Weekend Prediction thread 6/21-6/23 Play the Derby

[Impact]

Since I wont be here on it's OW: TMNT 2: 70M

As for the other 2 films-no idea.

[mahnamahna]

5/27-5/30

1. X-Men - Apocalypse: $83 million/$99 million

2. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $58 million/$69 million

3. The Angry Birds Movie: $26.5 million/$33.5 million ($79 million)

4. Captain America - Civil War: $20.5 million/$26 million ($384 million)

5. Neighbors 2: $10.5 million/$13 million ($40 million)

6. The Jungle Book: $7 million/$8.5 million ($339 million)

7. The Nice Guys: $6 million/$7 million ($21 million)

8. Money Monster: $5 million/$5.75 million ($35 million)

9. Zootopia: $1.5 million/$2 million ($337 million)

10. The Darkness: $1.25 million/$1.5 million ($10 million) 

 

6/3-6/5

1. TMNT 2: $41.5 million 

2. X-Men - Apocalypse: $30.5 million ($145 million) 

3. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $24 million ($103 million) 

4. Me Before You: $18 million 

5. The Angry Birds Movie: $14 million ($97 million) 

6. Captain America - Civil War: $9 million ($396 million) 

7. Popstar: $7.5 million 

8. Neighbors 2: $4.5 million ($47 million) 

9. The Jungle Book: $4 million ($344 million) 

10. The Nice Guys: $3.5 million ($26 million) 

 

6/10-6/12

1. The Conjuring 2: $48 million 

2. Warcraft: $33 million 

3. TMNT 2: $19 million ($75 million) 

4. Now You See Me 2: $15.5 million 

5. X-Men - Apocalypse: $13 million ($167 million) 

6. Me Before You: $10.5 million ($35 million) 

7. The Angry Birds Movie: $9 million ($110 million) 

8. Captain America - Civil War: $5 million ($405 million) 

9. Popstar: $3 million ($12 million) 

10. Neighbors 2: $2.5 million ($51 million) 

 

6/17-6/19

1. Finding Dory: $130.5 million 

2. Central Intelligence: $57.5 million 

3. The Conjuring 2: $17 million ($78 million)

4. Warcraft: $12 million ($54 million) 

5. TMNT 2: $8 million ($89 million) 

6. Now You See Me 2: $7 million ($28 million) 

7. Me Before You: $6 million ($46 million) 

8. X-Men - Apocalypse: $5 million ($175 million) 

9. Captain America - Civil War: $3.5 million ($411 million) 

10. The Angry Birds Movie: $2.5 million ($115 million) 

 

6/24-6/26

1. Finding Dory: $81 million ($284 million) 

2. Independence Day 2: $63.5 million 

3. Central Intelligence: $35.5 million ($124 million) 

4. The Conjuring 2: $9 million ($95 million) 

5. Free State of Jones: $7 million 

6. Warcraft: $5 million ($64 million) 

7. Me Before You: $4 million ($54 million) 

8. TMNT 2: $3.5 million ($96 million) 

9. Now You See Me 2: $3 million ($34 million) 

10. X-Men - Apocalypse: $2 million ($179 million) 

 

7/1-7/4

1. Finding Dory: $44.5 million/$57 million ($383 million)

2. The BFG: $36.5 million/$45 million 

3. Independence Day 2: $32 million/$46 million ($140 million) 

4. Central Intelligence: $21 million/$26 million ($171 million) 

5. The Purge - Election Year: $14 million/$17 million 

6. The Shallows: $12 million/$14 million ($25 million) 

7. The Legend of Tarzan: $10 million/$12 million 

8. Free State of Jones: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($17 million) 

9. The Conjuring 2: $3 million/$3.5 million ($101 million) 

10. Me Before You: $2.5 million/$3 million ($59 million) 

 

7/8-7/10

1. The Secret Lives of Pets: $67 million 

2. Finding Dory: $20.5 million ($417 million) 

3. The BFG: $16.5 million ($69 million) 

4. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $14 million

5. Independence Day 2: $13 million ($157 million) 

6. Central Intelligence: $11 million ($188 million) 

7. The Shallows: $7 million ($35 million)

8. The Purge - Election Year: $6 million ($26 million)

9. The Legend of Tarzan: $4 million ($18 million)

10. Free State of Jones: $3 million ($21 million) 

 

7/15-7/17

1. The Secret Lives of Pets: $43.5 million ($154 million) 

2. Ghostbusters: $35.5 million 

3. Finding Dory: $13.5 million ($443 million)

4. The BFG: $10 million ($88 million) 

5. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $7.5 million ($28 million) 

6. Independence Day 2: $7 million ($171 million) 

7. Central Intelligence: $6 million ($200 million) 

8. The Shallows: $4 million ($43 million)

9. The Infiltrator: $3.5 million 

10. The Purge - Election Year: $3 million ($32 million) 

 

7/22-7/24

1. Star Trek Beyond: $76.5 million 

2. Ice Age 5: $27.5 million 

3. The Secret Lives of Pets: $24 million ($201 million) 

4. Ghostbusters: $16 million ($67 million) 

5. Lights Out: $10 million

6. Finding Dory: $7 million ($457 million)

7. The BFG: $6 million ($99 million)

8. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $4 million ($36 million)

9. Independence Day 2: $3 million ($177 million) 

10. Central Intelligence: $3 million ($206 million) 

 

Edited May 23, 2016 by mahnamahna

[WrathOfHan]

X-Men Apocalypse: 70M (15M Memorial Day)

Alice: 57M (8M)

Angry Birds: 23.4M (2M)

Captain America: 17.2M (3.3M)

Neighbors: 8.7M (1.9M)

The Nice Guys: 7.3M (1M)

The Jungle Book: 7M (1.2M)

Money Monster: 4.3M (800k)

Zootopia: 1.1M (400k)

A Bigger Splash: 1M 

[filmlover]

I'm not feeling either of these openers.

[johnboy3434]

Initial weekend estimates (four-day grosses)...

 

The Angry Birds Movie - $27.9M

Captain America: Civil War - $26.7M

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising - $12.1M

The Nice Guys - $7.19M

Money Monster - $2.53M

The Darkness - $908k

[mrqe93]

Four-day:

 

X-Men - 60

Alice 2 - 55 

 

[moviesRus]

Blegh, this weekend is going to be boring. 

 

4 days: 

X-Men: $85m 

Alice: $70m 

Angry Birds: $30m 

Cap: $24m 

Neighbors: $12m 

[Krissykins]

4 Day:

 

X-Men Apocalypse $90,000,000

Alice Through the Looking Glass $65,000,000 (around 50% drop off, same as Neighbors 2)
Angry Birds    $22,000,000
Neighbors 2    $14,000,000
Civil War    $16,000,000
Nice Guys    $7,300,000
Money Monster   $5,250,000

Edited May 23, 2016 by Krissykins

[Fey]

On 5/20/2016 at 7:55 PM, department store basement said:

 

Where? I haven't seen any in ages. It's all Cap, Cap, Cap now.

Just last night at the Billboard Music Awards, Pink sang that song she did for its soundtrack with an Alice-themed performance, and it felt like there was an ad for it every commercial break. 

[Impact]

Well I was watching Disney channel with my 13 year old nephew the other day and there was a Alice themed ad every other commercial break-they also had Captain America ads also.

[Truckasaurus]

Well, I have no idea what to predict for these new films. But I'll give it a try. 

 

4-DAY ESTIMATES

1) X-Men: Apocalypse 
$84.2M

 

2) Alice Through the Looking Glass
$72.3M 

 

3) Angry Birds
$28.8M 

 

4) Captain America: Civil War
$24M

 

5) Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

$14.6M

[Blankments]

3-Day:

1. X-Men: Apocalypse - 73.7M (89.7M 4-Day)
2. Alice Through the Looking Glass - 49.3M (63.7M 4-Day)
3. The Angry Birds Movie - 20.2M
4. Captain America: Civil War - 13.2M
5. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising - 9.6M
6. The Jungle Book - 6.5M
7. The Nice Guys - 6.1M
8. Money Monster - 3.6M
9. Love and Friendship - 1.8M
10. The Darkness - 1.0M
11. Zootopia - 1.0M
12. The Meddler - 0.9M

[dudalb]

Given the huge budgets for Alice 2 and X Men apocalypse, I smell two big films underperforming this weekend.

And I think the legs for both will be poor.

[Impact]

X-Men films have always had bad legs. Not horror film bad-but still it is known for being one of the most frontloaded franchises out there.

[trifle]

9 hours ago, Impact said:

Well I was watching Disney channel with my 13 year old nephew the other day and there was a Alice themed ad every other commercial break-they also had Captain America ads also.

 

They are on youtube and billboards and bus posters all over near where I live.  I have seen exactly one XMen billboard.

 

But I think XMen will be in the 90/100 range.

 

No idea about Alice.  I don't think the two are going for the same audiences.

[department store basement]

1 hour ago, trifle said:

They are on youtube and billboards and bus posters all over near where I live.  I have seen exactly one XMen billboard.

 

In the LA area it's the opposite. Tons of X-Men posters, very little Alice.

[stripe]

115M 4day for X-Men

75M 4day for Alice2

 

Besides them (4day)

Angry Birds 27M (-30%)

CW 22M (-35%)

Neighbours2 14M (-35%)

TJB 7.5M (-35%)

Nice Guys 6.5M (-40%)

Money Monster 5M (-30%)

Darkness 1M

Zootopia 1M

 

Top10 - 274M

 

[Blankments]

On 5/18/2016 at 11:12 AM, Blank Panther said:

Keanu, The Boss, Green Room, Barbershop: The Next Cut and Star Wars: The Force Awakens are gone. Drive-in is The Jungle Book and Captain America: Civil War.

Mother's Day, Ratchet and Clank, The Meddler, Zootopia, A Hologram for the King, and My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 are gone. Drive-in is X-Men: Apocalypse and The Huntsman: Winter's War.

 

X-Men: Apocalypse - 23/2/15/2 (2D/2D with D-BOX/3D/3D with D-BOX) total 42 (debut)

Alice Through the Looking Glass - 19/12/6 (2D/3D/IMAX 3D) total 37 (debut)

The Angry Birds Movie - 22/10 (2D/3D) total 32 (down 8)
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising - 32 (down 5)
Captain America: Civil War - 19/3 (2D/3D) total 22 (down 18)
The Nice Guys - 16 (no change)
The Jungle Book - 13/2 (2D/3D) total 15 (down 2)
Money Monster - 10 (down 6)
The Darkness - 2 (down 15)

The Huntsman: Winter's War - 1 (down 6)

[mrqe93]

I've seen tons of X-Men posters everywhere in Toronto, but very few for Alice 2. But I've seen noticeable more TV spots for Alice 2.

 

4-day prediction:

 

65 for X-Men

48 for Alice 2

Edited May 26, 2016 by mrqe93

[johnboy3434]

My would-be Derby numbers (all four-day) except for the fact that I'm not tracking The Jungle Book...

 

Alice Through the Looking Glass - $81.6M

X-Men: Apocalypse - $74.3M

The Angry Birds Movie - $32.4M (-15%)

Captain America: Civil War - $20M (-39.4%)

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising - $9.74M (-55.2%)

The Nice Guys - $7.01M (-37.4%)

Money Monster - $2.74M (-60.9%)

The Darkness - $868k (-61.8%)