Weekend Actuals 7/3-7/5: Inside Out 29.77M, JW 29.24M, Genisys 27.02M. Greek Wedding's record survives

[redfirebird2008]

Yeah that sounds like wishful thinking from someone rooting against it. TG has shown no signs of potentially having big drops. I'm hoping for 4.5 million today, 5 million Tuesday, 4 Million Wednesday and 3.8 million Thursday. With it doing around 14 million weekend as well. That would put the movie at around 74 million after it's second weekend.

 

Who are you to call out anyone on wishful thinking? You've overpredicted T5 the entire way. It's not dropping less than 47% today as your $4.5m number would require. Hope for 50% and even that is optimistic.

[baumer]

Yeah that sounds like wishful thinking from someone rooting against it. TG has shown no signs of potentially having big drops. I'm hoping for 4.5 million today, 5 million Tuesday, 4 Million Wednesday and 3.8 million Thursday. With it doing around 14 million weekend as well. That would put the movie at around 74 million after it's second weekend.

 

Transformers 2 apparently had toxic WOM and it dropped 43% the weekend after July 4th.

[Tubes]

$14 million range for TG seems right, as that would mirror what Public Enemies did in 2009.  Doing less would be a sure sign of bad legs and a really poor reception; doing more could indicate a surprising late summer run if it isn't hurt too badly by Ant Man.

[redfirebird2008]

Transformers 2 apparently had toxic WOM and it dropped 43% the weekend after July 4th.

 

Of course it also wasn't coming off opening weekend. I expect T5 to drop around 50-55%.

[Rthmessiah]

That explains why AMC Empire is almost always on top.

 

I bet if a movie opened there and nowhere else, that cinema's sellouts could propel it into the top 10.

what other theatre are you talking about

 

The Empire 25 when it #1 with a title can be as high as 15-50% above #2 at times.

 

The complex itself across the board has ranked #1 every year since 2002 and usually takes in a year 15-20% above #2, annual admits exceeds 2m.

If  the Empire 25 and E-walk 13 across the road where combined (E-walk  takes about 1/2 of what Empire does) it would be  in the stratosphere

 

Lincoln Square is #2 in NYC area

Edited July 7, 2015 by rthandhisMinions

[Rthmessiah]

Top complexes year to date

 

Rank/Last year

1 (1)-AMC Empire 25, New York City NY

2(3)-AMC Burbank 30, Burbank CA

3(5)-AMC Lincoln Square 13, New York City NY

4(4)-CPLX Scotiabank Chinook , Calgary AB

5(6)- AMC Garden State 16, Paramus NJ

6(2)-Regal Union Square 14, New York City NY

7(17)-Pac Arclight Hollywood, Los Angeles CA

8(8)-Regal Long Beach 26, Los Angeles CA

9(9)-AMC Century City 15, Los Angeles CA

10(13)-AMC Aventura Mall 24, Miami FL

[redfirebird2008]

Too many people in LA and NYC, lol.

[Tubes]

what other theatre are you talking about

 

I was betting that a movie could break into the top 10 just by selling out it's showings at AMC Empire 25.  I did some math afterwards and while that can't really happen, it looks like a big movie could do upwards of $300,000 for a weekend just at that multiplex.

 

For TG, using T3 and TS's Friday to Friday drop, it's second weekend should be in the range of $12 to 15 million, with a total between $67 to $71 million domestic.

[Cochofles]

Home did 175 million domestic. I don't think anyone saw that coming.

Edited July 7, 2015 by cochofles

[Blankments]

It's the middle of summer, so the weekend family bump isn't as much of an issue. With JP4 it's simply the fact that adults are not off work during the week so they wait for the weekend to watch it.

 

JP4 should benefit from Minions given the fact they are from the same studio. Holdovers from the same studio are always fudged for big openers, plus it's likely Universal will put the two together for drive-in shows.

More anecdotal evidence from Blank, but my drive-in has Minions and Inside Out so...

[Rthmessiah]

I was betting that a movie could break into the top 10 just by selling out it's showings at AMC Empire 25.  I did some math afterwards and while that can't really happen, it looks like a big movie could do upwards of $300,000 for a weekend just at that multiplex.

 

For TG, using T3 and TS's Friday to Friday drop, it's second weekend should be in the range of $12 to 15 million, with a total between $67 to $71 million domestic.

TDKR in its first week, let say was getting close to 1m (abut 30% higher than #2 theatre and over 40% higher than the #3)

 

in the last 5 years 16 films have taken more than 300k @ Empire OP wjend, top 3 TDKR, TA, Fast7

Edited July 7, 2015 by rthandhisMinions

[redfirebird2008]

More anecdotal evidence from Blank, but my drive-in has Minions and Inside Out so...

 

It wouldn't be up to the studio at every single one of them. Blank likes the anecdotal evidence, haha. There is plenty of factual evidence regarding double bills from the same studio. It only happens when the studio has a say in the matter though.

[baumer]

Of course it also wasn't coming off opening weekend. I expect T5 to drop around 50-55%.

 

I don't.  You're talking about a deflated weekend.

[redfirebird2008]

I don't.  You're talking about a deflated weekend.

 

Which will keep it from dropping 60% or more. The weekdays will be inflated since this isn't May.

[FilmBuff]

Will Terninator penises get to 100 mil!

[K1stpierre]

Will Terninator penises get to 100 mil!

Edited July 7, 2015 by K1stpierre

[Blankments]

It wouldn't be up to the studio at every single one of them. Blank likes the anecdotal evidence, haha. There is plenty of factual evidence regarding double bills from the same studio. It only happens when the studio has a say in the matter though.

I always got the impression it depends on the studio if they want to demand both are there. Like Inside Out wasn't at my drive-in opening weekend because they wouldn't want Jurassic with it. Like Jurassic started playing with San Andreas, and Furious 7 started playing with Insurgent.

 

IDK, I feel like Universal doesn't care unlike Disney or WB with their drive-in fudging. Again, I don't have any data to back this except my own personal drive-in schedule.

[baumer]

Which will keep it from dropping 60% or more. The weekdays will be inflated since this isn't May.

 

Why would it drop 60%?  WOM is far from Toxic

[Captain Craig]

I'm not seeing a scenario where T:G avoids a sub 50% drop. Sure 65% is huge but why rule it out, it opened horribly for a film the studio placed high expectations. 

It's gotten mediocre to bad WOM, it has a bad critic score(for those where that matters) and a borderline Rotten Audience score(backing up the mediocore to bad WOM all over Twitter & FB. 

[redfirebird2008]

I always got the impression it depends on the studio if they want to demand both are there. Like Inside Out wasn't at my drive-in opening weekend because they wouldn't want Jurassic with it. Like Jurassic started playing with San Andreas, and Furious 7 started playing with Insurgent.

 

IDK, I feel like Universal doesn't care unlike Disney or WB with their drive-in fudging. Again, I don't have any data to back this except my own personal drive-in schedule.

 

Maybe they don't care about the drive-in's, but they do old fashioned fudging for big openers. Take a look at the Universal holdovers during JP4's opening weekend: 

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2015&wknd=24&p=.htm

 

One way or the other JP4 is going to benefit from Minions, just like Pitch Perfect 2 and Furious 7 benefited from JP4.