TStechnij Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 If 6-10 have 5% or more of first place votes they're in. Exactly what I thought. This is why I think Carol, Brooklyn and The Danish Girl all have good-great chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I'm thinking this: Locks: The Revenant Joy Spotlight Carol Almost locks: Steve Jobs Inside Out Likely: The Hateful Eight Brooklyn Will show up despite a contingent hope not to: The Danish Girl So, I am think 8 or 9. But the last five are all quite susceptible. Outside looking in, somewhat in order: Room Beasts of No Nation Son of Saul Mad Max: Fury Road Bridge of Spies Youth Bridge of Spies Star Wars: The Force Awakens The Martian By the Sea (Weird gut feeling.) Agree with practically everything, but I would say Room and Youth are more likely at this moment than Hateful eight, which is unseen. This is an extremely interesting year with strong films fighting for a nom 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I would love to see Steve Jobs and Danish girl failing to be BP contenders Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Exactly what I thought. This is why I think Carol, Brooklyn and The Danish Girl all have good-great chances. The problem with Carol / Brooklyn / Danish girl is that all three films target the same type of voters. It really might hurt the weakest of them (Danish girl). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Agree with practically everything, but I would say Room and Youth are more likely at this moment than Hateful eight, which is unseen. This is an extremely interesting year with strong films fighting for a nom Unseen doesn't mean it isn't safe. I have it pretty low down for a reason. It is still in danger, but less so than Brooklyn. Besides, it screened and I've heard some raves. Youth has no buzz. I'm shocked how little Caine is being talked about and how much Fonda is. It kind of speaks for itself when people think Fonda is going to be the sole nom. Now with Joy contending with multiple ladies, I think Youth's chances are next to none unless it builds up record hype at AFI or gets a big push. And Hooper campaigns hard and has a big group of fans in the Academy. It is still very possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I think Spotlight is still the favorite. Buzzy hit on the festival circuit, a safe and traditional movie that talks about a big enough topic to still be "edgy," relevant and thought-provoking subject matter, starry ensemble, well-received trailers that have led to pretty good box office potential (I think it'll be a hit), and it's a movie about smart, competent people doing their jobs really well, which the Academy loves. Also, a journalism procedural is "different" enough to warrant attention while still safe enough not to scare off anyone with more sensitive sensibilities. It's no lock by any means, and there's still alot to go, but if I was putting my money down today, I say it has all the traits of a BP winner. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I think Spotlight is still the favorite. Buzzy hit on the festival circuit, a safe and traditional movie that talks about a big enough topic to still be "edgy," relevant and thought-provoking subject matter, starry ensemble, well-received trailers that have led to pretty good box office potential (I think it'll be a hit), and it's a movie about smart, competent people doing their jobs really well, which the Academy loves. Also, a journalism procedural is "different" enough to warrant attention while still safe enough not to scare off anyone with more sensitive sensibilities. It's no lock by any means, and there's still alot to go, but if I was putting my money down today, I say it has all the traits of a BP winner. I've seen it. The closest thing to compare it to is Argo which was far better received. There is no way it has the momentum to win this. It will probably win NBR and that is it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Momentum can be built. There's a ton of time left. Good to know I'm not the only one who thinks Fury Road has a decent chance to get in. I'm pretty sure it's gonna have a lot of passion behind it, even if from fewer people. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Momentum can be built. There's a ton of time left. Good to know I'm not the only one who thinks Fury Road has a decent chance to get in. I'm pretty sure it's gonna have a lot of passion behind it, even if from fewer people. Sure it can, but usually these festival films need to hold on to it all year. This doesn't even account for the fact that I have a ton of reservations thinking anyone would consider Spotlight the best movie of the year. I don't think if has the narrative or is high enough quality to win BP tbh. It was spoken about because it was the best film at the time, but that won't even be the case. Plus it is Open Road Film. Can they produce a winning campaign? Can they get the necessary campaign to win BP? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 This doesn't even account for the fact that I have a ton of reservations thinking anyone would consider Spotlight the best movie of the year. So you basically admit you have a blind spot since the idea that someone would think Spotlight is the best is unfathomable to you. I expect some exasperated disbelief once end of year lists come out from critics, groups, even members here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 So you basically admit you have a blind spot since the idea that someone would think Spotlight is the best is unfathomable to you. I expect some exasperated disbelief once end of year lists come out from critics, groups, even members here. It is a blind spot, I'll admit it. I could definitely see a case where it could be considered the best movie so far (of the Oscar bait, American prestige pictures) and I know it will get first place votes. But like I said, it doesn't have too stiff of competition: Steve Jobs, Inside Out, Mad Max, Carol and Brooklyn. With a DOR, QT and a really hyped Innaritu are still to come it seems very unsafe. I meant to mention that NBR are totally going to give Spotlight a lot of awards. I could also see it doing well with DFW and Denver too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 Unseen doesn't mean it isn't safe. I have it pretty low down for a reason. It is still in danger, but less so than Brooklyn. Besides, it screened and I've heard some raves. Youth has no buzz. I'm shocked how little Caine is being talked about and how much Fonda is. It kind of speaks for itself when people think Fonda is going to be the sole nom. Now with Joy contending with multiple ladies, I think Youth's chances are next to none unless it builds up record hype at AFI or gets a big push. And Hooper campaigns hard and has a big group of fans in the Academy. It is still very possible. Didn't know there was some raves about Hateful. According to theme and tone, it really doesn't look like something the Academy would be crazy about, even more when they have a lot of prestige movies that are strong enough to fight for a BP nomination. I have to agree there are a lot of Tarantino fans, but so does Spielberg and BoS is already receiving strong reviews with a theme Academy loves. ONTOH, this year is so strong and has so many quality female dramas that I have doubts there's room for Danish girl. It could be seen as an actor/actress movie and nothing more. Carol is classy and better received, and also has a well respected director. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 If Danish Girl got in, it would just be a sympathy nod or even done out of fear of being labeled jaded or insensitive towards transgenders or some shit. Reviews just simply aren't good enough for it otherwise. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 (edited) top 3 will be revenant joy spotlight and then the rest of the "field". rest of field will be just filler stock to the big 3 above. Edited October 11, 2015 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Me thinks: Bridge of Spies Brooklyn Carol The Danish Girl Joy Mad Max: Fury Road The Revenant Spotlight Steve Jobs -------------------------------- The Hateful Eight Room Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Me thinks: Bridge of Spies Brooklyn Carol The Danish Girl Joy Mad Max: Fury Road The Revenant Spotlight Steve Jobs -------------------------------- The Hateful Eight Room Yeah. I like this line-up a lot. It just needs Inside Out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Yeah. I like this line-up a lot. It just needs Inside Out! Cartoons go in the animated category, no? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TStechnij Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 Cartoons go in the animated category, no? They can get BP noms too. A few have in the expanded category. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halba Posted October 11, 2015 Share Posted October 11, 2015 (edited) mine updated in order of rank only revenant unseen. rest are all seen e.g. joy had incredible reception in test screenings, as did hateful eight recently. 1. the revenant (only one unseen) 2. joy 3. spotlight 4. carol 5. brooklyn 6. inside out 7. bridge of spies 8. the hateful eight 9. son of saul 10. beasts of no nation alts - room Edited October 11, 2015 by Halba Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travod Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I want the Mad Max nomination so effing much https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WuxMCnhzB20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
