Romania Box Office

[James]

Sounds great for Five Armies. What kind of potential drop are we talking about this week?

Well, DOS and AUJ dropped 15%, respecively 5% on this weekend last year, but that was their third week, not the seond, so I expect BotFA to drop over 30%, especially considering it's massive first outing. If it ends up over 100.000 adm again it would be excellent.  It could actually have more admissions after Sunday, in 10 days, than the first two films had after 3 weeks.

[James]

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE

 

The final instalment in the most popular frianchise around ('The Hobbit') outpaced even the most generous prognostications, making this weekend the most attended ever.

 

- The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies had a massive second weekend, selling 114.338 tickets. That is by far the biggest second weekend ever. Actually, if we'd count it as an opening weekend, it would be the 3rd biggest ever, behind only it's own first weekend and 'The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2's one (123.163).

It is also way bigger than the first outings of 'An Unexpected Journey' (88.636 adm) and 'Desolations of Smaug' (100.008 adm).

After only 10 days in theatres, 'The Battle of the Five Armies' stands at an incredible 337.698 admissions and $1.91M, which is more than the first two films made after 3 weeks.

Here is a comparison:

 

 

Also, 'The Hobbit 3' is already the highest grossing movie of the year and the 6th highest grossing film of all time. By next weekend,even with a bad exchange rate, it should have no problem becoming the 2nd highest grossing movie ever (behind 'Avatar') and the 2nd most attended film of the 21st century (also behind 'Avatar'). At this point, 500.000 adm is a lock.

 

Top 20 Highest Grossing Movies Ever

 

 

- In second, Dumb and Dumber To increased a healthy 26%. Total stands at a great $490K and 100.247 admissions. $700K finish might be possible.

 

- Surpassing expectations, Annie debuted with 17.958 admissions (an 89K). That would be an ok opening for it, but there are a number of factors that make it seem bad. First of all, 'Annie' had one of the widest releases ever (85 screens - WTF?!). Second - the WOM seems to be bad. And third - the tickets are very cheap since it's main audience are families. So it would be surprising for 'Annie' to go much higher than $300K.

 

- The Penguins of Madagascar did crazy business this weekend. The animation increased a huge 54% (much, much more than 'Puss in Boots' in the same weekend), reaching $887K and 170.648 admissions. It is locked to become the highest grossing 'Madagascar' film and $1.1M is in the cards. 

 

- The thriller/drama Sun of a Gun opened to a surprisingly strong 12.134 admissions (and $66K). While that's generally a bad number, it's good to remember that the movie wasn't marketed almost at all. Still, with 'Taken 3' coming in 2 weeks, it won't go very high.

 

- Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb debuted with a bombing 11.832 adm and $62K. Even considering the main theatre chain pulled it out to make room for 'The Hobbit', that is still pathetic. 'Exodus: Gods and King' was in the same situation and it still opened with over 30.000 tickets from the same number of screens. On top of it all, the WOM is not that great either. 

 

- Speaking of Exodus, the biblical adapatation increased a nice 15% and reached a decent $394K. That is a very good result, considering it's not distributed through the main theatre chain. If Cinema City decides to release it at some point in 2015, it might end up close to $1M.

 

- Paddington also increased (12%) and reached almost $300K, a respectable sum for it.

 

- Horrible Bosses 2 jumped a big 23%. It now passed the first movie in number of tickets sold (102.150). It's at $519K and it could overtake the first 'Horrible Bosses' $544K total by next weekend.   

 

- Interstellar closes the top, increasing 15%. Total stands at a mighty 299.575 adm and $1.57M. If it avoids losing al it's theatres, it still has a chance at overtaking 'The Wolf of Wall Street'. Either way, it had a great run (currently No. 12 all time).

 

- Outside Top 10, the local movie Alt Love Building flopped with a little over 5.000 adm and the Bollywood film Toonpur Ka Superrhero barely registered (it sold only 31 tickets ).

 

Top 10:

 

 

Next week's openers:

 

- Seventh Son

- Into the Woods

- Asterix: Le domaine des dieux

 

The 'Seventh Son' book series is popular here and the presales look quite ok. An opening in the 30.000 adm area should happen.

 

'Les Miserables' bombed here and 'Into the Woods' seems to be doing the same... at least that's what I get from presales. It's marketing push is also pretty weak. It could have strong walk-ins, but right now I don't see it. It should get a pass if it sells over 20.000 tickets for the weekend.

 

As for 'Asterix', the animations are hard to predict from presales, but even so, the situation looks quite bad for it. I don't think it will make 10.000 adm.

 

'The Hobbit' will comfortably rule for a third week. It had a very strong Monday and tomorrow looks to be the same. Even if it follows 'The Desolation of Smaug' and slides 45%, it should still end up with over 60.000 adm.

 

And here's the new Top 20 for 2014:

 

Edited December 29, 2014 by James

[Rsyu]

Damn, already in the top 10! Looks like 600K adm can really happen

[James]

Damn, already in the top 10! Looks like 600K adm can really happen

I sure hope so but it will be difficult. If it follows 'Smaug', it should be at 445.000 adm (453.000 if it follows AUJ) by the end of the next weekend. The thing is, it would need another 150.000 adm after that and both AUJ and DOS dropped like a rock after the New Year's week and made less than 80.000. On the other hand, BotFA seems to be having even better WOM so the hope is still there.

[PanaMovie]

how many people are in Romania?

 

There seems to be a lot of room to growth 

[James]

how many people are in Romania?

 

There seems to be a lot of room to growth 

In 2011 the count came in at 20.1M, but since the population keeps decreasing, the estimations right now are somewhere in the 19M area.

 

And there is room to grow. Today or tomorrow I'll make the year end chart for 2014 and an update for the predictions for 2015. The BO grew quite a bit in both USD and admissions this year.

[James]

2014 YEAR ANALYSIS / 2015 PREVIEW (UPDATE)

 

Since for some annoying reason we only have weekly box office updates here, now that the final 2014 weekend came in, the BO year is also complete. Overall, 2014 was quite a good year. Here's a list with the yearly BO in USD since 2007.

 

2007 – 8.731.200

 

2008 – 13.453.000 (+54 % from 2007)

 

2009 – 20.681.800 (+53.7 %)

 

2010 – 25.720.000 (+24.3 %)

 

2011 – 39.756.900 (+54.5 %)

 

2012 – 41.837.000 (+5.2 %)

 

2013 – 48.495.700 (+15.9 %)

 

2014 - 55.382.000 (+14.2 %)  

 

Earlier this year I estimated the 2014 BO to finish with close to $60M and the estimate would've come true if the exchange rates wouldn't have changed so much. The RON lost 10% of it's value since last year and that was especially bad when you think the change happened mostly in the fall/winter seasons, that are the biggest ones for the Roumanian box office.

 

When we talk admissions, for the first time in it's history the number of tickets sold surpassed 10M. To be precise, 10.142.026 tickets were sold in 2014, which represents a 12.5% increase over 2012's 9.014.902.

 

Also, this past weekend was our most attended ever, with 359.270 people entering cinemas.

 

As a fun fact, the first 100.000+ weekend was registered in July 2009; the first 200.000+ adm weekend was registered in January 2010 and the first 300.000+ was the last weekend of 2013. 

 

Now, beyond the general observations, 12 movies grossed more than 1M this year. 'The Penguins of Madagascar' will soon join the club, and so 2014 easily beat the previous record held by 2011 (10 films).

 

Also, 5 movies released this year made the Top 20 Highest Grossing Movies Ever, of which 2 entered Top 10 ('The Hobbit 3' and '300: Rise of an Empire').

 

Just like in previous year, the epic fantasy/period fantasy genre was the strongest, 'The Hobbit' and '300: Rise of an Empire' topping the charts, and 'Noah', 'Pompeii', 'Dracula Untold', 'Hercules' and 'The Legend of Hercules' also making great business. The rest of the chart was occupied by SF/Big Action Spectacle movies. The only exceptions where 'The Wolf of Wall Street', 'Rio 2' and 'The Penguins of Madagascar'. Speaking of animation, 2014 was a weak year for it. The only animated movie that will pass the 1M border will be 'Penguins'.

 

As a general fact, it's worth noting that for 3 consecutive years (2012, 2013, 2014) the box office was comfortably ruled by 'The Hobbit' series. With earnings of almost $7M as of now (and more than 1.1M admissions), it is easily the biggest franchise here and that is not even counting the original trilogy. Nothing comes even close. 

 

Also, of the 5 movies that ever managed to make more than $2M in their runs, 2 are 'Hobbit' movies. 'The Battle of the Five Armies' will join the club in the next couple of days.

 

I wanted to mention this since I will now talk about 2015 and it's somewhat sad looking forward and seeing no movie with $2M+ potential.

 

Below it's the forecast I made earlier this year; I will update it a bit since some major players moved ('Inferno', 'Kung Fu Panda 3'), while others appeared ('The Maze Runner 2', 'Divergent 2', 'In the Heart of the Sea') and the exchange rate fucked everything up:

 

1. Spectre (October 23)

Original forecast: 1.8M

Updated forecast: 1.7M 

 

2. Fast and Furious 7 (April 3)

Original forecast: 1.7M

Updated forecast: 1.6M

 

3. Star Wars: Episode VII (December 18)

Original forecast: 1.5M

Updated forecast: 1.6M

 

4. Avengers: Age of Ultron (May 1)

Original forecast: 1.65M

Updated forecast: 1.5M

 

5. Jurassic World (June 12)

Original forecast: 1.2M

Updated forecast: 1.3M 

 

6. Fifty Shades of Grey (February 13)

Original forecast: 1.15M

Updated forecast: 1.15M

 

7. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 (November 20)

Original forecast: 1.2M

Updated forecast: 1M

 

8. Cinderella (March 13)

Original forecast: 1M

Updated forecast: 1M

 

9. Minions (July 10)

Original forecast: 950K

Updated forecast: 1M

 

10. Taken 3 (January 9)

Original forecast: 1M

Updated forecast: 1M

 

OTHER MOVIES, in no particular order:

 

- Hotel Transylvania 2 (October 23)

Original forecast: 850K

Updated forecast: 850K

 

- The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials (date unknown as of now)- NEW

Forecast: 800K 

 

- Ted 2 (June 26)

Original forecast: 800K

Updated forecast: 800K

 

- The Jungle Book (October 9)

Original forecast: 800K

Updated forecast: 800K

 

- Jupiter Ascending (February 6)

Original forecast: 700K

Updated forecast: 800K

 

- Mad Max: Fury Road (May 15)

Original forecast: 750K

Updated forecast: 800K

 

- Terminator: Genisys (July 3)

Original forecast: 750K

Updated forecast: 750K

 

- Ant-Man (July 31)

Original forecast: 750K

Updated forecast: 750K

 

- In the Heart of the Sea (March 13) - NEW

Forecast: 700K

 

- Tomorrowland (May 22)

Original forecast: 600K

Updated forecast: 700K

 

- Inside Out (June 19)

Original forecast: 600K

Updated forecast: 700K

 

- Divergent 2: Insurgent - NEW

Forecast: 650K

 

- Pan (July 17)

Original forecast: 600K

Updated forecast: 650K

 

- Big Hero 6 (January 23)

Original forecast: 800K

Updated forecast: 600K

 

- Peanuts (November 6)

Original forecast: 700K

Updated forecast: 600K

 

- The Good Dinosaur (November 27)

Original forecast: 600K

Updated forecast: 600K

 

- Seventh Son (January 2) - NEW

Forecast: 550K

 

- The Fantastic Four (June 19)

Original forecast: 400K

Updated forecast: 500K

 

As for the year as a whole, passing $60M is locked and $65M is likely.

Edited January 6, 2015 by James

[pepsa]

Do you think if they would rerelease The Hobbit AUJ next year it would top the boxoffice ?

[James]

Do you think if they would rerelease The Hobbit AUJ next year it would top the boxoffice ?

Haha, I don't think so. But they would do good money if they would rerelease LOTR in 3D. We LOVE 3D. The only shows TBotFA sold poorly were te 2D ones.

[James]

Weekend Update: 

'Seventh Son' is looking very busy everywhere so I expect a good opening for it. People seem excited.

The main theatre chain sells tickets only for Bucharest for 'Into the Woods' and even there the presales are horribly weak. I don't know if this means it will have a limited release or not. However, unless it has major walk-ins it will flop.

A week in advance, 'Taken 3' is starting to look like a major player. A lot of 50% full shows already.

'The Hobbit' is by far the leader in presales, but in many locations it's starting to lose shows. Hoping the drop will be good.

[James]

Weekend Update 2:

Crazy busy day for 'Seventh Son'. Last week I was thinking 30.000+ adm OW, now 40.000+ seems likely. It could be frontloaded, but it has a lot of sellouts.

'Into the Woods' continues to disappoint. I'm just curious if it will end up more in the 'flop' territory or in the 'bomb' one.

'The Hobbit' is losing a massive amount ofshowtimes this weekend and I really get why. 'Seventh Son' taking away some of it's 3D screens is probably the main reason. Still, it is very busy everywhere.

[James]

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE

 

Another great weekend, thanks to 'Seventh Son's burnin hot debut and 'Hobbit's huge third weekend.

 

- Seventh Son outpaced all predictions opening to an unbelievable 60.711 adm (and $385K). If it would have opened in 2014, that would have have been the 6th biggest opening weekend of the year! The 'Wardstone Chrinicles' books are very popular here, but even so the movie expanded well beyond it's fan-base. Comparing it to similar adaptations, 'Seventh Son' opened a bit below 'Mockingjay - Part 1' in admissions, but well above in gross (thanks to 3D prices). It also opened much higher than 'Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows Part 2', it almost doubled 'The Maze Runner' and it tripled 'Divergent' and it should ultimately have no problem ending up with over $1M and quite possibly a place in 2015's Top 10. Fantastic for it!

 

- In second, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies fell a bit harder than expected, but still sold a huge amount of tickets 56.003. It is now the second most attended movie of the 21st century after 'Avatar' (with 439.727 admissions) and also the  second highest grossing ever, after 'Avatar' (with $2.48M). 600.000 admissions looks a bit hard now though. Comparison:

 

 

- Thanks to heavy marketing this weekend (a hell lot of TV spots on the biggest TV channel here), Asterix: Le domaine des dieux opened with a decent 21.054 admissions (and $108K). That's on par with 'Paddington' a few weeks back, but the latter had holidays to boost it's numbers, so 'Asterix' will likely close under $300K.

 

- Once again, the animated sensation was The Penguins of Madagascar. It slides just 24%, while the total stands at $984K. $1.1m should happen.

 

- Dumb and Dumber To enjoyed another solid hold (-45%). It's cume is a great $578K and $700K seems within reach.

 

- In it's second outing, Annie drops 44% (bot good, bot bad). Total: $167K (bad).

 

- Son of a Gun was down 41%.

 

- Exodus: Gods and Kings had a very good hold (-31%), reinforcing the fact that if it would have been released through all the teathre chains it would have been a huge hit. Still, it's $456K gross is nothing to scoff at.

 

- Paddington had another nice drop, while Night at the Museum 3 collapsed (-52%).

 

- Outside Top 10, Into the Woods debuted with a disastruous 5.189 admissions. True, that came from only 9 screens, but the number is still bad, much worse than 'Les Miserables', which was a legendary bomb.

 

- Also outside Top 10, Interstellar finally managed to cross the 300.000 adm border (306.798) after a measly 14% drop. In the process, it surpassed 'The Wolf of Wall Street' to become the third highest grossing movie of 2014 with $1.61M. It has a good chance that, by the end of it;s run, to move ahead of 'Frozen' as the 10th highest grossing film ever. 

 

It's worth noting that Warner Bros completely dominated the market last year, the top 3 movies ('The Hobbit 3', '300: Rise of an Empire' and 'Interstellar') being distributed by them. 

 

Also, even more impressing, the Top 10 Highest Grossing Movies of All Time includes 4 WB titles (and 'Interstellar' is to raise that number to 5 pretty soon).

 

Top 10:

 

 

Next week's openers:

 

- Taken 3

 

I think it's the first time in more than a year when we have only one new opener, but Taken 3 will be enough to make the box office boom. 'Taken 2' opened with over 52.000 adm back in 2012 and after countless re-runs on TV, I expect the final movie in the popular series to make over 60.000 admissions. The fact that it aready has sellouts for the weekend it's a good sign. 

[CJohn]

ITW bombing and Seventh Son opening big also happened over here.

[James]

ITW bombing and Seventh Son opening big also happened over here.

Our markets are actually very smilar in both size and tastes.

[James]

Monthly update: Solid weeks up ahead. 'Hacker' (the Hemsworth movie) is having quite a nice number of presales, 'Water Diviner' was only given a show so far but it had sold out, 'Big Hero 6' is receiving a major marketing push from the main theatre chain in the hope that it will be the first Pixar/Disney non-princess animation not to flop/bomb (it is actually taking the IMAX screens from 'The Hobbit' which is kinda crazy; the tickets go on sale on the 14th), 'American Sniper', 'Mortdecai', 'Unbroken' look for decent grosses too, 'Jupiter Ascending' will do good (hopefull it will take the IMAX screens from BH6 cuz I really want to see it in IMAX) and '50 Shades'  My guess is that we are in for one of the biggest debuts ever, but we'll see. The anticipation is definitely sky-high (on the main theatre chain's site it already has more votes than The Hobbit had at the same time before it's release).

 

'Taken' is doing solid business this weekend but the holdovers might fall hard since this weekend is known for it's poor holds.

Edited January 11, 2015 by James

[Dingdong123]

Hopefully BH6 does great numbers. When will it open?

[James]

Hopefully BH6 does great numbers. When will it open?

It opens on January 23.

[James]

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE

 

Very good weekend, mostly thanks to 'Taken 3's impressive debut.

 

- Opening on 60 screens, Taken 3 draw a huge number of people into theatres (79.401) making $398K. In admissions, that is one of the biggest openings ever. It's also way up from the previous instalment of the series (52.042 admissions and $277K). 'Taken 2' had pretty bad legs, but even with a similar multiplier, 'Taken 3 should still hit $1M. 

 

- The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies had a similar drop to 'Desolation of Smaug' through the same weekend last year, falling 61%. The admissions stand at a mighty 486.679 and the gross at $2.73M. At this point it looks to end it's run with around 550.000 adm and $3.2M.

 

 

- Seventh Son fell to third, after a 65% slide (the biggest in Top 10). It now passed 100.000 adm and made $560K. $1M might not happen if it doesn't have a decent drop next weekend.

 

- Asterix: Le domaine des dieux fell a big 61% despite being an animation.

 

- The Penguins of Madagascar eased and ok 50% and finally passed the 1M border ($1.03M). It is now the most attended and the highest grossing movie in the 'Madagascar' franchise and also the 6th highest grossing animation ever. 

 

- Annie had a good hold (-43%). Still, total is a weak $203K.

 

- Exodus: Gods and Kings had the best drop in Top 10 (-40%). It now reached a good $494K.

 

- Dumb and Dmber To was down 64%, but the cume is a great $612K.

 

- Paddington enjoyed another solid hold (-43%) and brought it's gross to a decent $368K.

 

- Into the Wood almost dropped out of Top 10 in it's second outing. In fact, Interstellar's 10th weekend was very close to overtake it. Total stands at a pathetic $55K.

 

Top 10:

 

 

Next week's openers:

 

- Blackhat

- The Water Diviner

- Birdman

- Kis Uykusu

 

'Blackhat' looks to have some solid presales and I see a lot of TV spots for it so a debut north of 30.000 adm should happen.

 

'The Water Diviner' also looks solid, but I think it will have a pretty limited release so it should stop in the 10.000 adm area.

 

'Birdman' should debut weak, with maybe 5.000 tickets and the last movie - well under that.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

What's the total of MJ there? Better than CF?

[James]

What's the total of MJ there? Better than CF?

MJ is at $837K. It's still making money but it will probably end up a bit behind CF's 855K total, despite selling more tickets. Worse exchange rates than last year.