Weekend Prediction thread 5/10-5/12 Play the Derby

[dxmatrixdt]

 

[Maxmoser3]

2017 is off to a shitty start(but I'm not surprised to be honest).Patriots Day:$30 million 3-day($38 million 4-day), Live By Night:$23 million 3-day($28 million 4-day), Sleepless:$10 million 3-day($13 million 4-day), Bye Bye Man:$8 million 3-day($10.5 million 4-day), Monster Trucks:$6 million 3-day($9 million 4-day).

[Impact]

I see Patriots Day winning next weekend. (possibly 30M+)

[franfar]

Long Range Forecast: ‘Logan’

The month of March has surged in recent years to become one of the biggest months at the box office, rivaling even the summer and holiday movie seasons. The first weekend of March 2017 will try to start off with a bang in hopes of rivaling the billion-dollar March of 2016, when Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice and Zootopia were huge. Leading the way this time will be Fox’s superhero action sequel Logan. Also opening on the first weekend of the month are the Lionsgate drama The Shack, the Weinstein Company animated Leap! and the Open Road Films teen drama Before I Fall.

Logan (Fox)

PROS:

• Hugh Jackman stars as Wolverine in the third solo film starring the most famous character from the X-Men franchise. Both previous installments were hits, as 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine started with an $85.0 million opening en route to $179.8 million total, while 2013’s The Wolverine began with $53.1 million on its way to $132.5 million total.
• The trailer has been gaining strong buzz for its highly unusual strategy of showing almost entirely emotional shots alongside the tragic song “Hurt” by Johnny Cash, with very few action or special effects shots — a virtually unheard-of strategy for a superhero film.

CONS:

• Although the MPAA has not yet rated the film, rumors abound that it will receive an R rating, unlike the PG-13 earned by the previous two Wolverine films and all X-Men installments. Conventional wisdom is that this would hurt the film’s grosses, although that paradigm may have shifted since last year’s R-rated superhero Deadpool earned $363.0 million.
• Although both the first two films were indeed hits, the second installment did represent a 26.3 percent downturn in domestic earnings from the first installment. Will the third installment be able to reverse that trend? After all, unlike both previous installments and almost much every other superhero movie, the main character’s name is not in the title here — perhaps some people won’t realize it’s a new Wolverine movie? (Then again, The Dark Knight became one of the most financially successful films of all time in 2008 despite not having the word “Batman” in the title.)

Title	Wide Release Date	Distributor	Opening Weekend	Cumulative
Logan	Fri, Mar 3	Fox	$81,000,000	$205,000,000

[WrathOfHan]

All 3 day:

 

Patriots Day: 20M

Hidden Figures: 16.5M

Sing: 16M

Rogue One: 15.5M

La La Land: 15M

Monster Trucks: 12M

Live By Night: 10M

Underworld: 7.5M

The Bye Bye Man: 7M

Passengers: 5.5M

Sleepless: 5M

Silence: 4M

Edited January 9, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[dudalb]

You are overestimating Monsters Trucks by quite a bit.

[filmlover]

This looks like a dud of a weekend despite so many releases. Only Patriots Day looks to do significant business and it won't even be that significant.

[JonathanLB]

Dumping ground time! lol. Isn't that what January is for? You wrote off the movie already, now you dump it into some theaters struggling for new releases and they begrudgingly play your garbage for a few weeks so you can say you gave it the good ol' college try  January's best releases are mainly films going from limited to wide, basically. 

[DAJK]

So for my theatre I predicted Monster Trucks will do our equivalent of $16.6M for the 3-day, and Patriots Day our equivalent of $21.1M.

 

For total domestic box office, I'm thinking 13 and 27 respectively.

[franfar]

7 hours ago, dudalb said:

You are overestimating Monsters Trucks by quite a bit.

Really now

[Impact]

Well Patriots Day is the only thing I really want to see that comes out this month. The rest of the releases don't look that great to me-out of the ones I've seen anything for.

[Krissykins]

Patriots Day  20,000,000

Live By Night 13,000,000

Bye Bye Man 10,000,000

Sleepless 10,000,000

Monster Trucks 9,000,000

[Blankments]

1. Patriots Day - 20.4M
2. Hidden Figures - 19.2M
3. Sing - 14.1M
4. Live by Night - 12.3M
5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 11.9M
6. La La Land - 11.7M
7. Monster Trucks - 9.8M
8. The Bye Bye Man - 6.4M
9. Underworld: Blood Wars - 6.4M
10. Passengers - 5.7M
11. Why Him? - 5.1M
12. Moana - 4.7M

Silence - 4.6M

Sleepless - 4.4M

Fences - 2.3M

Lion - 2.2M

Manchester by the Sea - 1.9M

Assassin's Creed - 1.6M

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 1.2M

[Blankments]

On 1/5/2017 at 11:21 PM, Blankments said:

Arrival is gone.

Assassin's Creed, Collateral Beauty, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, and Office Christmas Party are gone.

 

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 12/5 (2D/IMAX 3D) total 17 (down 14)

The Bye Bye Man - 16 (debut)

Patriots Day - 16 (debut)

Sleepless - 16 (debut)

Underworld: Blood Wars - 13/3 (2D/3D) total 16 (down 1)

Monster Trucks - 6/4/4/1 (2D/2D with D-BOX/3D/3D with D-BOX) total 15 (debut)

Sing - 15 (down 10)

La La Land - 14 (down 1)

Live by Night - 14 (down 1)

Why Him? - 14 (down 2)

Hidden Figures - 13 (down 2)

Fences - 8 (down 6)
Moana - 8 (down 2)

Passengers - 7 (down 7)

A Monster Calls - 6 (down 10)

Manchester by the Sea - 6 (down 3)

 

And now, back to college....

 

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - 14/1 (2D/3D) total 15

Sing - 15

Hidden Figures - 10

Live by Night - 10

Monster Trucks - 6/4 (2D/3D) total 10

Patriots Day - 10

Sleepless - 10

Underworld: Blood Wars - 6/4 (2D/3D) total 10

The Bye Bye Man - 5

Fences - 5
La La Land - 5

Passengers - 5
A Monster Calls - 3

Assassin's Creed - 2

Moana - 2

Moonlight - 2

[mahnamahna]

 

Spoiler

 

1/20-1/22

1. Split: $36.5 million 
2. XXX - The Return of Xander Cage: $25 million 
3. Hidden Figures: $13 million ($76 million) 
4. La La Land: $11 million ($92 million) 
5. Sing: $7 million ($246 million) 
6. Rogue One: $6.5 million ($510 million) 
7. Patriots Day: $6.5 million ($24 million) 
8. Monster Trucks: $5 million ($19 million) 
9. The Bye-Bye Man: $4.5 million ($21 million) 
10. The Founder: $3.5 million 

1/27-1/29

1. A Dog's Purpose: $28 million 
2. Split: $19.5 million ($66 million) 
3. La La Land: $14 million ($113 million) 
4. Resident Evil - The Last Chapter: $12 million 
5. Hidden Figures: $10.5 million ($92 million) 
6. XXX - The Return of Xander Cage: $9.5 million ($40 million) 
7. Sing: $4 million ($251 million) 
8. Patriots Day: $4 million ($30 million) 
9. Rogue One: $4 million ($516 million) 
10. Gold: $3 million 

2/3-2/5

1. A Dog's Purpose: $17 million ($52 million) 
2. The Space Between Us: $13 million 
3. Split: $10.5 million ($82 million) 
4. La La Land: $9 million ($127 million) 
5. Rings: $8 million 
6. Hidden Figures: $6.5 million ($102 million) 
7. XXX - The Return of Xander Cage: $4 million ($46 million) 
8. Resident Evil - The Last Chapter: $3.5 million ($18 million) 
9. Sing: $2.5 million ($254 million) 
10. Rogue One: $2 million ($519 million) 

2/10-2/12

1. The LEGO Batman Movie: $106.5 million 
2. Fifty Shades Darker: $40.5 million 
3. John Wick - Chapter Two: $18 million 
4. A Dog's Purpose: $9.5 million ($65 million) 
5. La La Land: $7.5 million ($138 million) 
6. The Space Between Us: $7 million ($23 million) 
7. Split: $6.5 million ($92 million) 
8. Hidden Figures: $5 million ($110 million) 
9. Rings: $3 million ($13 million) 
10. XXX - The Return of Xander Cage: $2 million ($49 million)

2/17-2/20

1. The LEGO Batman Movie: $65 million/$82.5 million ($222 million)
2. Fist Fight: $28 million/$34 million 
3. The Great Wall: $19 million/$23.5 million 
4. Fifty Shades Darker: $14 million/$16.5 million ($69 million) 
5. John Wick - Chapter Two: $10 million/$11.5 million ($36 million)
6. A Cure for Wellness: $9 million/$10 million 
7. A Dog's Purpose: $8 million/$9.5 million ($78 million) 
8. La La Land: $7 million/$7.75 million ($149 million) 
9. Patient Zero: $4.5 million/$5 million 
10. Hidden Figures: $4 million/$4.75 million ($114 million) 

2/24-2/26

1. The LEGO Batman Movie: $36 million ($267 million)
2. Get Out: $23 million 
3. Fist Fight: $14.5 million ($53 million) 
4. The Great Wall: $10 million ($36 million) 
5. Fifty Shades Darker: $7 million ($78 million)
6. John Wick - Chapter Two: $6 million ($44 million) 
7. A Dog's Purpose: $5.5 million ($85 million) 
8. La La Land: $4.5 million ($155 million) 
9. Rock Dog: $4 million 
10. A Cure for Wellness: $3.5 million ($14 million) 

3/3-3/5

1. Logan: $82 million 
2. The LEGO Batman Movie: $20.5 million ($298 million)
3. Get Out: $14 million ($46 million)
4. The Shack: $12.5 million 
5. Fist Fight: $9 million ($67 million) 
6. Before I Fall: $6 million 
7. The Great Wall: $5 million ($44 million)
8. Fifty Shades Darker: $4 million ($85 million)
9. A Dog's Purpose: $3.5 million ($91 million) 
10. La La Land: $3.5 million ($161 million) 

3/10-3/12

1. Logan: $45 million ($153 million) 
2. Kong - Skull Island: $40.5 million 
3. The LEGO Batman Movie: $13 million ($319 million) 
4. Get Out: $9 million ($61 million) 
5. The Shack: $8 million ($25 million) 
6. Fist Fight: $6 million ($77 million) 
7. The Wall: $5 million 
8. Before I Fall: $3 million ($11 million) 
9. The Great Wall: $2.5 million ($48 million) 
10. A Dog's Purpose: $2.5 million ($95 million) 

3/17-3/19

1. Beauty & the Beast: $163 million 
2. Logan: $24 million ($194 million) 
3. Kong - Skull Island: $16 million ($68 million) 
4. The LEGO Batman Movie: $6 million ($329 million) 
5. Get Out: $5 million ($69 million) 
6. The Shack: $4.5 million ($32 million) 
7. Fist Fight: $3.5 million ($83 million) 
8. The Belko Experiment: $3 million 
9. The Wall: $2.5 million ($9 million) 
10. Free Fire: $2 million 

3/24-3/26

1. Beauty & the Beast: $91.5 million ($327 million)
2. CHiPs: $23 million 
3. Power Rangers: $19 million
4. Life: $15 million 
5. Logan: $12 million ($215 million) 
6. Kong - Skull Island: $8.5 million ($83 million) 
7. Get Out: $3.5 million ($75 million) 
8. The Shack: $3 million ($37 million) 
9. The LEGO Batman Movie: $3 million ($334 million) 
10. Fist Fight: $2 million ($86 million)

3/31-4/2

1. Beauty & the Beast: $50.5 million ($421 million)
2. Ghost in the Shell: $24 million 
3. The Boss Baby: $15.5 million 
4. CHiPs: $14 million ($46 million) 
5. Power Rangers: $9.5 mililon ($36 million) 
6. Life: $9 million ($31 million) 
7. The Zookeeper's Wife: $8.5 million 
8. Logan: $8 million ($229 million) 
9. Kong - Skull Island: $4.5 million ($91 million) 
10. Step Sisters: $3 million 

4/7-4/9

1. Beauty & the Beast: $32 million ($472 million) 
2. Going in Style: $20.5 million
3. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $16.5 million 
4. Ghost in the Shell: $13 million ($46 million) 
5. The Case for Christ: $9 million 
6. The Boss Baby: $7 million ($28 million) 
7. CHiPs: $6.5 million ($57 million) 
8. Logan: $6 million ($239 million) 
9. Life: $5.5 million ($40 million) 
10. Power Rangers: $5 million ($44 million)

4/14-4/16

1. The Fate of the Furious: $124.5 million 
2. Beauty & the Beast: $21.5 million ($503 million) 
3. Going in Style: $13 million ($40 million) 
4. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $10 million ($31 million) 
5. The Case for Christ: $6.5 million ($19 million) 
6. Ghost in the Shell: $5 million ($54 million) 
7. The Boss Baby: $4.5 million ($35 million) 
8. CHiPs: $3.5 million ($62 million) 
9. Logan: $3 million ($243 million) 
10. Spark: $3 million 

4/21-4/23

1. The Fate of the Furious: $49.5 million ($203 million) 
2. Unforgettable: $16 million 
3. Beauty & the Beast: $15 million ($523 million) 
4. Going in Style: $9 million ($54 million) 
5. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $7.5 million ($41 million) 
6. Born in China: $6 million 
7. The Case for Christ: $4.5 million ($26 million)
8. The Boss Baby: $3 million ($39 million) 
9. Ghost in the Shell: $3 million ($58 million) 
10. CHiPs: $2.5 million ($61 million)

4/28-4/30

1. The Fate of the Furious: $26 million ($243 million)
2. Untitled Paramount IMAX: $17 million 
3. Beauty & the Beast: $12 million ($539 million)
4. The Circle: $10.5 million 
5. Blumhouse Horror: $8 million 
6. Going in Style: $7 million ($65 million) 
7. Unforgettable: $6.5 million ($26 million) 
8. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $6 million ($49 million) 
9. The Case for Christ: $3 million ($43 million)
10. Born in China: $2.5 million ($9 million) 

5/5-5/7

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $160.5 million 
2. The Fate of the Furious: $11 million ($260 million)
3. Beauty & the Beast: $7.5 million ($549 million)
4. Untitled Paramount IMAX: $6 million ($26 million)
5. Going in Style: $4.5 million ($72 million)
6. The Circle: $4 million ($17 million)
7. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $3 million ($53 million)
8. Unforgettable: $3 million ($31 million) 
9. Blumhouse Horror: $2.5 million ($12 million)
10. The Case for Christ: $2 million ($46 million) 

5/12-5/14

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $70 million ($266 million)
2. Snatched: $33 million 
3. King Arthur: $17.5 million 
4. Beauty & the Beast: $8 million ($559 million) 
5. The Fate of the Furious: $6.5 million ($270 million) 
6. Going in Style: $3.5 million ($77 million) 
7. The Circle: $2.5 million ($21 million) 
8. Untitled Paramount IMAX: $2.5 million ($30 million) 
9. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $2 million ($55 million) 
10. Unforgettable: $1.5 million ($33 million) 

5/19-5/21

1. Alien - Covenant: $63 million 
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $36.5 million ($321 million)
3. Snatched: $21 million ($64 million)
4. Everything, Everything: $9 million 
5. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - The Long Haul: $8 million 
6. King Arthur: $7.5 million ($29 million)
7. Beauty & the Beast: $5.5 million ($566 million)
8. The Fate of the Furious: $3 million ($274 million)
9. Going in Style: $2 million ($80 million)
10. The Circle: $1.5 million ($23 million)

5/26-5/29

1. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $59 million/$75.5 million 
2. Baywatch: $38 million/$47.5 million 
3. Alien - Covenant: $31 million/$37.5 million ($115 million)
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $19 million/$24.5 million ($355 million)
5. Snatched: $12 million/$14.5 million ($84 million) 
6. Everything, Everything: $6 million/$7 million ($19 million)
7. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - The Long Haul: $5 million/$6.5 million ($16 million)
8. Beauty & the Beast: $4 million/$5 million ($572 million) 
9. King Arthur: $3.5 million/$4 million ($35 million)
10. Going in Style: $1.5 million/$2 million ($82 million) 

 

 

1.  

Edited January 16, 2017 by mahnamahna

[filmlover]

Split- $25M

xXx: The Return of Xander Cage- $15M

The Founder- $3M

The Resurrection of Galvin Stone- less than $2M

[Maxmoser3]

Split:$28 million, XxX 3:$22 million. The Founder:$4 million.

[Maxmoser3]

Split and XxX could sadly be the bright lights of 2017 new releases(well at least Split will be)

[WrathOfHan]

Split: 35M

xXx: 22M

La La Land: 14M

Hidden Figures: 13.5M

Sing: 8.5M

Rogue One: 6.9M

Patriots Day: 6.5M

The Bye Bye Man: 5.5M

Monster Trucks: 5M 

Sleepless: 4M

Live By Night: 2.5M

The Founder: 2M

Gavin Stone: 1.5M

[filmlover]

I don't understand where the somewhat large predictions xXx are coming from. This feels at least 12 years too late.