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2015 Best Picture predictions!

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Carol probably will a be a pure Todd Haynes movie that happened to have a more commercial premise than his other movies hence the oscar talk, wide-release, Harvey Weinstein etc.That doesn't mean it's oscar bait. It's like PTA and There Will Be Blood

Edited by Joel M
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Idk, the whole "Falling for another they aren't allowed to love" concept seems cliche. Then again, I haven't ever seen a Todd Haynes movie so maybe I shouldn't judge a book by its cover.

The Danish Girl's trailer however was so hamfisted with cliches I wanted to gag.

I may have judged to early on Carol though, I'll apologize for that.

Oscar Bait films are really no better than a cliche blockbuster, they just get votes for being "culturally relevant".

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Carol, Danish Girl, and Brooklyn all look like the blatant cliche'd Oscar bait of the season.

There are likely a few others too, they're just the ones that stuck out.

 

None of them look that impressive to me, Brooklyn looks like some period romance, probably the one I'm most interested in, but least likely to get a nomination imo. and Carol Danish Girl look like they're waving a flag saying "nominate me! because I deal with issues the academy loves!" 

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I will repeat: The Academy doesn't love LGBT films. I mean, Brokeback Mountain was even snubbed.

Oscar nominated films with LGBT themes over the last time 10 years

Films with LGBT issues as A Core Theme

The Imitation Game (2014)

Dallas Buyers Club (2013)

The Kids Are Alright (2010)

A Single Man (2009) (Best Actor nom)

Milk (2008)

Transamerica (2005) (Huffman nominee)

Brokeback Mountain (2005)

Films Which Featured an LGBT Theme

Birdman (the random lesbian scene) (2014)

Black Swan (2010)

Capote (2005)

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What a disaster. The pundits this year are a total mess and the Carol oversight is ridiculous!

 

Most of them were pretty bad last year too. Despite mixed reviews a lot still had Unbroken in for Best Picture (denying that they screwed up by calling it a frontrunner?), overestimating Selma and underestimating Sniper.

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