Tuesday Numbers | Inside Out - 6.4M; Jurassic World - 4.8M; Terminator Genisys - 4M; Magic Mike XXL - 3.2M (Actuals Page 13)

[K1stpierre]

Dayuuuuuuuuuuum. IO is SLAYIN.

[redfirebird2008]

JW looks like $650m probably won't hapoen.

 

Actually looks like it's doing just what it does every week.

[GiantCALBears]

Actually looks like it's doing just what it does every week.

Which is just enough to eek out a win over TA1

[redfirebird2008]

Which is just enough to eek out a win over TA1

 

Nope.

[The Dark Alfred]

You mean Titanic...

[Bishop54]

JW looks like $650m probably won't hapoen.

How come?

[Mike Wazowski]

JW has a 35m difference from TA and from today it might start tracking better, 650m is very very in play

it might even drop less than 25% next weekend

Edited July 8, 2015 by Mike Wazowski

[GiantCALBears]

You mean Titanic...

I just said $650m won't happen so no I don't, we'll see how hard it drops this weekend. It's entirely possible but the holds are starting to weaken a bit.

[BadAtGender]

Always funny how the multipliers end up with non-Friday openers.  Take The Amazing Spider-Man for instance, its opening weekend was $62 million, and its total domestic gross was over $262 million, this would suggest a multiplier over 4.2 suggesting very good legs, but it opened on a Tuesday and already had burned through $75 million (much higher than its opening weekend), similar to Magic Mike XXL, which opened on Wednesday and already banked $15 million prior to its opening weekend (which was less than its first two days).

 

Always thought a better comparison was to take a film's first 7 days and extrapolate legs from there.  This is a better (but not perfect) apples - to apples comparison to try to minimize the effect of having had weekdays prior to the opening weekend.  For The Amazing Spider-Man that would equate to a 1.81, compare that to The Dark Knight, opening weekend $158,411,483, total domestic gross of $533,345,358 for a multiplier of 3.37, by that logic then The Amazing Spider-Man had better legs than The Dark Knight?  But if we use the first 7 days $238,615,211, we get a multiplier of 2.23, showing by this example that The Dark Knight had much better legs than The Amazing Spider-Man.  

 

​Another example would show The Incredible Hulk (2008) to be 1.799 and Spiderman (2002) to be 2.66.  On the other end of the spectrum is Titanic with a 7 day multiplier of 11.34.

 

Just have to figure out what's considered "poor" legs, "great" legs, "average" etc. using this metric.

 

If we just adjust the 7-day chart on BOM from lowest-to-highest percentage of the total, it gives us an idea:

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/grossbydays.htm?days=7&sort=percoftotal&order=ASC&p=.htm

 

Avatar, of course, is great. As is Frozen.

 

Matrix Revolutions, 50 Shades, Twilight films all have bad legs.

 

We could also just take the 3-day grosses, regardless of when the release happened.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/grossbydays.htm?days=3&sort=percoftotal&order=ASC&p=.htm

[Plain Old Tele]

For BSG purposes we only look at 3 day weekend for multipliers. MMXXL could end up screwing a lot of people if it hits 50M.

 

[GiantCALBears]

JW has a 35m difference from TA and from today it might start tracking better, 650m is very very in play

But not a sure thing, far from it.

[baumer]

JW looks like $650m probably won't hapoen.

Sure it will. Youre basing this on a Tuesday gross? Watch it drop 35% this weekend.

[redfirebird2008]

JW has a 35m difference from TA and from today it might start tracking better, 650m is very very in play

it might even drop less than 25% next weekend

 

Through Tuesday its lead is $38m.

[vonGneisenau]

how could JW do only 63 mills more now? it's holding up great. i really hope it's getting back some IMAX screens, since TG has tanked hard now!

Edited July 8, 2015 by vonGneisenau

[GiantCALBears]

You mean Titanic...

Plus it won't really beat Titanic anyways, barely will pass its unadjusted domestic total. Insane but it's just some arbitrary # with a rerelease in it. I always thought the old $600m even total was pretty cool fudge.

[GiantCALBears]

how could JW do only 63 mills more now? it's holding up great. i really hope it's getting back some IMAX screens, since TG has tanked hard now!

Who said $63 more mil? It's at $560m as of Monday We are talking about $650m or Titanic which is slightly higher.

[redfirebird2008]

Who said $63 more mil? It's at $560m as of Monday We are talking about $650m or Titanic which is slightly higher.

 

You said it would barely get past Avengers' $623m.

[GiantCALBears]

Sure it will. Youre basing this on a Tuesday gross? Watch it drop 35% this weekend.

35% w/ Minions opening? Lol sure man, think you way underestimate the crossover.

[junkshop36]

I wish minions wasn't coming out; other wise IO might have legged it's way to 400m. Little yellow bastards, lol!

[BadAtGender]

More and more I wish adjusted tracking was based on real inflation and not ticket price inflation.

 

It's supposed to be an approximation of admissions, but since that isn't tracked it gets to be this kludge of a thing, which isn't really measuring either tickets sold or how much two films across eras made (or cost.) It seems much better to abandon the admissions attempt and just acknowledge that it's better to compare dollars to dollars and make the straight adjustment from there.

 

Hmm... Maybe I'll take that up as a future spreadsheet project.