Neo Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 so no 100M$ OD , too bad would have made for great ad pitch on tv , "go quick to see the first 100M$ OD movie of all time the movie that beat DHII OD. oh well lets hope its still beats the OD record though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 I agree that TA1 will probably still keep the record. $200m is still in play though. Just needs an awesome Saturday and excellent Sunday hold (closer to TA1's 18% drop than IM3's 30% drop). Previews - $27.6m Friday - $57.4m Saturday - $63.14m (+10%) Sunday - $49.25m (-22%) That would give it a weekend total of $197.39m, which is firmly in Puerto Rico territory. If the movie can jump 10% today from Friday business, Disney would be well within their rights to report $200m Sunday morning and fudge if necessary given everything Paramount has done in recent years. IMO, 10% is the absolute max it can hope to achieve. I'm sensing a flat number from Friday. Around $58m wouldn't surprise me in the least. OMG, Neo quoting old posts that had AoU beating DH2 is the most glorious meltdown so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 I agree that TA1 will probably still keep the record. $200m is still in play though. Just needs an awesome Saturday and excellent Sunday hold (closer to TA1's 18% drop than IM3's 30% drop). Previews - $27.6m Friday - $57.4m Saturday - $63.14m (+10%) Sunday - $49.25m (-22%) That would give it a weekend total of $197.39m, which is firmly in Puerto Rico territory. If the movie can jump 10% today from Friday business, Disney would be well within their rights to report $200m Sunday morning and fudge if necessary given everything Paramount has done in recent years. I think we're at that point in the cycle where everybody's at a low. I do think Saturday and Sunday holds are going to be a bit better than expected and it does have slightly better legs than one might expect. Will be interested to see if this can power past TDK or not. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 MrPink, can you please make a gif (a longer one that isn't online yet) of Harry and Hermione dancing? Oh, please, please, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 IMO, 10% is the absolute max it can hope to achieve. I'm sensing a flat number from Friday. Around $58m wouldn't surprise me in the least. Yeah, it's definitely showing more signs of frontloading for the weekend than either TA1 or IM3. And the boxing match will have at least some kind of effect. Even $2m lost to that would hurt the daily percentage increase by quite a bit. I'm thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of a 5% jump today and 25% drop tomorrow. That would give it a $190m weekend and I don't think Disney would try to fudge that point. Still an awesome number in the grand scheme of things and should really put into perspective how incredible TA1's performance was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 No.. This is 2012 all over again making the same mistakes and jumping the gun.. Saturday hasn't even begun yet much less sunday, so how about let's wait til at least mid afternoon.. Way to early.. Would you being saying this is 115M OD was reported? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 MrPink, can you please make a gif (a longer one that isn't online yet) of Harry and Hermione dancing? Oh, please, please, please! Let me find a good quality clip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Yeah, it's definitely showing more signs of frontloading for the weekend than either TA1 or IM3. And the boxing match will have at least some kind of effect. Even $2m lost to that would hurt the daily percentage increase by quite a bit. I'm thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of a 5% jump today and 25% drop tomorrow. That would give it a $190m weekend and I don't think Disney would try to fudge that point. Still an awesome number in the grand scheme of things and should really put into perspective how incredible TA1's performance was. I'm just glad TA2 is gonna drop so much from TA1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 I still say Deadline is going to have egg on their face all over again and that's where Nikki worked, wasn't it??? This is making close to 100M OD and why it is people keep making excuses for it is unreal.. First Nikki is no longer at DHD and 2ndly DHD is an actual source vs a fanboy's prediction who is better suited to give numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yandereprime101189 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 (edited) I'm just glad TA2 is gonna drop so much from TA1. I actually wanna know why exactly you're so glad? Edited May 2, 2015 by Yandereprime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Empire Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 85M is a great # & nobody should be disappointed by it. This still has a chance at 200M OW & at minimum it will still be the 2nd highest OW of all-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceroll Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Would you being saying this is 115M OD was reported? No. Neo talking some sense about TA2 overpredictions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 By 5PM today, when I wake up, it will be confirmed that this made 100M OD.. You watch... Seeing as actual "confirmed" won't be out til Monday then no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Even with the fight and derby, I doubt AOU will stay flat. After all its still early May. IM3 increased more than Avengers minus previews. Similar increase would put AOU at 68m saturday. Let us reduce like 5m for fight( I am sensing in big cities people would either see the fight at home or go to a pub). Still it will be at 63m saturday and sunday drop will be softer at around 55m. So even with 85m friday it will gross > 200m for its OW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Ouch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 I am here for the boxing match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpiderByte Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 (edited) People who blame the boxing match seem to think doing two things in one day isn't possible Edited May 2, 2015 by SpiderByte 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ent Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Is that $85M the official OD number ? If not, when can we expect the official OD number to drop ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Soooo, when will we get OFFICIAL & CONFIRMED firady numbers? Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Even with the fight and derby, I doubt AOU will stay flat. After all its still early May. IM3 increased more than Avengers minus previews. Similar increase would put AOU at 68m saturday. Let us reduce like 5m for fight( I am sensing in big cities people would either see the fight at home or go to a pub). Still it will be at 63m saturday and sunday drop will be softer at around 55m. So even with 85m friday it will gross > 200m for its OW. Given the fact its opening day was more frontloaded than either TA1 or IM3, why in the world would you even start with the high end for Saturday's increase? IMHO you start with TA1's 12% Saturday increase and then deduct from there for the boxing match. I don't think the fight will cost it $5m though. That seems steep. Maybe $3m at most. But that is still a big chunk of the daily jump. The difference between a 5% jump and 10% jump is right at $3m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
