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Dementeleus

AVENGERS Official Wknd Estimates: 191M - Disney

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Alll right, official number is in

 

$84,460,000

$56,860,000 Friday

 

With this:

$51,000,000 Saturday

$43,250,000 Sunday

 

$178,710,000 weekend. Number #2 of all time.

 

From $230 million to $178.7 million. I need Sunday to help me get closer.

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Taking out midnights/previews:

TA1 - $188.7m

TA2 - $160.1m

IM3 - $158.5m

If it continues running 1% ahead of IM3 for the rest of its run, it will not reach $425m. I think $500m is very unlikely and I'll be pretty happy if it can go past $450m at this point.

What IM3 dealt with its first month:

Furious 6 - $240 million

Star Trek 2 - $230 million 

The Great Gatsby - $145 million 

Now You See Me - $120 million 

The Hangover III - $110 million 

Epic - $105 million 

After Earth - $60 million 

 

What Avengers 1 had to deal with in its first month: 

MIB 3 - $180 million 

Snow White and the Huntsman - $155 million 

Dark Shadows - $80 million

Battleship - $65 million 

The Dictator - $60 million 

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - $45 million 

What to Expect When You're Expecting - $40 million 

 

What Avengers 2 has to deal with in its first month (likely scenario):

Hot Pursuit - $45 million 

Mad Max - $125 million 

Pitch Perfect 2 - $160 million 

Tomorrowland - $135 million 

San Andreas - $75 million

Poltergeist - $60 million 

Aloha - $40 million 

 

Iron Man 3 had a ridiculous amount of competition its first month, compared to both Avengers films. Why would Avengers 2 hold exactly the same when it has almost no competition this month except Tomorrowland and slightly San Andreas? 

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You cant just change your predicts after numbers come out and beg for credit. Some people were calling sub-200 back on Tuesday. They deserve credit. Youre calling after the Friday number. So, you dont.

I'm not asking for credit. Never have, never will.

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I wonder if there has actually been anyone who has paid to see The Avengers solely because RDJ is in it.

At this point RDJ IS Iron man. They are one and the same. I'm not sure even his wife can tell the difference between the two. :ph34r:

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I think there's a chance it hits 190 and the attitude on this board turns around considerably. I think Sunday is being underestimated. I think the fight, in combination with game 7 AND the Derby, hurt me than people think. CNN's front page yesterday said "Sporturday!" for God's sake, and that's at a time where shit is actually happening in the world. Every sports fan had been hyping this up to be the greatest single sports day in a LONG time- and with sports being such a major part of Americans identity (no matter how much this board pretends they don't matter sometimes), that's huge. People will stay home for the king of all sports days. And looking at social media metrics, crowd reports, and preliminary buys/revenue info, turns out the fight was even bigger than I kept arguing it would be. So yea, Sunday is going to bounce back big.

Or maybe people will be burned out and just stay at home.

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It amazes me how you guys never learn. It WAS unrealistic to think this would surpass the first on OW. Typically franchises (we'll call the Avengers its own franchise for argument's sake) don't hit their ceiling with the first movie, but The Avengers did. 

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Uh oh. As a disney nerd, it breaks my heart to see them have a year not yet living up to expectations, with Cinderella having a brutal time passing 200M and Age of Ultron now. Yeah Ultron is doing great but everyone set a bar too high for it.

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What IM3 dealt with its first month:

Furious 6 - $240 million

Star Trek 2 - $230 million 

The Great Gatsby - $145 million 

Now You See Me - $120 million 

The Hangover III - $110 million 

Epic - $105 million 

After Earth - $60 million 

 

What Avengers 1 had to deal with in its first month: 

MIB 3 - $180 million 

Snow White and the Huntsman - $155 million 

Dark Shadows - $80 million

Battleship - $65 million 

The Dictator - $60 million 

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel - $45 million 

What to Expect When You're Expecting - $40 million 

 

What Avengers 2 has to deal with in its first month (likely scenario):

Hot Pursuit - $45 million 

Mad Max - $125 million 

Pitch Perfect 2 - $160 million 

Tomorrowland - $135 million 

San Andreas - $75 million

Poltergeist - $60 million 

Aloha - $40 million 

 

Iron Man 3 had a ridiculous amount of competition its first month, compared to both Avengers films. Why would Avengers 2 hold exactly the same when it has almost no competition this month except Tomorrowland and slightly San Andreas? 

 

What makes people think Mad Max won't do well? That trailer is gorgeous. 

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I think there's a chance it hits 190 and the attitude on this board turns around considerably. I think Sunday is being underestimated. I think the fight, in combination with game 7 AND the Derby, hurt me than people think. CNN's front page yesterday said "Sporturday!" for God's sake, and that's at a time where shit is actually happening in the world. Every sports fan had been hyping this up to be the greatest single sports day in a LONG time- and with sports being such a major part of Americans identity (no matter how much this board pretends they don't matter sometimes), that's huge. People will stay home for the king of all sports days. And looking at social media metrics, crowd reports, and preliminary buys/revenue info, turns out the fight was even bigger than I kept arguing it would be. So yea, Sunday is going to bounce back big. 

 

You might be right but Disney is already giving it a pretty generous hold of 20% on Sunday. TA1 had 18% with phenomenal WOM and a bunch of spillover from too many sellouts on Friday/Saturday. Excluding previews, it is performing more like IM3 than TA1. IM3 dropped 30% on Sunday, so it seems Disney is already accounting for at least some of the "bounceback" effect you're talking about.

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