Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend

[Asyulus]

What should be IO's OW multiplier?

[CJohn]

Titanic is sunk.  Avatar is on the horizon.

Lets not get carried away. 600M is already great. Avengers is the big target. 

[redfirebird2008]

Universal will move some of the money from Sunday over to Saturday so Avengers get's nothing 

 

Poor Avengers

 

[Infernus]

What should be IO's OW multiplier?

Should be between 3.8-4.1 (350-375). Not less because of superb WOM, affect of JW on its OW (although thats slightly minimised due to people watching this instead due to sell outs...still it did have some effect since there weren't that many sell outs, compared to its OW, anyways) not more because...well this is quite a big OW and I wouldn't want to get carried away...4 is big enough already.

[a2k]

Lets not get carried away. 600M is already great. Avengers is the big target. 

 

At least going over TA is a guarantee I think. Based on the updated Sunday gross, it needs ~225m more after a ~105m weekend.

Needs 250-255m to get Titanic. That should fall too.

Doing 2.5x off the 2nd weekend is a safe bet. (though worth noting that 2nd weekend here is a little inflated due to Father's Day)

 

Avatar is way far I agree. Looking at the biggest 10 day grosses, TS3 has had the best multiplier off the 10-day total (barring Avatar, which was a Christmas release). Legs like that take JW to ~730m.

 

imo it's looking at 685m, +/- 20m.

Edited June 22, 2015 by a2k

[Fanboy]

Lets not get carried away. 600M is already great. Avengers is the big target.

It's already 30 million ahead of The Avengers and still has much stronger weekdays to look forward to. How is it going to miss Titanic?

[VGPOP]

People will say you're crazy but so far it has had a more impressive run than either TDK or Avengers. Neither of those films faced any real competition in their second weekend. Its 10-day multiplier is not far behind TDK (1.98 to 1.93).

 

It needs a 3.35 overall compared to TDK's 3.34 to reach $700m. If it can hold up this well against a Pixar movie at over $90m, then who knows what this thing is gonna do.

I am comparing this movie with the run TDK had. Even though they were released in different months and people might not find comparison suitable for each other.

 

But for me, it's the perfect comparison because of weekday numbers. I still have JW at least $165 million ahead of TDK.

[Mike Wazowski]

Funny Facts:

-If you adjust ticket sales of JW to 1997, it almost did in 10 days what JP2 did in it's entire run:P (225m jw- 229m jp2)

 

- With same multiplier of The Incredibles IO will finish around 341m

[redfirebird2008]

I am comparing this movie with the run TDK had. Even though they were released in different months and people might not find comparison suitable for each other.

 

But for me, it's the perfect comparison because of weekday numbers. I still have JW at least $165 million ahead of TDK.

 

Just have to see how it goes. TDK made 58.8% of its total gross in 10 days. Same thing for JP4 would mean $685m or so.

Edited June 22, 2015 by redfirebird2008

[Mike Wazowski]

Just have to see how it goes. TDK made 58.8% of its total gross in 10 days. Same thing for JP4 would mean $685m or so.

i'm more than ok with that number xD

[Jessie]

We are not prepared for this insanity. This is one of the most exciting times in box office history.

 

A movie breaking the biggest second weekend on record with a 90 M opener on its tail.

 

Do people even realize how crazy that is?

TDAT and Shrek 2's weekend was more impressive

[redfirebird2008]

i'm more than ok with that number xD

 

I think Universal would be too.

 

(understatement of the century)

[electric storm]

So JW is going to drop less than 50% from the highest opening of all time up against a 90m opener. I mean, WTF is even going on here? I really don't know if even Star Wars can emulate this.

[Mike Wazowski]

TDAT and Shrek 2's weekend was more impressive

adjusted 2015:

 

Shrek2: 94m

TDAT: 89m

 

JW: around 107m

IO: 91-93m

 

i think this facts disagree, not to say it was an inflated weekend for memorial day of 2004

Edited June 22, 2015 by Mike Wazowski

[redfirebird2008]

So I guess Universal gets the last laugh for that Saturday morning projection of 103.3 after the 29 Friday.

[Deep Wang]

"A woman killed?!?  Jurassic World is MISOGYNIST!  SJWs, unite!"

 

 

 

 

I'm guessing you are a gamer-gater since that is the second time I have seen you use this silly little meme.

[vc2002]

So JW is going to drop less than 50% from the highest opening of all time up against a 90m opener. I mean, WTF is even going on here? I really don't know if even Star Wars can emulate this.

 

If SW follows the trends of this year, it will likely disappoint. I mean, this year is for surprises, like surprising breakouts like Sniper, FF7, and now JW, or surprising letdowns like TA2. SW7 is so anticipated, so "supposed to be huge", like TA2 was, so I guess if it has to surprise people, it needs to be a letdown as well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Or it could gross 900m DOM to also make it a surprise, but I really dont see this happening lol

Edited June 22, 2015 by vc2002

[#ED]

Actuals in about 4 Hours... 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Jurassic's really setting the bar high for Star Wars. If Jurassic manages $700M+ DOM, I'm not certain Episode VII wins 2015 DOM.

[CJohn]

I am not sure if SW is gonna pass JW. I think it will but I honestly don't know.