Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend

[DavidBrennan]

I was there. I predicted 90/525 prior to release. Its overall gross was shocking but there were bunch of folks predicting a big breakout for Avatar. The buzz leading to the weekend was good and there were bunch of sellouts. Of course the weather was awful and that had 10%+ impact in its OW.

 

They're actually trying to make a Fox tentpole with a 250m budget and a ubiquitous media campaign sound like My Big Fat Greek Wedding.  This is beyond "disingenuous".  These guys are either ignorant or lying.

[kayumanggi]

AVATAR had to face these openers on its second weekend. That's a total of 133 M combined.

1	1	Avatar	Fox	$75,617,183	-1.8%	3,456	+4	$21,880	$212,711,184	-	2
2	N	Sherlock Holmes	WB	$62,304,277	-	3,626	-	$17,183	$62,304,277	$90	1
3	N	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel	Fox	$48,875,415	-	3,700	-	$13,210	$75,589,048	$75	1
4	N	It's Complicated	Uni.	$22,100,820	-	2,887	-	$7,655	$22,100,820	$85	1

 

And another 90 M from the holdovers on its third weekend.

1	1	Avatar	Fox	$68,490,688	-9.4%	3,461	+5	$19,789	$352,114,898	-	3
2	2	Sherlock Holmes	WB	$36,612,481	-41.2%	3,626	-	$10,097	$138,715,437	$90	2
3	3	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel	Fox	$35,189,653	-28.0%	3,747	+47	$9,391	$155,916,935	$75	2
4	4	It's Complicated	Uni.	$18,802,965	-14.9%	2,897	+10	$6,490	$59,178,840	$85	2

 

I am not claiming the movie had stiffer competition than JW. My point is, it's wrong to say it had ZERO competition.

[baumer]

and this number for Jurassic world it almost asures it 100 million for the second weekend. This run is truly amazing. It has incredibly strong weekdays and now it is going to do 100 million for a second weekend? This is truly going to be a historic run.

[LaneFair]

There isn't really anything in comparison with Avatar and JW other than their end totals will be near each other most likely.

[vc2002]

From where?  It got overwhelming love, beyond meaningless fanboy snark about its teaser trailer.

 

Stop this re-writing history to make AVTR - a behemoth that cost more than any movie in history and had one of the most aggressive and expensive marketing campaigns in history which dwarfed JW - seem like a Little Engine That Could.  It was a tentpole blockbuster that got fawning media coverage (including a whole 'Oprah' episode, a 60 Minutes segment, days of Drudge and HuffPost headlines - all BEFORE its release - and more).

 

AVTR was a media darling monster from the very start.

 

Are you still talking about the Avatar that did on the OW less than JW did in one day, cause I'm confused. That statement seems to be referring to a movie made 400m on the OW, I mean, JW opened to 200m and it DWARFED JW right?

[superduperm]

As much as I want JW to succeed, if will not come close to Avatar. $700M is the ceiling, IMO.

Titanic ($658M) is a solid goal that it should shoot for.

[DavidBrennan]

AVATAR had to face these openers on its second weekend. That's a total of 133 M combined.

1 1 Avatar Fox $75,617,183 -1.8% 3,456 +4 $21,880 $212,711,184 - 2 2 N Sherlock Holmes WB $62,304,277 - 3,626 - $17,183 $62,304,277 $90 1 3 N Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel Fox $48,875,415 - 3,700 - $13,210 $75,589,048 $75 1 4 N It's Complicated Uni. $22,100,820 - 2,887 - $7,655 $22,100,820 $85 1

 

And another 90 M from the holdovers on its third weekend.

1 1 Avatar Fox $68,490,688 -9.4% 3,461 +5 $19,789 $352,114,898 - 3 2 2 Sherlock Holmes WB $36,612,481 -41.2% 3,626 - $10,097 $138,715,437 $90 2 3 3 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel Fox $35,189,653 -28.0% 3,747 +47 $9,391 $155,916,935 $75 2 4 4 It's Complicated Uni. $18,802,965 -14.9% 2,897 +10 $6,490 $59,178,840 $85 2

 

I am not claiming the movie had stiffer competition than JW. My point is, it's wrong to say it had ZERO competition.

 

That's Christmas weekend.  That was it. 

 

You're so enamored with Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks that you've been compelled to repeat this rote Christmas fare at least four times.

 

Repeating them ad infinitum won't make them even remotely as threatening as IO.  But you keep repeating, "Alvin and the Chipmunks!" til your heart's content.

[Infernus]

When will PIXAR do an animation with only human characters? I liked Andy scenes in TS3 more than the entire movie. And I only care about Inside Out because of the Riley.

Nah they do animals and inanimate objects better. Just like all other american studios even they can't animate human characters well.

You wanna see films with quality and well animated human characters that really feel real and with whom you can actually connect? See anime movies. Especially Ghibli Works. Depending on your taste you may like them better than Pixar stuff. For superb character portrayals watch Whisper of the Heart and Grave of the Fireflies.

Btw through your profile pic, i think you may already be an anime fan and maybe thats why you want Pixar to do that too. In that case let this post just be for anyone wanting to watch good human-character-focused movies.

Edited June 20, 2015 by Infernus

[DavidBrennan]

As much as I want JW to succeed, if will not come close to Avatar. $700M is the ceiling, IMO.

Titanic ($658M) is a solid goal that it should shoot for.

 

I think that's likely, too, but who would have thought JW would even come close to where it is?

 

But, of course, JW has to face legitimate competition in the coming weeks (starting with a Pixar monster) whereas AVTR had the run of movie theaters from December 26 onward.

 

But if we swapped AVTR's competition with JWs, JW would demolish AVTR.

[kayumanggi]

From where?  It got overwhelming love, beyond meaningless fanboy snark about its teaser trailer.

 

Stop this re-writing history to make AVTR - a behemoth that cost more than any movie in history and had one of the most aggressive and expensive marketing campaigns in history which dwarfed JW - seem like a Little Engine That Could.  It was a tentpole blockbuster that got fawning media coverage (including a whole 'Oprah' episode, a 60 Minutes segment, days of Drudge and HuffPost headlines - all BEFORE its release - and more).

 

AVTR was a media darling monster from the very start.

 

You predicted 760 M from AVATAR? You speak as if you knew how it would perform. So are you saying AVATAR owes it's success to what, media coverage? Oprah?

 

And the issue here is you saying the movie had zero competition. That is what I am basically replying to. The movie had big competition.

[baumer]

I've mentioned this several times but I have seen Jurassic world 4 times already. I know I can go to the local flea market and buy it on bootleg for 5. bucks. I have no desire to do that. I will go see this movie again at the theater perhaps two or three more times. And at least one of those will be in IMAX. It is that incredible of an experience seeing it on the big screen in my opinion.

[DavidBrennan]

You predicted 760 M from AVATAR? You speak as if you knew how it would perform. So are you saying AVATAR owes it's success to what, media coverage? Oprah?

 

And the issue here is you saying the movie had zero competition. That is what I am basically replying to. The movie had big competition.

 

No it didn't.  We've already established that.  Let's move on before you start your gushing over 'Alvin and the Chipmunks 2' all over again.

[Ozymandias]

Lol guys.

 

Avatar had a very aggressive marketing campaign(i remember it) because the studio spent a fuckload on it.  It opened really high for an "original" film in December.  It actually took the December OW record at the time I think but don't care enough to double check.

 

JW is a quasi reboot/sequel to one of the biggest classics in history that people still love, and it opened in Summer with a good but not batshit crazy marketing campaign.

 

Shit.

[kayumanggi]

I was there. I predicted 90/525 prior to release. Its overall gross was shocking but there were bunch of folks predicting a big breakout for Avatar. The buzz leading to the weekend was good and there were bunch of sellouts. Of course the weather was awful and that had 10%+ impact in its OW.

 

Only Kal got it right. Only Kal.

[vc2002]

I think that's likely, too, but who would have thought JW would even come close to where it is?

 

But, of course, JW has to face legitimate competition in the coming weeks (starting with a Pixar monster) whereas AVTR had the run of movie theaters from December 26 onward.

 

But if we swapped AVTR's competition with JWs, JW would demolish AVTR.

 

And if we swapped Avatar's OW with JW's, Avatar would make 1billion.

Edited June 20, 2015 by vc2002

[Ozymandias]

And both had competition but JW is gonna be facing a lot more in the middle of summer.

Edited June 20, 2015 by Ozymandias

[baumer]

Also good to see a lot of films hold well, especially Spy. I think the legs will start kicking in now. I fully expect to see several weeks with low drops like in the high twenties or low thirties.

[kayumanggi]

That's Christmas weekend.  That was it. 

 

You're so enamored with Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks that you've been compelled to repeat this rote Christmas fare at least four times.

 

Repeating them ad infinitum won't make them even remotely as threatening as IO.  But you keep repeating, "Alvin and the Chipmunks!" til your heart's content.

 

So what if it's Christmas? They are still competition. Summer movies benefit from summer weekdays. If you don not consider AATC II and SH as competition, there's really no point talking to you. This stanning is unbelievable.

[DavidBrennan]

Yes, AVTR, that lil Indie Film (250m) budget, that opened so quietly, against the vaunted Box Office Titan, 'Alvin and the Chipmunks 2'.  Surely, it opened modestly, right?

 

Avatar was released internationally on more than 14,000 screens.^[163]Avatar earned $3,537,000 from midnight screenings domestically (United States and Canada), with the initial 3D release limited to 2,200 screens.^[164] The film earned $26,752,099 on its opening day, and $77,025,481 over its opening weekend, making it the second largest December opening ever behind I Am Legend,^[5][26] the largest domestic opening weekend for a film not based on a franchise (topping The Incredibles), the highest opening weekend for a film entirely in 3D (breaking Up‍ '​s record)

 

[DavidBrennan]

Here's the BOM report on AVTR's OW.  As expected, it was a monster from the start, and as massive as its OW was, it was indeed muted by blizzards in the Northeast:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2632&p=.htm

 

"Massive amount of hype."

Edited June 20, 2015 by DavidBrennan