spizzer Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 We've seen a dramatic decline in ticket sales over the last two years. BOM does a poor job of estimating the yearly drops, because their ticket sale estimations do not properly take 3D into account. The actual declines in 2010 and 2011 are much worse than what it seems like. Couple that with growing ticket prices and we have a serious problem.To use a macroeconomic analogy, we're seeing stagflation. The price level continues to rise (ticket prices), while the output/Real GDP falls (ticket sales). Even Nominal GDP (overall gross) has been in decline. Hopefully, we see a rebound next year, but current conditions indicate otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 THR report ===== From Warner Bros., Game of Shadows grossed an estimated $15 million on its first day for a projected weekend opening is the $42 million to $45 million range, compared to a $62.3 million opening for Sherlock Holmes in 2009. PHOTOS: 'Mission: Impossible' Dubai Premiere Game of Shadows wasn't likely to reach the same levels as the first film, which opened on Christmas day and had the benefit of the year-end holidays being fully underway. The weekend before Christmas isn't necessarily known for big movie openings, since many moviegoers are preoccupied with holiday preparations. Still, most box office observers believed Game of Shadows would hit $50 million considering it's the sequel to a box office hit, although Warner gave a more conservative range of $40 million to $50 million. Chip-Wrecked grossed an estimated $7 million on Friday from 3,723 theaters--well less than the $13.3 million earned by the original Alvin and the Chipmunks on the same Friday in 2007. The 3D GGI/live-action hybrid is expected to gross $25 million to $28 million for the weekend, compared to $44.3 million for the first Alvin and $48.9 million for the sequel, which opened on Dec. 23 in 2009. But the news isn't all bad. Films can rack up huge grosses during the year-end holidays, and Game of Shadows and Chip-Wrecked could make up ground. Game of Shadows, directed by Guy Ritchie and returning Robert Downey Jr. and Jude Law in the title roles, received a promising A- CinemaScore, compared to a B for the first film, which grossed $209 million domestically and $315 million internationally. Of those buying tickets on Friday, a full 68 percent were over the age of 25, while men made up 59 percent of the audience. PHOTOS: Box Office Flops of Late Summer 2011 Chip-Wrecked, appealing heavily to families as expected, earned a B+ CinemaScore, compared to an A for the original. One bright spot at the Friday box office was the limited launch of Paramount's Tom Cruise starrer Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, which opened in 425 IMAX and large-format screens, grossing an estimated $4.6 million for a projected $12 million weekend (The $4.6 million includes $1.1 million in Thursday evening and midnight runs). The pic opens nationwide on Dec. 21. Anecdotal evidence suggests a big draw for Ghost Protocol is an 8-minute preview of Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight Rises, a Warner Bros. pic. Nolan used IMAX cameras to film some of his movie. http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-sherlock-holmes-mission-impossible-dark-knight-274859 CS: SH2 A- ALV3 B+ Very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 (edited) Maybe they could charge 3 dollars a ticket for Michael Bay movies too. Who would ever pay more than that for a Michael Bay movie?A lot of people, apparentlyI think a year ago someone wrote an article about theaters experimenting with demand-driven ticket pricing a la air fares. But most were opposed to it for a variety of reasons. Edited December 17, 2011 by tribefan695 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLK Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 We've seen a dramatic decline in ticket sales over the last two years. BOM does a poor job of estimating the yearly drops, because their ticket sale estimations do not properly take 3D into account. The actual declines in 2010 and 2011 are much worse than what it seems like. Couple that with growing ticket prices and we have a serious problem.To use a macroeconomic analogy, we're seeing stagflation. The price level continues to rise (ticket prices), while the output/Real GDP falls (ticket sales). Even Nominal GDP (overall gross) has been in decline. Hopefully, we see a rebound next year, but current conditions indicate otherwise.I think ticket prices are playing a part but overall we are talking about a difference of 4-5% in the gross which isn't what separates a hit movie from an average one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Based on Friday estimates: Sherlock should hit $41-44 million for the weekend, and should end around $190 million, with a shot at $200 Alvin 3, following the Alvin 1, is looking at a $23.7 million weekend, and from there, a $110-120 total. Perhaps we'll see some improvement in the coming days. MI4 is obviously too early to tell. This kind of release is a bit unprecedented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 We've seen a dramatic decline in ticket sales over the last two years. BOM does a poor job of estimating the yearly drops, because their ticket sale estimations do not properly take 3D into account. The actual declines in 2010 and 2011 are much worse than what it seems like. Couple that with growing ticket prices and we have a serious problem.To use a macroeconomic analogy, we're seeing stagflation. The price level continues to rise (ticket prices), while the output/Real GDP falls (ticket sales). Even Nominal GDP (overall gross) has been in decline. Hopefully, we see a rebound next year, but current conditions indicate otherwise.The average ticket price that BOM uses takes into account all the various tickets including cheaper Tuesdays, concessions, kids tickets. These offset the higher 3D and IMAX prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 I think ticket prices are playing a part but overall we are talking about a difference of 4-5% in the gross which isn't what separates a hit movie from an average one.Yes, the difference per movie is not that large, but take a look at the yearly lists. The lower you go, the more consistent the grosses get (albiet with some leverage here and there). The effect is happening from the top down and I think if we break the year up into seasons or quarters, this becomes even more prominent.The lower you go on the list, the lower the variance. Movies #1-10 are the most effected (not just gross wise, I'm talking about percentage wise). Movies #11-15 less so, movies #16-20 even less so, and on and on. Take a quick look at the 30th film of the year. From 2007-2010, the 30th film of the year was at $100 million, give or take a maximum of $7 million. Once this year closes, it too will join that list. The same holds true with the 25th film of the year ($125 million range) and the 20th film ($145 million range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasterDodsen Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Wow. What is going on with the Box Office? Is it the selection or is it just the audience is completely out of money? Hopefully next year can pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 It's not the films on offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The Alvin franchise is over. Unless it explodes OS, which is unlikely with Puss in Boots still going strong in most countries.SH still have a chance of ending the trilogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ball Lightning Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Box office is really slumping.. and with such a pattern, it is definitely more then the selection which is the root of the problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 But it's only really in "recession" in the US. Everywhere else it's going strong (or at least it seems to be). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchumacherFTW Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 To be honest, film is no better or worse than it has ever been, this is a crazy bad slump. When will it end? IF it ends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 (edited) Let's put it this way, SH2 opening day is higher than NYE opening weekend. So technically the BO did go up from last weekend.Baby steps towards positivity, baby steps. Edited December 17, 2011 by DAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK007 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Yes, the difference per movie is not that large, but take a look at the yearly lists. The lower you go, the more consistent the grosses get (albiet with some leverage here and there). The effect is happening from the top down and I think if we break the year up into seasons or quarters, this becomes even more prominent. The lower you go on the list, the lower the variance. Movies #1-10 are the most effected (not just gross wise, I'm talking about percentage wise). Movies #11-15 less so, movies #16-20 even less so, and on and on. Take a quick look at the 30th film of the year. From 2007-2010, the 30th film of the year was at $100 million, give or take a maximum of $7 million. Once this year closes, it too will join that list. The same holds true with the 25th film of the year ($125 million range) and the 20th film ($145 million range). Doesn't that mean though that people are watching less movies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 It means that people are downloading more movies, not that are watching less... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Wow. What is going on with the Box Office? Is it the selection or is it just the audience is completely out of money? Hopefully next year can pick it up.If the audience is out of money what will happen next December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Well the world is going to end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchumacherFTW Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 The Hobbit has only 4 or 5 days to make its bank!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Damn it! Can't this 2012 thing be delayed a year? I want to see The Hobbit 2 before I die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
