -- 65M 10. Minions -- 60M 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tupek Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 1. Avengers 2 -- 210M 2. MJ2 -- 170M 3. Star Wars -- 150M 4. Jurassic World -- 120M 5. Bond -- 95M 6. 50 Shades of Grey -- 90M 7. Fast 7 85M 8. Inside Out 75M 9. Tomorrow Land -- 65M 10. Minions -- 60M This is the most realistic list I've seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
