AVENGERS Official Wknd Estimates: 191M - Disney

[The Stingray]

It's you guys who need to give your head a shake for putting such lofty and ridiculously unreal expectations on a sequel to a film that smashed records. History is littered with sequels to record breaking films, falling from the first ones.  All you had to do is do a little research but instead you went with your heart instead of your brain.

 

Jaws Jaws 2

Star Wars Empire

Porky's Porky's 2

Raiders Temple

Spiderman 1 Spiderman 2

Jurassic Park JP2

Godfather Godfather 2

Rocky Rocky 2

Batman Batman Returns

TDK TDKR

 

And the list goes on.

 

Like I said, easy call.

 

I'm not questioning the total (TA2 was never gonna make no 600m, I agree with that), but some of those of sequels you list had bigger OWs than their predecessors, no?

[baumer]

Do what? Every one of those that I mentioned was a sequel to something that broke records.

 

What SW films opened higher than the last?  The original opened in limited release so saying Empire opened higher is a no kidding.

Jedi was coming off Empire, arguably one of the best films ever made, so naturally it was going to be huge.Temple opened in 600 more theaters.  TDKR opened to about the same and the only one that really blew up was JP2.

Still an estimate? Shouldn't they come up with the actual already?

 

Too early.

[kitik]

The experts don't understand Avengers movies obviously.   They are applying metrics to them which don't apply.  

 

Once you get to a super big number, be it 150 ow or 400 domestic, there's just no such thing as accurate predictions any more.

[redfirebird2008]

 

I mean....TA destroyed the OW record.   I don't think we get how hard it is to match that....much less exceed it.

 

SM1 destroyed the record by an even bigger percentage. So did B89 for that matter. Their sequels still opened bigger. People were not crazy for looking at history and using that as a guide. Just as the history suggested TA2 was not going to match TA1's 623 total, it also suggested that there was a very good chance of it beating TA1's opening.

[baumer]

I'm not questioning the total (TA2 was never gonna make no 600m, I agree with that), but some of those of sequels you list had bigger OWs than their predecessors, no?

 

I covered this.  SW was basically in limited release.

Temple was a new era and opened in more than 600 theaters more than SW

JP 2 is a good example for your case.

Jaws 2 opened in 200 more theaters, which at the time was huge.

 

So the OW doesn't tell the whole story from back in the day.

[Infernus]

That's a deflection of the real failure. Those paid professionals? They got it wrong. They also got it wrong with TA. That's twice.

The faulty predictions are the "disappointment". The movie did great. There is no possible way the 2nd biggest OW of all time is disappointing. Failing to match one of the most impressive feats in box office history is certainly not disappointing....that's realistic. Expecting that to happen and then blaming the movie is just an attempt to salvage the ego. Admitting you blew it is a lot harder than pointing a finger at the movie for not matching your faulty prediction.

You know, I knew you were gonna reply with something like this and was thus thinking about ending mh post with something like - "What did 'you' expect for this movie?"

Anyways my post wasn't about this movie or just for defending calling this a disappointment. Althiugh its wrong to look at the few times the professionals turned out wrong while ignoring the many many times they end up pretty close. Anyways my post was about you saying that if we aren't happy with a movie for not breaking OW record or something similar than we should never be happy with a movie unless it does break records and that our thoughts should hold true for every single movie. Succes and failure in box office is very subjective and failure to understand this very essence of box office tracking means one knows nothing about box office was what I was saying in my post. Reply to that.

Edited May 4, 2015 by Infernus

[redfirebird2008]

What SW films opened higher than the last?  The original opened in limited release so saying Empire opened higher is a no kidding.

Jedi was coming off Empire, arguably one of the best films ever made, so naturally it was going to be huge.Temple opened in 600 more theaters.  TDKR opened to about the same and the only one that really blew up was JP2.

 

 

And TA2 is playing about 3,500 more screens than TA1. That's the entire point. With inflation and increased capacity, a sequel to a huge movie with great WOM should be able to beat the predecessor's opening.

[RichWS]

Bottom line is those of us who predicted less than 200M should pat ourselves on the back and realize this is one of the great achievements of our lives. It's all downhill from here.

[Chewy]

Bottom line is those of us who predicted less than 200M should pat ourselves on the back and realize this is one of the great achievements of our lives. It's all downhill from here.

 

Well, not ALL downhill. In less than a year you'll get to watch The Huntsman spinoff

[baumer]

And TA2 is playing about 3,500 more screens than TA1. That's the entire point. With inflation and increased capacity, a sequel to a huge movie with great WOM should be able to beat the predecessor's opening.

 

And the first was a novelty unlike any film before it.

[redfirebird2008]

And the first was a novelty unlike any film before it.

 

I could just as easily say the same for Batman, Spider-Man, and Jurassic Park.

[tidbit]

And the first was a novelty unlike any film before it.

 

I really missed on this myself.  TA was THE culmination of Marvel's cinematic designs, all the way back to Iron Man 1.  Getting this "All Star" game onto the big screen was sort of the "original Dream Team".  I don't know that there is any comparable movie in cinematic history... Certainly, not anywhere near this scale.

Edited May 4, 2015 by tidbit

[baumer]

Should still get best 2nd weekend next week.

 

How?

[ecstasy]

Bottom line is those of us who predicted less than 200M should pat ourselves on the back and realize this is one of the great achievements of our lives. It's all downhill from here.

  :lol:  

[baumer]

I could just as easily say the same for Batman, Spider-Man, and Jurassic Park.

 

I do agree with you in a sense....but there is one big missing factor.  None of those were in 3D.  I'm sure the diminishing interest in 3D had something to with it missing 200.

[abra]

UPDATE, Monday 9:03 AM:Disney/Marvel’s Avengers: Age Of Ultron ended up with a better than anticipated $191.3M domestically, pushing its worldwide cume to an impressive $631.1M, according to the studio. That’s $3.6M better than had been anticipated yesterday. The Avengers franchise now holds the top two spots of biggest opening of all time at the domestic box office. Stay tuned for more final domestic numbers as they become available.

http://deadline.com/2015/05/avengers-age-of-ultron-thursday-box-office-1201419080/

Edited May 4, 2015 by abra

[KATCH-2D2]

 

Too early.

Sorry I forgot the time different, it's already Tuesday morning in Australia. Lol

[redfirebird2008]

I do agree with you in a sense....but there is one big missing factor.  None of those were in 3D.  I'm sure the diminishing interest in 3D had something to with it missing 200.

 

I will completely agree with that one. I don't think enough people took that factor into account.

[Harpospoke]

I'm not questioning the total (TA2 was never gonna make no 600m, I agree with that), but some of those of sequels you list had bigger OWs than their predecessors, no?

 

SM1 destroyed the record by an even bigger percentage. So did B89 for that matter. Their sequels still opened bigger. People were not crazy for looking at history and using that as a guide. Just as the history suggested TA2 was not going to match TA1's 623 total, it also suggested that there was a very good chance of it beating TA1's opening.

 

And TA2 is playing about 3,500 more screens than TA1. That's the entire point. With inflation and increased capacity, a sequel to a huge movie with great WOM should be able to beat the predecessor's opening.

 See how we can't let go of our method for predicting this movie? Our predictions couldn't have been wrong...the movie was "disappointing" instead! How dare it not match our predictions! Why...look at how we used other movies to make our prediction! See how sound our logic was?

Well...predicting Avengers opening weekends obviously isn't that easy since no one has been able to do it yet.  The old methods for prediction don't work.  The predictions are obviously disappointing...but the movie knocked it out of the park.

 

You know, I knew you were gonna reply with something like this and was thus thinking about ending mh post with something like - "What did 'you' expect for this movie?"

Anyways my post wasn't about this movie or just for defending calling this a disappointment. Althiugh its wrong to look at the few times the professionals turned out wrong while ignoring the many many times they end up pretty close. Anyways my post was about you saying that if we aren't happy with a movie for not breaking OW record or something similar than we should never be happy with a movie unless it does break records and that our thoughts should hold true for every single movie. Succes and failure in box office is very subjective and failure to understand this very essence of box office tracking means one knows nothing about box office was what I was saying in my post. Reply to that.

I think not understanding that having the 2nd biggest OW of all time is a great performance is faulty thinking.   A lot of people having unrealistic expectations does not make the movie the problem.   It just means that a lot of people were wrong.   This isn't the first time a lot of people were wrong about an Avengers movie.   There is a pattern here.    Experts are using faulty logic for predicting Avengers movies. 

 

Edited May 4, 2015 by Harpospoke

[stuart360]

Bottom line is those of us who predicted less than 200M should pat ourselves on the back and realize this is one of the great achievements of our lives. It's all downhill from here.

 

Yes, all 3 of you.