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Weekend Prediction thread (9/22-9/24) | Play the Derby

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a2knet    12,654
1 hour ago, Hiccup23 said:

Alien: Covenant- $41M

 

Using that OW, 2.4x will give it ~98.5 (PTHEUS was 2.5x).

Probably could get a push to 100 in that case.

If it's 2.35x/~96.5 instead, they might live it alone.

 

Either way, 95-105 seems like a safe bet unless the OW varies much from your projection, which imo is not likely (high-30s/low-40s).

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ZeeSoh    916

Alien - 39

gotg2 - 34.5

everything - 9.5

snatched - 8.8

wimpy kid - 8.5

arthur - 7.5

f8 - 3.3

beauty - 3.2

boss baby - 3.15

latin lover - 2.10

 

 

 

Edited by ZeeSoh

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stripe    1,805
On 2017-5-17 at 1:21 AM, CalifoBoy said:

Could Beauty and the Beast finish with at least $510.0 millions in North America?! Is that too much?!

 

It will depend on how well it drops this weekend, IMO, but there's a chance. In the last month, the drops have been stellar.

 

If it manages to drop less than 30% again, I cannot see it missing 510M

 

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CalifoBoy    42
1 minute ago, stripe said:

 

It will depend on how well it drops this weekend, IMO, but there's a chance. In the last month, the drops have been stellar.

 

If it manages to drop less than 30% again, I cannot see it missing 510M

 

$500 million is totally happening right?! Last weekend it only droped 5% so i have a feeling it could reach $500 million by the end of next week.

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stripe    1,805
17 hours ago, a2knet said:

 

Using that OW, 2.4x will give it ~98.5 (PTHEUS was 2.5x).

Probably could get a push to 100 in that case.

If it's 2.35x/~96.5 instead, they might live it alone.

 

Either way, 95-105 seems like a safe bet unless the OW varies much from your projection, which imo is not likely (high-30s/low-40s).

 

Legs could be slightly better than Prometheus. MD weekend will help.

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$500 million is totally happening right?! Last weekend it only droped 5% so i have a feeling it could reach $500 million by the end of next week.

Unless something terrible of biblical proportion happens, yeah it's gonna make 500M.

Sent from my E6533 using Tapatalk

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stripe    1,805
38 minutes ago, CalifoBoy said:

$500 million is totally happening right?! Last weekend it only droped 5% so i have a feeling it could reach $500 million by the end of next week.

 

500M was already locked last weekend.

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mahnamahna    2,339
Spoiler

5/19-5/21

  1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $38.5 million ($305 million)
  2. Alien - Covenant: $37.5 million
  3. Everything, Everything: $16 million
  4. Snatched: $10 million ($35 million)
  5. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - The Long Haul: $7.5 million
  6. King Arthur - Legend of the Sword: $6.5 million ($27 million)
  7. Beauty & the Beast: $3.5 million ($499 million)
  8. The Boss Baby: $3 million ($166 million)
  9. The Fate of the Furious: $3 million ($219 million)
  10. How to Be a Latin Lover: $2 million ($29 million)

5/26-5/29

  1. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $77.5 million/$95 million
  2. Baywatch: $31 million/$38 million ($47 million)
  3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $26 million/$33 million ($351 million)
  4. Alien - Covenant: $17 million/$21.5 million ($69 million)
  5. Everything, Everything: $10 million/$12 million ($33 million)
  6. Snatched: $6 million/$7.5 million ($45 million)
  7. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - The Long Haul: $6 million/$7.5 million ($17 million)
  8. King Arthur - Legend of the Sword: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($33 million)
  9. Beauty & the Beast: $2.5 million/$3 million ($503 million)
  10. The Boss Baby: $2 million/$2.5 million ($169 million)

6/2-6/4

  1. Wonder Woman: $98 million
  2. Captain Underpants: $34.5 million
  3. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $25 million ($120 million)
  4. Baywatch: $14 million ($67 million)
  5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $11 million ($366 million)
  6. Alien - Covenant: $7.5 million ($80 million)
  7. Everything, Everything: $5 million ($40 million)
  8. Snatched: $3 million ($49 million)
  9. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - The Long Haul: $3 million ($21 million)
  10. King Arthur - Legend of the Sword: $1.5 million ($35 million)

6/9-6/11

  1. The Mummy: $42 million
  2. Wonder Woman: $39 million ($167 million)
  3. Captain Underpants: $20 million ($67 million)
  4. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $14 million ($145 million)
  5. Baywatch: $9 million ($83 million)
  6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $6 million ($377 million)
  7. Alien - Covenant: $4 million ($87 million)
  8. It Comes At Night: $3.5 million
  9. Everything, Everything: $3 million ($45 million)
  10. Snatched: $2 million ($52 million)

6/16-6/18

  1. Cars 3: $74 million
  2. All Eyez on Me: $42.5 million
  3. Wonder Woman: $20 million ($205 million)
  4. The Mummy: $19 million ($78 million)
  5. Rough Night: $12.5 million
  6. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $9 million ($162 million)
  7. Captain Underpants: $8.5 million ($84 million)
  8. Baywatch: $5.5 million ($93 million)
  9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $5 million ($386 million)
  10. Alien - Covenant: $2 million ($91 million)

6/23-6/25

  1. Transformers - The Last Knight: $48 million ($75 million)
  2. Cars 3: $39.5 million ($151 million)
  3. All Eyez on Me: $17 million ($76 million)
  4. Wonder Woman: $11 million ($226 million)
  5. The Mummy: $10 million ($97 million)
  6. Rough Night: $7.5 million ($26 million)
  7. Captain Underpants: $5.5 million ($95 million)
  8. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $5 million ($172 million)
  9. Baywatch: $3.5 million ($100 million)
  10. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $2.5 million ($391 million)

6/30-7/2

  1. Despicable Me 3: $109 million
  2. The House: $35 million
  3. Transformers - The Last Knight: $21 million ($116 million)
  4. Cars 3: $17 million ($185 million)
  5. Baby Driver: $11.5 million ($18 million)
  6. All Eyez on Me: $7.5 million ($91 million)
  7. Wonder Woman: $5.5 million ($237 million)
  8. The Mummy: $5 million ($107 million)
  9. Rough Night: $4 million ($34 million)
  10. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $2.5 million ($177 million)

7/7-7/9

  1. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $127 million
  2. Despicable Me 3: $50.5 million ($210 million)
  3. The House: $20 million ($74 million)
  4. Cars 3: $9.5 million ($203 million)
  5. Transformers - The Last Knight: $7 million ($129 million)
  6. Baby Driver: $6 million ($29 million)
  7. All Eyez on Me: $3 million ($96 million)
  8. Wonder Woman: $2.5 million ($241 million)
  9. Rough Night: $2 million ($38 million)
  10. The Mummy: $1.5 million ($110 million)

7/14-7/16

  1. War for the Planet of the Apes: $79.5 million
  2. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $53 million ($233 million)
  3. Despicable Me 3: $23 million ($255 million)
  4. The House: $12.5 million ($98 million)
  5. Wish Upon: $6.5 million
  6. Cars 3: $6 million ($214 million)
  7. Baby Driver: $3.5 million ($36 million)
  8. Transformers - The Last Knight: $2.5 million ($134 million)
  9. Wonder Woman: $1.5 million ($244 million)
  10. Rough Night: $1 million ($40 million)

7/21-7/23

  1. Dunkirk: $50.5 million
  2. War for the Planet of the Apes: $34 million ($147 million)
  3. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $24 million ($280 million)
  4. Girls Trip: $22.5 million
  5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $15 million
  6. Despicable Me 3: $13 million ($280 million)
  7. The House: $6 million ($110 million)
  8. Cars 3: $4 million ($222 million)
  9. Wish Upon: $2.5 million ($11 million)
  10. Baby Driver: $2 million ($40 million)

7/28-7/30

  1. The Emoji Movie: $44 million
  2. Dunkirk: $33 million ($113 million)
  3. War for the Planet of the Apes: $20.5 million ($186 million)
  4. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $15 million ($310 million)
  5. Girls Trip: $13.5 million ($48 million)
  6. Atomic Blonde: $9 million
  7. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $7 million ($29 million)
  8. An Inconvenient Sequel: $4 million
  9. The House: $3 million ($116 million)
  10. Cars 3: $1.5 million ($225 million)

8/4-8/6

  1. The Dark Tower: $47 million
  2. The Emoji Movie: $27 million ($95 million)
  3. Dunkirk: $21.5 million ($153 million)
  4. Detroit: $13 million
  5. War for the Planet of the Apes: $11 million ($207 million)
  6. Girls Trip: $9 million ($65 million)
  7. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $8.5 million ($327 million)
  8. Atomic Blonde: $4 million ($17 million)
  9. Kidnap: $3.5 million
  10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $3 million ($35 million)

8/11-8/13

  1. Annabelle - Creation: $30.5 million
  2. The Dark Tower: $26 million ($93 million)
  3. The Emoji Movie: $15 million ($119 million)
  4. Dunkirk: $12.5 million ($175 million)
  5. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $11 million
  6. The Glass Castle: $8 million
  7. Girls Trip: $7 million ($77 million)
  8. Detroit: $6 million ($24 million)
  9. War for the Planet of the Apes: $5.5 million ($217 million)
  10. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $4.5 million ($335 million)

8/18-8/20

  1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $22 million
  2. The Dark Tower: $15 million ($116 million)
  3. Annabelle - Creation: $11 million ($49 million)
  4. The Emoji Movie: $10 million ($134 million)
  5. Dunkirk: $9 million ($190 million)
  6. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $6.5 million ($21 million)
  7. The Glass Castle: $5.5 million ($17 million)
  8. Girls Trip: $5 million ($85 million)
  9. War for the Planet of the Apes: $4 million ($223 million)
  10. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $3 million ($340 million)

8/25-8/27

  1. All Saints: $16.5 million
  2. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $13 million ($42 million)
  3. The Dark Tower: $9.5 million ($131 million)
  4. The Emoji Movie: $7 million ($143 million)
  5. Dunkirk: $6 million ($199 million)
  6. Annabelle - Creation: $5 million ($57 million)
  7. Tulip Fever: $4.5 million
  8. The Glass Castle: $4 million ($23 million)
  9. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $4 million ($26 million)
  10. Girls Trip: $3.5 million ($90 million)

9/1-9/4

  1. All Saints: $15 million/$20.5 million ($43 million)
  2. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $9 million/$11 million ($58 million)
  3. Renegades: $8 million/$9.5 million
  4. The Dark Tower: $7.5 million/$9 million ($144 million)
  5. The Emoji Movie: $6.5 million/$8.5 million ($153 million)
  6. Dunkirk: $5 million/$6 million ($207 million)
  7. The Glass Castle: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($29 million)
  8. Leap!: $3 million/$4 million ($6 million)
  9. Girls Trip: $3 million/$3.5 million ($95 million)
  10. Tulip Fever: $2.5 million/$3 million ($8 million)

 

 

Edited by mahnamahna
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a2knet    12,654
2 hours ago, stripe said:

 

Legs could be slightly better than Prometheus. MD weekend will help.

hmm....I can't see better legs than PTHEUS (2.5x). MD weekend will have it's competition and post-MD weekend drop will be harsh too.

IMO good legs would mean around 2.4x, as for this franchise in today's times I can't see better legs than predecessor unless the OW comes surprisingly low it catches some steam due to wom.

But with a healthy 40-45 ow, 2.5x like PTHEUS should be tough despite MD tempering the 2nd weekend drop somewhat.

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lilmac    4,548

ProBoxoffice.com

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
 
Alien: Covenant
 
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul
 
Snatched
 
Everything, Everything
 
King Arthur: Legend of the Sword
 
Beauty and the Beast (2017)
 
The Fate of the Furious
 
The Boss Baby
 
How to be a Latin Lover
2.82

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Blankments    25,752
  1. Alien: Covenant - 44.3M
  2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - 35.2M
  3. Everything, Everything - 17.4M
  4. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul - 14.8M
  5. Snatched - 8.8M
  6. King Arthur: Legend of the Sword - 6.5M
  7. Beauty and the Beast - 3.8M
  8. The Boss Baby - 3.4M
  9. The Fate of the Furious - 3.1M
  10. How to be a Latin Lover - 2.7M
  11. Lowriders - 1.2M
  12. Gifted - 1.1M

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stripe    1,805

That's not the forecast of BO.com

 

They say

GV2 36M / AC 35.9M

They have been consistently lowballing AC. Even Fox is estimating a 40M opening, and we know studios are really cautious with their estimations.

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lilmac    4,548
5 hours ago, stripe said:

That's not the forecast of BO.com

 

They say

GV2 36M / AC 35.9M

They have been consistently lowballing AC. Even Fox is estimating a 40M opening, and we know studios are really cautious with their estimations.

I should have said 'Hey Boxoffice pro..."

 

they read our predictions.  

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CalifoBoy    42

Can anyone tell me if Guardians 2 still has a chance of a total above $400 million domestic?!

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Can anyone tell me if Guardians 2 still has a chance of a total above $400 million domestic?!

Slim to none.

Even 380 is a 50-50 shot. And since its footing is turning out to be exactly that of Civil War from here on out, 360-370 is the most probable range for GOTG2's domestic total.

Sent from my E6533 using Tapatalk

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CalifoBoy    42
58 minutes ago, HenryjRhetorics said:


Slim to none.

Even 380 is a 50-50 shot. And since its footing is turning out to be exactly that of Civil War from here on out, 360-370 is the most probable range for GOTG2's domestic total.

Sent from my E6533 using Tapatalk
 

Thanks!

 

Are there already any projections for Wonder Woman and Pirates 5 opening weekends?!

Edited by CalifoBoy

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TwoMisfits    1,419

So, I'm gonna make predicts for next weekend of all BO through Memorial Day (since Baywatch's weird opening, which my radio is screwing up in ads, is weird...not sure how many people even know it will open early)...so anyway, here are my guesses...(and sadly, even though Baywatch over Pirates was one of my bold calls for 2017, now that the week is here, I'm now doubting myself...maybe in total BO it still has a chance, since Baywatch should have way better legs...yep, that's what I'll tell myself...and if the darn thing pulls out a miracle next weekend, I'll wonder why I ever doubted myself)...

 

Pirates (3 screens at mall / 1 1/2 screens at local - if it gets more screens, I'll update) - 4 day $76M

Baywatch (2 screens at mall / 1 screen at local - if it gets more screens, I'll update) - 5 day $56M

 

Yes, I'm still low on Pirates and high on Baywatch, but not as low or high as I was before:)...maybe I'll change if reviews go bonkers for either...

 

EDIT 5/22/17: Okay, early Pirate reviews are surprisingly NOT good, so I'm gonna drop my Pirates to match those reviews...4 day $65M (now, to wait and see if Baywatch reviews can go up and I can raise that one above Pirates and actually believe it:)...

 

 

 

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Blankments    25,752
On 5/12/2017 at 10:39 PM, Blankments said:

...And I'm home for the summer, so I'll be doing the hometown theaters for a while. Drive-in is Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Beauty and the Beast. 

Mother's Day, How to be a Latin Lover, Born in China, The Dinner, Smurfs: The Lost Village, The Lost City of Z, and Sleight are gone. Drive-in is The Boss Baby and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - 25/8/4 (2D/3D/IMAX 3D) total 37 (down 15)

Alien: Covenant - 26/5 (2D/2D with D-BOX) total 31 (debut)

Snatched - 22 (no change)
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul - 21 (debut)

Everything Everything - 21 (debut)
King Arthur: Legend of the Sword - 12/3 (2D/3D) total 15 (down 4)
The Boss Baby - 13 (down 2)

The Fate of the Furious - 12 (down 1)
Beauty and the Beast - 9 (down 5)

The Circle - 8 (down 6)

Gifted - 8 (down 2)

Going in Style - 5 (down 8)

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