RAMPAGE | 13 April 2018 | Warner Brothers | Dwayne Johnson

[Nova]

This stars The Rock and some big monster animal (I think). It's going to make $40M+ OW

Edited April 10, 2018 by Nova

[Zakiyyah6]

12 minutes ago, Nova said:

This stars The Rock and some big monster animal (I think). It's going to make $40M+ OW

Anything could happen but I'd be surprised if it opened below 40mil. The Rock can't sell every movie but this kind of big dumb CGI-fest is right in his wheelhouse. It looks like harmless goofy fun.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Anything could happen but I'd be surprised if it opened below 40mil. The Rock can't sell every movie but this kind of big dumb CGI-fest is right in his wheelhouse. It looks like harmless goofy fun.

This is his bread and butter imo I know in box office there are no guarantees (except IW opening above $200M) but I would honestly be shocked if this opens under $40M 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

This is his bread and butter imo I know in box office there are no guarantees (except IW opening above $200M) but I would honestly be shocked if this opens under $40M 

Shocked even with the tracking showing 35m and nothing special since then happened about that movie (except A quiet place second weekend being a bigger than expected even if it is more than different enough to find all audience there):

 

http://variety.com/2018/film/news/box-office-dwayne-johnson-rampage-opening-weekend-1202733783/amp/

 

Possible obviously, 45/50m is possible, but 35m is hardly shocking considering that Johnson has one non franchise entry 40m+ OW in is hole career so far with San Andreas (Jumanji being a december 36m is probably an equivalent of over 45m, but that a franchise title with Hart) and giant disaster movies can open above 60m with an non-star cast (day after tomorrow, 2012 for examples)

 

And non horror/not strong IP live action opening 40m+ in 2016/2017/2018:

 

0 in 2016

Dunkirk 2017

RPO kinda in 2018 (still a somewhat popular book)

 

And those are giant director's above with giant 150m+ movies with special marketing/good reviews-buzz going on.

 

Need to go back to 2015 with The Martian/San Andreas to find some, it is just extremely rare now a day to have a 40m non horror/not a strong IP to do that kind of figure (San Andreas/RPO showing how possible it is, even to reach 50 obviously, but it would not be bad to get 35/37m for this, it should be an fully international play with a good intl multi over dbo and should not have Pru/TR type of WW legs).

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 10, 2018 by Barnack

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

Shocked even with the tracking showing 35m and nothing special since then happened about that movie (except A quiet place second weekend being a bigger than expected even if it is more than different enough to find all audience there):

 

http://variety.com/2018/film/news/box-office-dwayne-johnson-rampage-opening-weekend-1202733783/amp/

 

Possible obviously, 45/50m is possible, but 35m is hardly shocking considering that Johnson has one 40m+ OW in is hole career so far with San Andreas (Jumanji being a december 36m is probably an equivalent of over 45m, but that a franchise title with Hart)

 

And non horror/not strong IP live action opening 40m+ in 2016/2017/2018:

 

0 in 2016

Dunkirk 2017

RPO kinda in 2018 (still a somewhat popular book)

 

Giant director's above.

 

Need to go back to 2015 with The Martian/San Andreas to find some it is just extremely rare now aday a 40m non horror/not a strong IP to do that kind of figure.

 

 

 

 

 

When you think you know box office and then Barnack just slaps you silly with the facts 

[dxmatrixdt]

Resident Evil adjusted would be 28m OW, $11,100 PTA on 2,528 screens.

 

Unadjusted, that is 17.7 OW, $7,004 PTA with a +1% jump from Fri to Sat

[Avatree]

25 minutes ago, Nova said:

This is his bread and butter imo I know in box office there are no guarantees (except IW opening above $200M) but I would honestly be shocked if this opens under $40M 

How is infinity war guaranteed to open over 200M? The last two avengers movies didn't manage it.

[DAJK]

Oblivion run incoming

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, November Treejax said:

How is infinity war guaranteed to open over 200M? The last two avengers movies didn't manage it.

Umm because Empire City said the data backs it opening close to $250M and there are no signs that show it would open to less than $200M 

[RRA]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Umm because Empire City said the data backs it opening close to $250M and there are no signs that show it would open to less than $200M 

I've seen others mention him saying this. Got a link for the original post?

[Nova]

1 minute ago, RRA said:

I've seen others mention him saying this. Got a link for the original post?

I'm on my phone so it'll take sometime for me to find it but It's in the thread about IW opening to above $300M 

 

someone mentioned $248M and he said the data backs it up 

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, November Treejax said:

How is infinity war guaranteed to open over 200M? The last two avengers movies didn't manage it.

Both Pre-sales and tracking are really special and a clean different step above Ultron/Civil War/everything ever if I understand the number correctly and if they are for the same amount of time before release date.

 

It bring a part of Guardian gained audience, a part of Panthers gained audience, Panthers just did over 200m and Infinity wars seem to be above it in every way thus far tracking/selling wise.

[Avatree]

20 minutes ago, Barnack said:

And non horror/not strong IP live action opening 40m+ in 2016/2017/2018:

 

0 in 2016

Dunkirk 2017

RPO kinda in 2018 (still a somewhat popular book)

 

And those are giant director's above with giant 150m+ movies with special marketing/good reviews-buzz going on.

 

Need to go back to 2015 with The Martian/San Andreas to find some, it is just extremely rare now a day to have a 40m non horror/not a strong IP to do that kind of figure (San Andreas/RPO showing how possible it is, even to reach 50 obviously, but it would not be bad to get 35/37m for this, it should be an fully international play with a good intl multi over dbo).

 

 

 

 

 

I think you are being pretty unfair. You say there are not many original expensive live action action films that open above 40M but how many are there full stop... It's not like 9/10 open below 40M it's just that there aren't many released at all.

 

"Only 1 in 2017" but there are only 2 released in 2017. The other being Valerian. That's it. So not sure what your point is. 

[Zakiyyah6]

What last two Avengers movies? Civil War was not an Avengers movie and it wasn't even marketed as one but people can keep lying to themselves that it was. There have only been two Avengers movies and one of them opened with 200+mil. Infinity War is a lock to open above 200mil. Unlike Ultron (which was a huge hit by the way) it has an actual hook and new added characters that people give a crap about. Scarlet Witch and her brother are not Spider-Man and Black Panther. 

[MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie]

Review pending, but for now: RAMPAGE is the best video-game movie ever made and might be @TheRock's best action film. A perfect pre-Summer blockbuster. Kids are gonna LOVE it!#RampageMovie

— Bob Chipman (@the_moviebob) April 10, 2018

[John Marston]

12 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

What last two Avengers movies? Civil War was not an Avengers movie and it wasn't even marketed as one but people can keep lying to themselves that it was. There have only been two Avengers movies and one of them opened with 200+mil. Infinity War is a lock to open above 200mil. Unlike Ultron (which was a huge hit by the way) it has an actual hook and new added characters that people give a crap about. Scarlet Witch and her brother are not Spider-Man and Black Panther. 

Civil War was definitely marketed as an Avengers movie. Tony Stark/Iron MAn and SPider-Man and Black Panther were a big part of the marketing

 

 

 

But Infinity War clearly has far more hype than both Civil War and AOU so it doesn't matter

[junkshop36]

It’s not a matter of if IW hits 200m but how far above it it goes. 

[Jonwo]

You have to wonder if this was WB's backup tentpole in case RPO didn't do well, I imagine it's not too expensive so if it does San Andreas numbers WW, it should be considered a success.

[Barnack]

24 minutes ago, November Treejax said:

I think you are being pretty unfair. You say there are not many original expensive live action action films that open above 40M but how many are there full stop... It's not like 9/10 open below 40M it's just that there aren't many released at all.

 

"Only 1 in 2017" but there are only 2 released in 2017. The other being Valerian. That's it. So not sure what your point is. 

Not many, but that a bit of a circle, not many because how hard it is to make a 40m live action OW.

 

If by expensive you have in mind 85m or more budget like a Geostorm/Ghost in a shell, Monster Truck, BFG, Great Wall, Deepwater Horizon, Valerian, God of Egypt, there is not that many.

 

But even with some name recognition when it is not the strongest IP: Blade Runner, Mummy, Tarzan, King Arthur, Ben Hur, Miss Peregrine, Magnificent seven, PRU, Tomb Raider, Assassin Creed, the last Alien with good review did 36m.

 

In 2017 to take that example, non horror live action without a strong IP (list was quickly made):

Blade Runner, Valerian, Geostorm, Monster Truck, Ghost in a shell, King Arthur, Promise/Great Wall do not really count I guess,

 

Even with a somewhat strong ip/sequel:

Mummy, Alien Covenant, xxx Xander Cage, Kingsman

 

Power rangers made it in extremist with 40.3m and Dunkirk.

 

RPO barely did it, Spielberg 180m movie with giant marketings, holiday, impressive 4,200 theater with the imax/3d, the Kingsman movie never made it to 40, it is an high bar. One that would not be shocking to miss for an almost original movie from a box office point of view (that said 50+m for this would not be shocking either, gap between floor and ceiling can be large for movies like that)

[DAJK]

35 minutes ago, MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie said:

RAMPAGE

fuck British Columbia ratings