Avengers: Age of Ultron OS Thread | $945.7M OS | $1.405B WW

[Tower]

[Firedeep] Nah, that will bomb, people are tired of superheroes.[/Firedeep]

Firedeep predicted 2B WW in this thread...

[Quigley]

2015 WORLDWIDE GROSSES

2014 was a rather mediocre year. Although overall, business was satisfactory, many individual films failed to meet expectations. There were some surprises, both pleasant and disappointing but no insane outliers (apart from 'Guardians of the Galaxy'). If anything, we learnt not to underestimate Marvel but to expect negative reception to greatly influence well-established franchises (Spider-Man, Transformers, The Hunger Games). That is true only in North America though. I think I must finally note how important China is becoming: this booming market has seen many Hollywood productions gross more than in North America Its exponentially expanding screen capacity means that it is more vital than ever before for a film to succeed in China - look no further than Transformers 4 for proof. That being said, other traditionally strong markets must not be underestimated because China alone is not enough - an obvious example this year is Frozen in Japan.

In 2015, there are many strong franchises and it will almost definitely be the biggest year ever in cinematic history. Let's cut to the point:

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron $1710 million

2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens $1120 million

3. Spectre $1050 million

4. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 $970 million

5. Furious 7 $880 million

6. The Minions $820 million

7. Inside Out $690 million

8. Tomorrowland $680 million

9. Mission Impossible 5 $640 million

10. Ant-Man $635 million

11. The Good Dinosaur $610 million

12. Jurassic World $570 million

The Marvel Cinematic Universe is completely unprecedented, including the success of 'The Avengers'. No one can really tell if that film behaved like a super-sequel or an original film - probably a bit of both, boosted by extremely positive audience reception. It is thus difficult to predict the sequel's gross. I believe the closet comparison we have is 'The Hunger Games'. This built up massive hype prior to release despite not being a sequel and had an enormous opening weekend. Excellent word-of-mouth propelled it to over $40M. Its sequel was even more massive but only slightly more. Many are suggesting that 'The Avengers' also reached saturation levels so I cannot see 'Age of Ultron' earning a lot more. This is the case for North America but outside of it there's a different story. Booming markets including -you guessed it - China will expand greatly so a worldwide total ahead of the first one is guaranteed (NA: $630M, outside: $1080M).

Speaking of cinematic universes, another one is vying for one of the top positions: 'Star Wars'. The hype is immense, as Disney can barely avoid secrets being spoiled and cannot keep up with the leakage of photos/footage (also a problem with 'Age of Ultron'). The prequels were very successful in their corresponding years and overseas expansion since the last one hit theaters ('Revenge of the Sith' in 2005) is definitely going to push 'The Force Awakens' higher than any other chapter. By how much no one can know but anything below $1 billion is already looking like a disappointment (NA: $380M, outside: $740M).

The final film to reach $1 billion is 'Spectre'. After earning $1.1 billion, 'Skyfall' reassured that James Bond films remain extremely popular, even 50 years and 23 films later. 'Spectre' would need to drop 10% from its predecessor to elude the coveted billion-dollar mark which seems unlikely even if the film is not as well received (mainly due to China's expansion). I'll split the distance and predict $1050 million (NA: $275 million, outside: $775 million).

Finally, there is a possibility of a fourth billion-dollar film, which is no other than 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2'. Its predecessor has somewhat disappointed everyone with its recession in North America and stagnant overseas grosses. However, any finale released in the past years, whether it's 'Harry Potter', 'Twilight' or 'The Dark Knight', has shown huge worldwide growth even if there was a decrease in North American returns. It is imperceivable for 'Mockingjay - Part 2' to drop further from its predecessor in North America, so only growth is considered as a possibility. However, $1 billion lamentably seems a bit too far away and without 3-D a movie can only go so far these days - exceptions not withstanding - especially in markets such as Brazil, China and South Korea. It will come frighteningly close though (NA: $420M, outside: $550M).

Rounding out the top 5 is 'Furious 7'. The franchise has only been rising in the past years and the death of Paul Walker has, if anything, increased its popularity. 'Furious 7' also appears to be the final film of the series (although I struggle to believe that), a fact that will add even more to the film's event status. Effectively, what we will see is another healthy increase in worldwide returns, especially due the lack of competition around the time of the movie's release, early April (NA: $260M, outside: $620M).

Animated films were absent from the top rankings last year but this year this is bound to change. Moving into the lower five, an animated film finally appears. 'The Minions' are a spin-off prequel to 'Despicable Me'. The franchise became immensely popular in summer 2013 with the release of the sequel which barely missed $1 billion. Not many animated spin-off prequels exist, but two that come to mind are 'Puss in Boots' and 'Penguins of Madagascar'. Both of them fell by a substantial percentage from the other films of the franchise. But that was mainly due to franchise fatigue and mediocre reception. 'Minions' comes off a highly successful mass-pleasing sequel and minions were admittedly its major selling point. Expect this one to drop from 'Despicable Me2', especially in North America and probably other English-speaking countries but not by much (NA: $290M, outside: $530M).

Not very far behind, Pixar is returning this year with 'Inside Out'. The Pixar brand has been challenged somewhat in the past years but it is still highly successful commercially. Disney will obviously market this film heavily since last summer was the first in nine years without a Pixar film. Overseas though, as an original film, this could go either way: join Finding Nemo and Up in the higher ranks or stay with Wall-E and Brave lower down. Its interesting premise will hopefully favor the prior (NA: $280M, outside: $410M).

Another Disney film, the fourth down the list, will be eighth this year: 'Tomorrowland: The World Beyond'. This is a live-action film directed by Brad Bird. From 'The Iron Giant' to 'The Incredibles' and 'Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol', Brad Bird has made impressive films, story-wise and action-wise, and this will probably not disappoint either. Prepare for a Mission Impossible 4-like gross since it is an original film, unlike 'Ghost Protocol', but has 3-D and a Memorial-Day weekend release date to compensate (NA: $220M, outside: $460M).

Similarly to 'Inside Out', 'A Good Dinosaur' will definitely do well in North America but, as an original film, its overseas prospects are largely unpredictable (NA: $250M, outside: $360M).

'Mission Impossible 5' is coming off a very successful predecessor but, being released a week after 'The Force Awakens', this film isn't really in the most favorable position. In any case, franchise fatigue and Brad Bird not returning to direct further decrease the event status of this film so don't expect it to match 'Ghost Protocol' although China will definitely increase from the prior (NA: $165M, outside: $475M).

Finally, Ant-Man has a chance of breaking the Top 10. Despite a troubled production, this is Marvel we're talking about and the lesson from pretty much every single year since 2011 is to not underestimate this studio. Nevertheless it will be released in mid-July, amidst a more crowded market than either 'Captain America: The Winter Soldier' or 'Guardians of the Galaxy'. This will inevitably have a slight inhibitory effect. Expect at least $500M worldwide and probably a lot more (NA: $225M, $410M).

In a final analysis of an individual film, 'Jurassic World' definitely has a fanbase eager to watch this long-awaited unnecessary sequel. I question though whether enough hype will be built up to promote this film to event status similarly to 'The Force Awakens'. The trailer resembles 'Godzilla' in a way that could have a negative impact on general interest, especially since the latter was very badly received. On the other hand, the Chinese don't seem to care so much about quality, so overseas grosses will guarantee this isn't deemed a flop (NA: $180M, outside: $390M).

Also hoping for a Top 20 and maybe even Top 10 finish are two female-fueled films, two fanboy films, three that appeal to both - including a comedy-, and another animated film:

Cinderella ($450M+)

Ted 2 ($430M+)

Fifty Shades of Grey ($380M+)

Fantastic Four ($370M+)

Hotel Transylvania 2 ($350M+)

Maze Runner 2 ($340M+)

Insurgent ($320M+)

Terminator ($300M+)

[Asyulus]

1.2B OS

[Hernan Gonzalez]

New trailer!!!

 

[Lordmandeep]

1 billion overseas is happening. 

[Hernan Gonzalez]

1 billion overseas is happening.

Totally! Even with this horrible exchange rate

[Fullbuster]

I'm a bit worried :

 

-The Rouble is very weak and the Russian economy is sinking so huge numbers in Russia are out of the question. It was one of its most promising markets in terms of growth in comparison with The Avengers.

 

-The Euro is much weaker than in 2012 and is losing strength everyday passing because of the weak euro area economy, the new QE program from the ECB and the strength of the US economy, meaning it will further weaken in the next few months. The European market is very important and it had some room to grow over TA1 but now that won't be easy.

 

Most of Latin American currencies lost strength against the Dollar and these economies weakened, so it will suffer from a real disadvantage over TA1, this region is essential for TA2 in terms of growth so even a stagnation could be quite a prowess.

 

I expected TA2 to pass $2B WW but now that seems unlikely. It will have to rely on the US, China and Southeast Asia to offset the weakening of these 3 regions.

[peludo]

I'm a bit worried :

 

-The Rouble is very weak and the Russian economy is sinking so huge numbers in Russia are out of the question. It was one of its most promising markets in terms of growth in comparison with The Avengers.

 

-The Euro is much weaker than in 2012 and is losing strength everyday passing because of the weak euro area economy, the new QE program from the ECB and the strength of the US economy, meaning it will further weaken in the next few months. The European market is very important and it had some room to grow over TA1 but now that won't be easy.

 

Most of Latin American currencies lost strength against the Dollar and these economies weakened, so it will suffer from a real disadvantage over TA1, this region is essential for TA2 in terms of growth so even a stagnation could be quite a prowess.

 

I expected TA2 to pass $2B WW but now that seems unlikely. It will have to rely on the US, China and Southeast Asia to offset the weakening of these 3 regions.

You are right. I had this doing 1.2 billion OS. Now, I think it will make "just" about 1.05-1.1 billion.

[Asyulus]

Updated my prediction: Now 1.08B OS

[Fullbuster]

You are right. I had this doing 1.2 billion OS. Now, I think it will make "just" about 1.05-1.1 billion.

 

It would be huge already.

[Leyla]

1 bil will be a significant WW milestone again in the coming year thats all

but AOU will surely pass this just b/c it wiill have 600+ DOM

Edited January 24, 2015 by Lady of Lorien

[Asyulus]

$1,084,309,099.4252543 OS

[Ithil]

Has any film done 1 billion OS before?

EDIT: Stupid question, no doubt Avatar did. Alright, any OTHER than Avatar?

Edited March 6, 2015 by Ithil

[mmacader]

Has any film done 1 billion OS before?

EDIT: Stupid question, no doubt Avatar did. Alright, any OTHER than Avatar?

First one to reach 1B OS was Titanic. 1.25B OS total in its first run.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/

Edited March 6, 2015 by Alucard

[peludo]

Just Avatar and Titanic did it. Another question is if we adjust for inflation...

[Noctis]

DH2 was so fucking close....

[peludo]

DH2 was so fucking close....

But you know that biggest Potter movie was HP1... by far

[BadAtGender]

Just Avatar and Titanic did it. Another question is if we adjust for inflation...

 

You can't adjust OS numbers as a whole for inflation. Currency fluctuation adds too many variables.

[peludo]

You can't adjust OS numbers as a whole for inflation. Currency fluctuation adds too many variables.

I know it. I mean that if we adjust OS numbers taking into account the inflation of each country and the exchange rate fluctuation of each currency, something that would be very hard, we would obtain that some past movies would have done over 1 billion OS today. Edited March 7, 2015 by peludo

[Quigley]

Euro continues to drop. Now at 1.08 dollars. It'll be tough for Avengers, since the exchage rate in May 2012 was 1.30-1.25 dollars. I still think it can reach $1 billion but won't get much farther than that.