Weekend Prediction thread 6/14-6/16 Play the Derby

[CelestialFairyIX]

June 17 - 19:

1. Finding Dory, $125 - 130 million

2. The Conjuring 2, $20 - 21 million

3. Central Intelligence, $20 - 23 million

4. Now You See Me 2, $11 - 13 million

5. Warcraft, $8.4 - 9 million

 

[mrqe93]

Pixar has average PTA of approximately $18666 for all 6 movies released this decade. This puts OW for FD at $80mil. 

 

The original FN had PTA at $29000 with inflation. This puts OW for FD at $127mil

 

For now my prediction for FD is $105mil. 

Edited June 17, 2016 by mrqe93

[Nova]

11 minutes ago, mrqe93 said:

Pixar has average PTA of approximately $18666 for all 6 movies released this decade. This puts OW for FD at $80mil. 

 

The original FN had PTA at $29000 with inflation. This puts OW for FD at $127mil

 

For now my prediction for FD is $105. 

$105? That's the price of a soda and nachos at the theaters. Biggest box office bomb of all time is happening folks. 

Edited June 17, 2016 by Nova

[mrqe93]

16 minutes ago, Nova said:

$105? That's the price of a soda and nachos at the theaters. Biggest box office bomb of all time is happening folks. 

 

lol

 

What theater charges $100 for soda and nacho? Does the nacho come with lobster and caviar? From what I remember, I had nacho and soda for $20ish

Edited June 17, 2016 by mrqe93

[Truckasaurus]

1) Finding Dory
$112M

 

2) Central Intelligence
$32.3M

 

3) The Conjuring 2

$18.2M (-55%)

 

4) Now You See Me 2

$12.4M (-44%)

 

5) Warcraft

$8.7M (-64%)

[POTUS 2020]

On ‎6‎/‎15‎/‎2016 at 3:45 AM, johnboy3434 said:

Here's my projections for next weekend and total grosses based on Monday's numbers (returning films only). Warcraft's total went completely off the rails.

 

The Conjuring 2                                                     $20.5M (-49.4%)  $118M (2.93x)

Now You See Me 2                                                 $16.8M (-25.1%)  $87.5M (3.91x)

Warcraft                                                                $8.55M (-64.6%)  $103M (4.25x)

Me Before You                                                        $7.07M (-21.8%)  $65.5M (3.5x)

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows  $6.51M (-54.7%)   $87.3M (2.47x)

X-Men: Apocalypse                                                 $4.83M (-51.2%)   $152M (1.9x)

The Angry Birds Movie                                             $4.08M (-37.7%)  $112M (2.94x)

Alice Through the Looking Glass                               $3.49M (-38.2%)   $85.1M (2.54x)

Captain America: Civil War                                       $2.28M (-47.1%)  $405M (2.26x)

The Nice Guys                                                         $990k (-49.5%)   $37.1M (3.31x)

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising                                                                 $54.1M (2.49x)

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping                                                      $9.43M (2.01x)

 

AB going to get killed by FD. -60%~

-25% on NYSM2? -21% MBY? incredible holds for mixed movies

A2 going to be more than 50% like toitles

[johnboy3434]

14 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

AB going to get killed by FD. -60%~

-25% on NYSM2? -21% MBY? incredible holds for mixed movies

A2 going to be more than 50% like toitles

 

I'll have updated estimates later today. I've fixed the issue with NYSM2 and MBY, but Alice and ABM probably aren't going to be any better.

 

Edited June 17, 2016 by johnboy3434

[johnboy3434]

@No Prisoners Here's my final projections for the weekend. Numbers in red are either not my numbers (generally the new films) or estimates of mine that I am not at all confident in (generally the movies on their second weekends). Also, does anybody know how to make tables with this forum software?

 

Finding Dory	$127.5M		$395M	(3.1x)
Central Intelligence	$36.5M		$110M	(3.01x)
The Conjuring 2	$19.1M	(-52.6%)	$119M	(2.96x)
Now You See Me 2	$10.6M	(-52.4%)	$66.8M	(2.98x)
Warcraft	$8.25M	(-65.8%)	$59.2M	(2.45x)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows	$7.25M	(-49.6%)	$90.7M	(2.57x)
Me Before You	$5.42M	(-40%)	$62.1M	(3.32x)
The Angry Birds Movie	$4.4M	(-32.8%)	$113M	(2.97x)
X-Men: Apocalypse	$4.23M	(-57.4%)	$151M	(1.89x)
Alice Through the Looking Glass	$3.62M	(-35.8%)	$79.8M	(2.38x)
Captain America: Civil War	$2.47M	(-42.8%)	$405M	(2.26x)

 

Edited June 18, 2016 by johnboy3434

[zackzack]

On June 17, 2016 at 7:50 AM, mrqe93 said:

Pixar has average PTA of approximately $18666 for all 6 movies released this decade. This puts OW for FD at $80mil. 

 

The original FN had PTA at $29000 with inflation. This puts OW for FD at $127mil

 

For now my prediction for FD is $105mil. 

 

Keep on swimming?

[Impact]

ID4 2: 70M

Free State of Jones: 14M

No clue what to predict for the other 2 films.

[filmlover]

Independence Day: Resurgence- $54M

The Shallows- $18M

Free State of Jones- $10M

The Neon Demon- $2M

[Nova]

ID4- $43M 

The Shallows-$19.5M  

Free State of Jones-$14M 

Neon Demon-$1.5M 

 

[WrathOfHan]

Finding Dory: 70M

Independence Day: 42M

The Shallows: 18M

Central Intelligence: 17M

Free State of Jones: 13M

The Conjuring: 7.7M

Now You See Me: 4.8M

X-Men: 2.6M

TMNT: 2.5M

Warcraft: 2.4M

[filmlover]

I kinda wouldn't be surprised if Free State of Jones goes sub-$10M tbh. Marketing is plentiful but I dunno, it looks kinda boring.

[Maxmoser3]

Independence Day:Resurgance:48 million, The Shallows: 14 million, Free State Of Jones: 9 million, Neon Demon:1 million.

[DAJK]

1. Dory - $78M

2. ID4R - $57M

 

Shallows - $17.6M

Jones - $12.1M

[Ezen Baklattan]

1. Finding Dory - $70.8m
2. Independence Day: Resurgence - $54.8m
3. Central Intelligence - $20.3m
4. The Shallows - $14.6m
5. Free State of Jones - $9.3m
6. The Conjuring 2 - $8.1m
7. Now You See Me 2 - $4.8m
8. X-Men: Apocalypse - $3.3m
9. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows - $2.8m
10. Warcraft - $2.6m

[mahnamahna]

6/24-6/26

1. Finding Dory: $80.5 million ($291 million)
2. Independence Day - Resurgence: $39 million
3. Central Intelligence: $21 million ($75 million)
4. The Shallows: $16 million
5. Free State of Jones: $13 million 
6. The Conjuring 2: $7.5 million ($87 million)
7. Now You See Me 2: $5.5 million ($52 million)
8. Me Before You: $3 million ($52 million)
9. Warcraft: $2.5 million ($43 million)
10. The Neon Demon: $2.5 million 

7/1-7/4

1. Finding Dory: $45 million/$57.5 million ($393 million) 
2. The BFG: $31 million/$38 million 
3. Independence Day - Resurgence: $23 million/$31 million ($93 million)
4. The Purge - Election Year: $16 million/$19.5 million 
5. The Legend of Tarzan: $15 million/$18 million 
6. Central Intelligence: $13 million/$15.5 million ($103 million)
7. Free State of Jones: $7.5 million/$9 million ($37 million) 
8. The Shallows: $6 million/$7 million ($28 million) 
9. Now You See Me 2: $3 million/$3.5 million ($58 million) 
10. The Conjuring 2: $2.5 million/$3 million ($92 million) 

7/8-7/10

1. The Secret Lives of Pets: $84.5 million 
2. Finding Dory: $20.5 million ($421 million) 
3. The BFG: $15 million ($60 million) 
4. Independence Day - Resurgence: $11 million ($110 million) 
5. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $9 million 
6. The Purge - Election Year: $7 million ($31 million) 
7. Central Intelligence: $6.5 million ($113 million) 
8. The Legend of Tarzan: $6 million ($27 million) 
9. Free State of Jones: $4.5 million ($44 million) 
10. The Shallows: $3 million ($32 million) 

7/15-7/17

1. Ghostbusters: $67 million 
2. The Secret Lives of Pets: $53 million ($191 million)
3. Finding Dory: $12.5 million ($446 million)
4. The BFG: $10 million ($79 million) 
5. Independence Day - Resurgence: $5.5 million ($121 million) 
6. The Infiltrator: $5 million 
7. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $4 million ($17 million) 
8. The Purge - Election Year: $3.5 million ($38 million)
9. Central Intelligence: $3 million ($119 million)
10. Free State of Jones: $2.5 million ($49 million) 

7/22-7/24

1. Star Trek Beyond: $58 million 
2. Ghostbusters: $34 million ($136 million) 
3. Ice Age - Collision Course: $31 million 
4. The Secret Lives of Pets: $27 million ($244 million) 
5. Lights Out: $7 million 
6. The BFG: $5.5 million ($90 million) 
7. Finding Dory: $5.5 million ($456 million) 
8. The Infiltrator: $2.5 million ($10 million) 
9. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $2 million ($21 million) 
10. The Purge - Election Year: $1.5 million ($41 million) 

7/29-7/31

1. Jason Bourne: $78 million 
2. Star Trek Beyond: $27 million ($114 million) 
3. Bad Moms: $24 million 
4. Ice Age - Collision Course: $17.5 million ($66 million) 
5. Ghostbusters: $16 million ($167 million) 
6. The Secret Lives of Pets: $14 million ($271 million) 
7. Nerve: $4 million 
8. The BFG: $4 million ($98 million) 
9. Finding Dory: $3.5 million ($463 million) 
10. Lights Out: $3 million ($13 million)

8/5-8/7

1. Suicide Squad: $107 million 
2. Jason Bourne: $35 million ($148 million)
3. Bad Moms: $16.5 million ($57 million) 
4. The Founder: $14 million 
5. Star Trek Beyond: $12.5 million ($139 million)
6. Ice Age - Collision Course: $10 million ($84 million) 
7. The Secret Lives of Pets: $9 million ($287 million) 
8. Ghostbusters: $8 million ($182 million) 
9. Nine Lives: $6 million 
10. The BFG: $3 million ($103 million) 

8/12-8/14

1. Suicide Squad: $48 million ($193 million) 
2. Pete's Dragon: $34 million 
3. Sausage Party: $26 million 
4. Jason Bourne: $18.5 million ($179 million) 
5. Bad Moms: $11 million ($75 million) 
6. Florence Foster Jenkins: $10 million 
7. The Founder: $8 million ($27 million) 
8. Star Trek Beyond: $6.5 million ($150 million) 
9. Ghostbusters: $5 million ($190 million) 
10. Ice Age - Collision Course: $4.5 million ($91 million) 

8/19-8/21

1. Suicide Squad: $27 million ($235 million) 
2. Ben-Hur: $23 million 
3. Pete's Dragon: $20 million ($61 million) 
4. Kubo and the Two Strings: $16.5 million 
5. Sausage Party: $10.5 million ($43 million) 
6. Jason Bourne: $9.5 million ($194 million) 
7. War Dogs: $8 million 
8. Bad Moms: $7 million ($86 million) 
9. Florence Foster Jenkins: $6.5 million ($20 million) 
10. The Founder: $5 million ($35 million) 

8/26-8/28

1. Don't Breathe: $23 million 
2. Suicide Squad: $17 million ($260 million) 
3. Pete's Dragon: $15 million ($81 million) 
4. Kubo and the Two Strings: $11.5 million ($32 million) 
5. Ben-Hur: $10 million ($38 million) 
6. Jason Bourne: $6.5 million ($204 million) 
7. Sausage Party: $6 million ($52 million)
8. Bad Moms: $5 million ($93 million) 
9. War Dogs: $4.5 million ($15 million) 
10. Florence Foster Jenkins: $4 million ($26 million) 

9/2-9/5

1. The Light Between Oceans: $24 million/$32 million 
2. Pete's Dragon: $15.5 million/$22 million ($107 million) 
3. Suicide Squad: $14 million/$18 million ($285 million) 
4. Don't Breathe: $11 million/$13.5 million ($42 million)
5. Kubo and the Two Strings: $10 million/$13.5 million ($49 million)
6. Ben-Hur: $7.5 million/$9.5 mlilion ($51 million)
7. Morgan: $6 million/$7 million 
8. Jason Bourne: $5 million/$6 million ($213 million) 
9. Bad Moms: $4 million/$5 million ($100 million) 
10. Florence Foster Jenkins: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($32 million) 

 

Edited June 20, 2016 by mahnamahna

[Krissykins]

I'm hoping The Shallows does well this weekend.

 

Couldn't give a toss about Independence Day and haven't heard of Free State of Jones (?)

[superweirdo87]

23 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Finding Dory: 70M

Independence Day: 42M

The Shallows: 18M

Central Intelligence: 17M

Free State of Jones: 13M

The Conjuring: 7.7M

Now You See Me: 4.8M

X-Men: 2.6M

TMNT: 2.5M

Warcraft: 2.4M

 

Me Before You?