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CJohn

Weekend Estimates: Minions - 115.2M; JW - 18.1M; Inside Out - 17.1M; Gallows - 10M; Self/Less - 5.4M; MMXXL - 9.6M; T5 - 13.7M

By CJohn, in Numbers and Data

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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Likely? Man oh man, I disagree.

It is a sequel to a movie basically everyone saw. I actually think over 100M is a lock, but since we have 0 marketing, my opinion might change.
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The Futurist Global Phenomenon

The Futurist

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Mendes got plenty of creative control on Skyfall (and Spectre, from the looks of it), and it worked out swimmingly. It's clearly his movie and the film is all the better for it, and so was the box office. The last three Mission Impossible movies have had great reception (and by that I mean 3, 4, and 5, because apparently Rogue Nation is really good), and they've all had clear elements of their individual director's style and creative ideals. Raimi got plenty of power for the first two Spider-Man movies, and I'd say most people loved them. It wasn't until the studio forced Venom into the third one that their started being behind-the-scenes drama not related to Tobey's back, and it showed in the final product. For the first Avengers, everything tied into that movie, instead of the other way around, so for the most part Whedon got to make his movie, and it worked out. So while it is rare, there's enough examples to remain hopeful, I suppose.

 

Anyway, looks like the WC is going to determine whether Minions is just merely huge or whether it can potentially challenge Shrek The Third's record, but even 43 million would put the record out of reach.  And even if Minions looks mad annoying, a record is a record, so I'm rooting for it. I think that anything over 330 million domestic would (hopefully) put to rest any discussion of whether the Minions are the biggest part of this franchise's drawing power. There's still plenty of people who say its Gru. 

 

Look, the basic error in your analysis is this :

 

you assume that (almost) every time a tentpole is great it s because the director had a "vision", a distinctive "style" & no (little)studio meddling.

CREATIVE FREEDOM !!! Give me Dark Knight brrrooooooooood !

You are basically assuming that every decision a great director makes is the right one and that s why in the end you have a great movie because suits, producers are not " artists", they are disturbing the "artiste" to express himself. Well, producers are artists. They take lots of creative decisions on movies with their directors, even the "little" ones.

Every director would tell you that.

 

Many people think Casino Royale is better than Skyfall but Martin Campbell is just  a yes men with no "vision" that got lucky with a good script, right ?

The Brocoli  family was doing the Feige thing with the Bond franchise before he was even born.

And Skyfall was basically Dark Knight worship ( from Sam Mendes own words) with great cinematography.

Skyfall surfed a wave with little vision.

Casino Royale was the movie that reset the franchise in the right path.

Edited by The Futurist
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superduperm Box Office Gold

superduperm

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Finding Dory, Toy Story 4, Frozen 2 and Despicable Me 3 are the only legit contenders. I am gonna throw The Secret Life of Pets 2 into the conversation. I legit believe the first one next Summer will be gigantic and a sequel will be greenlighted.

Frozen 2 has a chance if and only if it opens on a Friday in November (assuming they open it sometime during the holiday season). Toy Story 4 won't open as high as the third film, it's going to be based on characters outside of the regular franchise. Finding Dory is being overestimated IMHO and DM3 could fall if the WOM from Minions is toxic.

Barring a miracle this weekend, I am legitimately convinced that the stinkin' Shrek the Turd is invincible. Toy Story 3 couldn't even beat it (though it probably would have had it opened in May) and now even Minions is looking to fail despite some of the most massive marketing I have seen.

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

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Mendes got plenty of creative control on Skyfall (and Spectre, from the looks of it), and it worked out swimmingly. It's clearly his movie and the film is all the better for it, and so was the box office.

The last three Mission Impossible movies have had great reception (and by that I mean 3, 4, and 5, because apparently Rogue Nation is really good), and they've all had clear elements of their individual director's style and creative ideals. Raimi got plenty of power for the first two Spider-Man movies, and I'd say most people loved them. It wasn't until the studio forced Venom into the third one that their started being behind-the-scenes drama not related to Tobey's back, and it showed in the final product. For the first Avengers, everything tied into that movie, instead of the other way around, so for the most part Whedon got to make his movie, and it worked out. So while it is rare, there's enough examples to remain hopeful, I suppose.

 

The Broccolis run James Bond with an Iron Fist that make David O'Selznik look like a marshmallow.  If Mendes got his way or his style comes through it's only because it agreed with their vision and what they wanted.  Which is why they chose him. 

 

Sony was hands on with all the Spider-men but it only with Spider-man 3 that their visions collided and caused a mess. Whedon has said in multiple interviews that AOU is far more his movie than The Avengers and he got his way on everything except about 2 minutes of the final cut.

 

If the vision of the director doesn't line up with, please or interest the producer/studio in the first place they're not going to be hired or they're quickly going to part ways.   When you're dealing with hundreds of millions in investment of billion dollar properties this is not unreasonable.  If a director wants total control either spend your own money like Mel Gibson or Kevin Costner, make a micro budget movie (even mid sized movies are going to have studio and producer involvement) or prove yourself first by bringing in the bucks like Nolan or Speilberg.

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Deep Wang Global Phenomenon

Deep Wang

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Omega, you mentioned the other day that y'all put Minions on at least one of your large format screens. Did you still have Jurassic playing on the biggest screens at the time Inside Out opened? Reason I asked is that could be a little boost for Minions compared to Inside Out (higher prices for large format screen).

We only have one PLF called IDX. We have one bigger theater, but it's just a big ass theater, no upgrades.

We don't get to choose what gets IDX or DBOX, but I place everything else.

JW had IDX until Terminator. Terminator had it just a week and now Minions has it.

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