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Friday Estimates: SH2 $15m, Alv $8m, MI4 $4m

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Yeah I don't know who Moriarty is and the marketing team has done a pretty bad job of convincing people like me why he's an interesting character that would make this movie worth seeing.

You don't know who Moriarty is? :o
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I don't know why everyone's so glad about Alvin's low number. I'd rather have some movies do well to keep box office interesting than to have everything disappoint.

I would rather people save their money rather than spending it on mediocre films.
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I think The Hobbit is the most under-estimated film next year, at least on a DOM level.

+1As for this weekend, we're definitely seeing that the market hasn't that the market hasn't really improved at all from last year (if anything its gotten worse) and that the better summer was a result of there being 14 more films than the last summer, as there was a 2.6% increase in gross but a 8.5% increase in volume of films released. Barring Bridesmaids, Fast Five, The Help and a few other breakouts, this year was filled with underperformers. At this point, it doesn't bode well for 2012, though I really hope we see a recovery
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Alvin is fine. It's looking at 8-10m today, give it the same multiplier the original had in 2007 (with a better Sunday drop from snowstorms) and that's a 28m-34m weekend. Holidays will take it to 140m-160m- not what the last two did, but even without a sucky year for kidpics, it couldn't keep doing 200m forever. Sherlock 2 will have a Tron Legacy type of run and 500m+ worldwide. It's also fine. I want to know if that 4.1m MI4 figure includes the 1.1m from 9PM/midnight shows. Everything's still in place for a breakout movie. Will it be MI4 when it expands on Wednesday? Will it be Dragon Tattoo? War Horse? Tintin (probably/definitely not)?

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Alvin 1 opened to $44.3 million in 2007. Alvin 2 had a Wednesday opening in December 2009. Considering its 4 day was $60.4 million, Alvin 3's looking even more disappointing. Even if today is underestimated, and this somehow shoots over $35 million, this is still a massive drop. As has been said, this probably won't go too far past $160m, and I think there's potential for it to fall short not just of that, but $150m as well, if its opening drops to the high 20s

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Meanwhile, 20th Century Fox toon "Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked" will likely rank second, with observers putting the family film's Friday take at around $10 million, putting it on course for a $30 million three-day gross. More reserved estimations, however, peg the pic's weekend take slightly lower.

I just don't understand how from a 10 million friday it's expected to do 30 million or slightly lower. IMO friday will be its lowest day for the weekend. Parents & their kids will go see this movie on saturday and sunday, not friday night. You'll see!
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Sunday will most certainly be lower than Friday.

I just don't understand how from a 10 million friday it's expected to do 30 million or slightly lower. IMO friday will be its lowest day for the weekend. Parents & their kids will go see this movie on saturday and sunday, not friday night. You'll see!

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