Weekend Actuals 7/3-7/5: Inside Out 29.77M, JW 29.24M, Genisys 27.02M. Greek Wedding's record survives

[redfirebird2008]

Why would it drop 60%?  WOM is far from Toxic

 

TDKR didn't have toxic WOM either (despite your bitching about the film) and it dropped over 60%. Inflated July weekdays make it tougher to have a strong second weekend. Even TDK with phenomenal WOM dropped over 50% in the second weekend due to enormous weekday numbers.

[Ozymandias]

Whats JW's drop next weekend likely to be? 30%?

[baumer]

TDKR didn't have toxic WOM either (despite your bitching about the film) and it dropped over 60%. Inflated July weekdays make it tougher to have a strong second weekend. Even TDK with phenomenal WOM dropped over 50% in the second weekend due to enormous weekday numbers.

 

You're talking about two films that made about 150 million dollars.  Of course they are going to drop more than 50%.  Every film with the exception of JW and Avengers that is in the top 20 opening weekends of all time dropped more than 50% second weekend.

[redfirebird2008]

Whats JW's drop next weekend likely to be? 30%?

 

40%. Hope for 35%.

[baumer]

Whats JW's drop next weekend likely to be? 30%?

 

IMO, yes.

[baumer]

40%. Hope for 35%.

 

Why?  Why would it be that high?  What movie are you comparing it to from 2009?

[redfirebird2008]

You're talking about two films that made about 150 million dollars.  Of course they are going to drop more than 50%.  Every film with the exception of JW and Avengers that is in the top 20 opening weekends of all time dropped more than 50% second weekend.

 

Even comparing it with Public Enemies, your best case scenario is 45%. That assumes T5 has no franchise frontloading, which is a pretty big assumption to make. I think a drop around 50% is completely reasonable.

[baumer]

Even comparing it with Public Enemies, your best case scenario is 45%. That assumes T5 has no franchise frontloading, which is a pretty big assumption to make. I think a drop around 50% is completely reasonable.

 

I think it's completely unreasonable.  I think you are ignoring the trend from 2009.  45% max.

[redfirebird2008]

Why?  Why would it be that high?  What movie are you comparing it to from 2009?

 

I'd like it to be a really good hold too. Just have to see how it goes.

 

 

 

I think it's completely unreasonable.  I think you are ignoring the trend from 2009.  45% max.

 

I'm not ignoring it. Public Enemies dropped 45.4% and that was an original movie with no franchise frontloading.

Edited July 7, 2015 by redfirebird2008

[GregBeuke]

Who are you to call out anyone on wishful thinking? You've overpredicted T5 the entire way. It's not dropping less than 47% today as your $4.5m number would require. Hope for 50% and even that is optimistic.

I overpredicted it's opening and I was wrong(so were tons of other people). But I was also right about grosses going up during the weekend. The movie is showing good holds so far despite the numbers not being high. So I think the movie will carry that into the week. Considering the movie hasn't had more then a 26.9 drop so far and bounced back the following day.

Edited July 7, 2015 by gb0708

[Noctis]

I overpredicted it's opening and I was wrong(so were tons of other people). But I was also right about grosses going up during the weekend. The movie is showing good holds so far despite the numbers not being high. So I think the movie will carry that into the week. Considering the movie hasn't had more then a 26.9 drop so far and bounced back the following day.

 

Mhm.

[redfirebird2008]

I overpredicted it's opening and I was wrong(so were tons of other people). But I was also right about grosses going up during the weekend. The movie is showing good holds so far despite the numbers not being high. So I think the movie will carry that into the week. Considering the movie hasn't had more then a 26.9 drop so far and bounced back the following day.

 

Just think you are setting yourself up for disappointment with that sub-47% Monday drop. If it actually happens I'll be the first one to give you full credit for that prediction.

[GregBeuke]

I'm not seeing a scenario where T:G avoids a sub 50% drop. Sure 65% is huge but why rule it out, it opened horribly for a film the studio placed high expectations. 

It's gotten mediocre to bad WOM, it has a bad critic score(for those where that matters) and a borderline Rotten Audience score(backing up the mediocore to bad WOM all over Twitter & FB.

Despite low opening, it's showed consists numbers from day to day. Plus WOM is a lot better than you think for this movie.

[GregBeuke]

Just think you are setting yourself up for disappointment with that sub-47% Monday drop. If it actually happens I'll be the first one to give you full credit for that prediction.

Maybe I am, maybe it's a little high. I just think there's still a decent size Terminator fan-base who didn't see it yet. So I think it will hold well for at least this week and early next week. At least until Ant-Man comes out. Terminator Genisys seems to be one of those movies that people want to see. But isn't a must see, so it's numbers could be spread out with good legs. That's at least what I'm hoping for. Because tracking and online data had there more interest in this movie then it's shown so far. That said Terminator Genisys did have a big drop on movietickets.com today. So that could mean a poor Monday total. I guess we will find out in a few hours.

Edited July 7, 2015 by gb0708

[#ED]

TDKR in its first week, let say was getting close to 1m (abut 30% higher than #2 theatre and over 40% higher than the #3)

 

in the last 5 years 16 films have taken more than 300k @ Empire OP wjend, top 3 TDKR, TA, Fast7

I like this.

[scabab]

So what would be considered both a good and bad Monday gross for Terminator?

[Gopher]

They decided to not renew with Dreamworks. They are as fucked as Sony. 

 

Dreamworks was in iffy shape with Para (their breakout rate was low but so was their failure rate) but they're in BAD shape now with Fox. Over three years and six movies they had three very bad flops and one disappointment (HTTYD2). They had to cancel a bunch of movies so they could support the ones further into production. If Home had bombed like many of us expected it to they might've closed up shop after KFP3. 

Edited July 7, 2015 by Gopher

[GregBeuke]

So what would be considered both a good and bad Monday gross for Terminator?

I'd say 3.5 million or higher would be solid/good for Terminator. Personally I'm hoping for higher to make up for its crappy opening. But as some have said. I'm probably setting myself up for disappoint.

[CJohn]

Yeah, DWA is in the shit right now.

[Ethan Hunt]

Yeah, DWA is in the shit right now.

Home was just a hit,.KFP 3 will be massive OS and probably decently domestically... No idea what they've got coming after that...