Shazam! | April 5, 2019 | 21st Most Profitable Film of 2019

[a2k]

Was very bullish on Shazam and used to think 250 dom, but comparatively conservative projections last few days from different folks have given me a pause. I don't know how popular Shazam comics were compared to A-listers like Bat, Sup, Spidey. TA4 will also hit it significantly. Hoping for 65 ow, 205 dom.

Edited February 9, 2019 by a2k

[Godzilla]

When are they gonna start really marketing this movie? A trailer is long overdue.

[jking123]

I think DC has cut down marketing for their stuff lol. Shazam plus a more severe case being Doom Patrol(tv series)

[Zakiyyah6]

"Aquaman is not being marketed, it's going to flop."

[AHepBurn]

2 hours ago, Godzilla said:

When are they gonna start really marketing this movie? A trailer is long overdue.

WB's new marketing team has a strategy of low-key but persistent marketing to maintain awareness, especially closer to the release date, as opposed to to the traditional large periodic splashes of 3 huge trailers. With the way 2018 went for them, it's pretty inarguable this strategy is working out well for them. For what it's worth, they also seem to be very focused on targetting the demo they want with their marketing. As a parent, I've seen some consistent marketing for Shazam on childrens networks really recently. Considering my dqughter almost immediately said "Can we go see Shazam?" Immediately afterward, I think they're doing their job fine. We've seen this same concern for Aquaman and Wonder Woman, about how there's a significant lack of advertising and how it'll hurt their BO  and that simply didn't turn out to be true.

[Neucentro]

Shazam at this point is a lesser known name than Wonder Woman and Aquaman were before their releases. The latter characters have gained recognition from appearing in the ensemble movies. Shazam needs extra marketing push to get audiences familiar with the name.

Edited February 9, 2019 by Neucentro

[cax16]

A lot of you are forgetting the Shazam trailer has been playing in front of movies in theatres since last SDCC. Those are the people who WB need to get into theatres for Shazam(The GA). The online crowd already knows Shazam from the well received trailer last year. Buzz has been constantly good online from the trailer. 

 

It doesn’t matter if Shazam is less well known then Aquaman, this movie doesn’t have the same financial expectations as Aquaman did. The budget for this is probably half of Aquamans. 

 

[MrGlass2]

I was skeptical about this movie at the box office because it has teenage leads. But by YouTube law it should do decently, or better (even taking paid views into account).

 

The buzz for Aquaman was also "dead" two months before release. The cumulative effect is probably more important. Aquaman and Shazam's first trailers at Comic-Con were equally well received.

 

[DAJK]

I agree that WB needs to get on top of marketing this thing. I honestly think it has 300M potential if it's good. Now that Lego's out, maybe they can shift their attention to this (if they're not too busy with the Trench of course)

[cax16]

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I agree that WB needs to get on top of marketing this thing. I honestly think it has 300M potential if it's good. Now that Lego's out, maybe they can shift their attention to this (if they're not too busy with the Trench of course)

[LordNox]

The Shazam trailer does have a respectable 40M views on Youtube. Which is comparable to what the likes of Ant Man and Dr Strange got. Their is an interest. But the movie needs to be good to transfer that interest into good word of mouth to propell it into a good box office performance. If it also manages to get good reviews that will also be an added bonus. 

[Shawn Robbins]

On 2/8/2019 at 5:34 PM, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Find it hard to believe this won't crack $200M. Let's see if it changes after the 2nd Trailer drops. BoxOffice's tracking is too unreliable for DCEU films. They underestimated all the non-Snyder films and overestimated all the Snyder films. 

Actually, we were pretty close on 2 of his 3.

 

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-my-big-fat-greek-wedding-2/

 

http://cms.pro.boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2013-04-long-range-forecast-man-of-steel-this-is-the-end

[Shawn Robbins]

On 2/8/2019 at 1:10 PM, LordNox said:

One thing long range tracking can't really predict is the word of mouth of a movie as well as how good a movie is. If Shazam gets good ratings as well as good word of mouth it can easily perform more than they predict. 

Which is exactly what we said in the report.

[Shawn Robbins]

On 2/8/2019 at 5:48 PM, YourMother the Edgelord said:

So because @Shawn predict Shazam low they have a Disney bias even though it’s about the same as Dumbo. That said I suspect both are too low.

That's actually a thing around here?  

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, Shawn said:

That's actually a thing around here?  

Only for the fanatics it is. Only for the fanatics.

[Shawn Robbins]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Only for the fanatics it is. Only for the fanatics.

I wish we had a bias for Disney. Would have been a lot closer on Black Panther and Incredibles 2 last year. 😐

[Shawn Robbins]

And yeah, we blew Aquaman early on -- even though our final opening weekend # was too high.

 

One thing I've learned over the years is that DC movies rarely go the way one thinks they will. They behave very differently in tracking than most comic book movies, which makes for a damn headache when trying to find reliable comps.

 

As for now, we're comping Shazam! pretty closely with something like Ant-Man or Ready Player One (mainly for the spring release, teen cast, and fan aspect).

[MrGlass2]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

One thing I've learned over the years is that DC movies rarely go the way one thinks they will. They behave very differently in tracking than most comic book movies, which makes for a damn headache when trying to find reliable comps.

Well you could have predicted $320M for the last six then taken a nap, it would have been a pretty great first estimate.

Shazam will probably do less than that, but perhaps add this complex equation to your models:

Spoiler

Superhero = Money

 

[Zakiyyah6]

2 hours ago, Shawn said:

And yeah, we blew Aquaman early on -- even though our final opening weekend # was too high.

 

One thing I've learned over the years is that DC movies rarely go the way one thinks they will. They behave very differently in tracking than most comic book movies, which makes for a damn headache when trying to find reliable comps.

 

As for now, we're comping Shazam! pretty closely with something like Ant-Man or Ready Player One (mainly for the spring release, teen cast, and fan aspect).

In hindsight everybody should have been comparing Justice League to Ant-Man. That being said Shazam is the first DC film in a while it which that comparison doesn't annoy me. 

[YM!]

For those of complaining about marketing, I wouldn’t stressed, it killed at Lego 2.