Spider-Man: Into The Spider-verse | 12.14.2018 | Sony | Phil Lord and Chris Miller

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, Rumpot said:

Oh yes it sure as hell will.  And the reason why is in your post about why it won't

Maybe you could spell out why for me instead of just adding nothing to the conversation.  

[Valonqar]

I don't think that LEGO Batman is a good comparison. This is Spiderman, not LEGO Spiderman.  300M OS is entirely doable. No, Europe won't watch only MPR and Asia won't watch only Aquaman, not to mention that Spiderverse OS roll out is trying to skip direct competition with those movies in some markets.  

[lorddemaxus]

20 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I don't think that LEGO Batman is a good comparison. This is Spiderman, not LEGO Spiderman.  300M OS is entirely doable. No, Europe won't watch only MPR and Asia won't watch only Aquaman, not to mention that Spiderverse OS roll out is trying to skip direct competition with those movies in some markets.  

 

That argument makes no sense at all. Lego Batman was two brands combined together. It should theoretically perform better than just an animated Batman movie. Also, this isn't Spiderman, it is an animated Spiderman and it isn't even Peter Parker. I am just saying, you guys are overpredicting this movie just like you did with Lego Batman. Neither market will just watch those movies I mentioned earlier, but competition is competition. 

 

Lego Batman is literally the only movie that Spiderman Into the Spiverse can be compared to also. Theatrically released animated movies based on superheroes are very rare. If the animation style does fail to appeal with US audiences though, there is no way the film will do good overseas because the animation style is extremely niche.

 

I just find it unlikely for Spiderman Into the Spiderverse to do something that pretty much no "not traditional CGI animated movie" has ever done since The Lion King (which is to cross 500 mil worldwide and only Tarzan has come close since TLK with 448 mil). Again, I am only parroting this because that is what the stats tell me.

Edited December 2, 2018 by lorddemaxus

[Valonqar]

Yes it's animated Spiderman so no one is predicting 800M. What's the problem? Also, Parker or Morales, doesn't really matter. People like Spiderman. they are not attached to particular actor and quite possibly to particular character either. Both are teenagers who don Spiderman costume, make funny quips and don't kill people. So that's Spiderman. whether his name is Peter or Miles, shrug. Not to mention this is the first movie with Miles so my theory that it doesn't matter is as good as yours that it does. we don't know cause there's no precedent. we'll find out soon. Same goes for innovative animation that in no way resembles super kiddie-oriented Lego one. 

[lorddemaxus]

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 Same goes for innovative animation that in no way resembles super kiddie-oriented Lego one. 

Animation is kiddie for the GA regardless of how it looks. That is why adult-oriented animation doesn't exist outside of television and VOD. You really think men in their 20s and above are the target audience? No, families are always the biggest demographic for an animated film. Without families, no animated movie would make nearly as much money as it does, including this film.

 

Also, the film's animation isn't innovative. Beautiful? yes. Unique? Yes. But nothing technically innovative about it. But like I said, what you are talking about is doing something a film like this has never done in the past 20 years or so. Keeping expectations low is something important and 300 WW is imo is a really high estimate to be a minimum. People kept their expectations high for Lego Batman and we saw what happened.

 

Quote

 so my theory that it doesn't matter is as good as yours that it does. we don't know cause there's no precedent. we'll find out soon. 

Yes, we will find out soon but I don't know how literal stats don't make up a good argument. Isn't that how box office is predicted? Facts and comparisons. I offered both but I guess that is not good enough.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Here’s an important to keep in mind when it comes to big superhero-films or big films in general:

 

Just because they’re animated films, doesn’t mean they’ll always do worse (and i mean much worse) than a live action film. Either it’s an original feature or something based on another work.

 

Same thing with Spiderman. Fools assume   that Spiderverse will do only just $200-300M+ WW because it’s an animated film and not live action like all the past films (including the ”already a large blockbuster” Venom?)

[Spidey Freak]

There is no precedent for this (Lego Batman is not really it), so please stop with the purely speculative walls of text.

 

 

 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

2 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

There is no precedent for this (Lego Batman is not really it), so please stop with the purely speculative walls of text.

 

 

 

It’s definitely lorddemaxus’s problem for not having faith with an animated film.

Edited December 2, 2018 by MrFanaticGuy34

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Here’s an important to keep in mind when it comes to big superhero-films or big films in general:

 

Just because they’re animated films, doesn’t mean they’ll always do worse (and i mean much worse) than a live action film. Either it’s an original feature or something based on another work.

 

Same thing with Spiderman. Fools assume   that Spiderverse will do only just $200-300M+ WW because it’s an animated film and not live action like all the past films (including the ”already a large blockbuster” Venom?)

Exactly. It seems to me that some posters here have an axe to grind against this movie (Isn't Disney/MCU?) so they are looking for any "stats" that feed that narrative. 

[Premium George]

He is just predicting, and using a movie that he thinks is the best comp. Stop calling him fool or hater. 

I do think that one big difference b/w lego bm and this is the critics reception.

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

It’s definitely lorddemaxus’s problem for not having faith with an animated film.

No, I think Frozen 2 will easily make over 1.5 billion. Toy Story 4 will make one billion. Secret Life of Pets 2 is also a potential billion dollar movie. HTTYD 3 will also make more than 700 mil. Just think niche animated films won't make a lot of money because they haven't in the past 20 or so years (considering that 2d animation is now considered niche, not since The Lion King). 

8 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

There is no precedent for this (Lego Batman is not really it), so please stop with the purely speculative walls of text.

 

 

 

Box office is speculation though (Unless you get actual numbers from insiders and none of the insiders here have given any numbers). You can never 100% accurately predict a film's performance. There is no proper precedent for how any film should perform because people don't act rationally and don't choose what movie to choose logically. What you can do is try to find odds and that is why I have done using stats and comparisons. If you want to give a counter argument, fine but don't dismiss my argument because it is completely valid.

[Spidey Freak]

1 minute ago, Premium George said:

I do think that one big difference b/w lego bm and this is the critics reception.

...what about the fact that it doesn't star Lego pieces? 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Exactly. It seems to me that some posters here have an axe to grind against this movie (Isn't Disney/MCU?) so they are looking for any "stats" that feed that narrative. 

Very true. We have to keep in mind that 3 animated were the biggest of their respective summers DOM-wise between May-August, and they were all Pixar-sequels.

 

TS3 in 2010, Finding Dory in 2016 and Incredibles 2 this year. They had massive family-appeal and very high critical RT-ratings. They beat out the live action blockbusters in their years.

 

Heck, even an older animated film like ”The Lion King” was the biggest film WW-wise, of 1994.

[YM!]

Can’t we just have a nice Spider Verse thread?

[Premium George]

Just now, Spidey Freak said:

...what about the fact that it doesn't star Lego pieces? 

There are some many big difference. First unlike LBM, this is very close to live action spidey. First lego movie was also less than average OS. By that point batman brand took a big hit, while spidey brand is back on good terms. 

Still when a animated movie already have a live action counterpart, it is difficult to match a original animated property. Only reason I am banking on this to do $500m WW is word of mouth.

 

[Premium George]

5 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Very true. We have to keep in mind that 3 animated were the biggest of their respective summers DOM-wise between May-August, and they were all Pixar-sequels.

 

TS3 in 2010, Finding Dory in 2016 and Incredibles 2 this year. They had massive family-appeal and very high critical RT-ratings. They beat out the live action blockbusters in their years.

 

Heck, even an older animated film like ”The Lion King” was the biggest film WW-wise, of 1994.

None of them are comparable. Animation is big, has been since 100 years. Point is animated film of a property that already has a live action movie.

[lorddemaxus]

21 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Exactly. It seems to me that some posters here have an axe to grind against this movie (Isn't Disney/MCU?) so they are looking for any "stats" that feed that narrative. 

I am the last person to have something against this film. Phil Lord (and Chris Miller) is one of my favourite writers (and directors) of this decade and the last thing I want is a film he was involved in to perform badly, and I never said the film will perform badly. Just under you guys say. The movie also looks better than any superhero movie I have seen in a long time.

 

Also, what I said is a fact regardless of how you want to mock it. This is a box office forum, you don't just use your instincts to predict how a movie performs.

[That One Girl]

10 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

you don't just use your instincts to predict how a movie performs.

 

Alternatively, you can predict Black Panther making 200M OW or IT being a massive breakout hit and get those right because you used your instincts.

Edited December 2, 2018 by That One Guy

[filmlover]

22 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Can’t we just have a nice Spider Verse thread?

It’s a funny book movie thread so by default that means no.

[Rumpot]

3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Maybe you could spell out why for me instead of just adding nothing to the conversation.  

Sure. It's a well reviewed Spider-Man movie.  Thats it. 

 

One can get into all sorts of complex analysis on this and I'm not saying that's not a worthwhile exercise if it's enjoyable, but the complexity of the argument has absolutely no correlation with how correct it is (or how likely it is to be).  

 

I'm fine with different opinions, but I always call out when someone says they are "sure" of an outcome.  I guess it's just phrasing.  Obviously you don't have to cater to me...and why would you, but just reacting to one of my pet peeves.  Nothing more than that