Weekend Estimates (pg49): Mockingjay 101M | Spectre 14.6M | Night Before 10.1M | SITE 6.63M

[grim22]

Deadline update

 

3RD UPDATE, 8:53PM: Refresh for updates Liongate’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjapy-Part 2 is coming in at the low end with an industry estimate of $47M for its opening day on its way to a $105.2M weekend. Before one screams sequelitis and depreciating B.O. ticket sales, it’s possible that the fourth film, which carries an estimated combined budget and P&A cost of $215M stateside, could profit off simply off of theatrical just like MJ1, before Lionsgate counts TV and home entertainment dollars and costs. Here’s what went down with MJ1: The film raked in $337.1M at the box office which translated to a $162M rental. Combined that with foreign pre-sales and the theatrical revenue raises to $292M against the pic’s $190M combined budget and P&A. That’s a $102M profit before counting TV/home entertainment. We could potentially see a similar scenario this time, though with a slightly lower black margin, that is if the CinemaScore files in at an A- or A. We’ll know soon.  MJ1 posted an A- to the first two films’ As, and that generated a 2.8 multiple cume of $337.1M off its $121.9M opening.

Sony’s Spectre and 20th Century Fox’s The Peanuts Movie are holding off any newcomers respectively planting their feet in spots 2 and 3. Spectre is looking at a third weekend of $15.1M, off 55% for a cume by Sunday of $154.2M. Peanuts is set to collect $13M per industry estimates, down 45% in its third frame for a total cume of $99.3M, $700K short of $100M. If it gets there, it all depends on matinees tomorrow.

Newcomers, Sony’s Seth Rogen R-rated holiday comedy isn’t burning that brightly with a $3.4M Friday and a $9.6M weekend, slightly below the $10M-$12M projection. STX/IM Global’s The Secret In Their Eyes is looking at a $2.5M Friday and a $7.5M weekend, toward the lower end of its early weekend estimates.

[Ozymandias]

So The Hunger Games joins the long list of franchises with mediocre or bad threequel/final installments.  There is only one Lord of the franchises, only one can bend the shitty finale curse to its will, and it does not share power.

 

 

 

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

Ouch poor lionsgate stock gonna crash

[druv10]

Not good. MJ2 could potentially miss 100M OW.

[Impact]

So this month there is a Rocky film, next month a Star Wars film...while there was a Ridley Scott sci fi last month, a Peanuts film this month and finally a Mad Max film this year!
What year is this?

[Olive]

105x2.8=294M

under 300M is more likely than over

[Impact]

Well people are tired of Troll Rogan!

As for MJ2-disapointing but kind of expected in a way given the way they made the film.

Someone at Lions is now going "we should just put Divergent 3 as one film!"

History did show that splitting up a film into 2 parts tends to not go that well-HP7 is the exception to the rule.

[Fake]

It's pretty clear that audiences are rejecting these cash-grab 2-part finales when there isn't enough content to justify it. If MJ was not split then it would have very likely done $400M+.

 

Sure, the studio may end up milking more profit this way, but by going that way the series could finish on a high-note rather than a whimper, and could have better lasting impression on fans (like LOTR).

[Spidey Freak]

10 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

There is only one Lord of the franchises, only one can bend the shitty finale curse to its will, and it does not share power.

 

That Toy Story trilogy is truly one of its kind.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Yeesh, that's bad for TNB. 

[Impact]

Am I the only one who predicting correctly for Night Before?

[Spidey Freak]

4 minutes ago, Impact said:

Well people are tired of Troll Rogan!

As for MJ2-disapointing but kind of expected in a way given the way they made the film.

Someone at Lions is now going "we should just put Divergent 3 as one film!"

History did show that splitting up a film into 2 parts tends to not go that well-HP7 is the exception to the rule.

 

I'm not sure. The two Breaking Dawns have obviously earned more than one Breaking Dawn film will earn. Ditto with Mockingjay part 1 and 2.

 

Though yeah, Allergent or whatever it is called would be an interesting (and hilarious) case where splitting the finale could spectacularly backfire.

Edited November 21, 2015 by Spidey Freak

[The Futurist]

My pessimism was spot on unfortunately.

 

Barely above 100m ow, 300m a miracle, stronger competition & wom still a question mark.

 

The box office of MJ2 is as grim as the movie.

[Impact]

Just now, Spidey Freak said:

 

I'm not sure. The two Breaking Dawns have obviously earned more than one Breaking Dawn film will earn. Ditto with Mockingjay part 1 and 2.

 

Though yeah, Allergent or whatever it is called would be an interesting (and hilarious) case where splitting the finale could spectacularly fail.

I forgot about BD-then again maybe that's for the best I did :P

[druv10]

6 minutes ago, Fake said:

It's pretty clear that audiences are rejecting these cash-grab 2-part finales when there isn't enough content to justify it. If MJ was not split then it would have very likely done $400M+.

 

Sure, the studio may end up milking more profit this way, but by going that way the series could finish on a high-note rather than a whimper, and could have better lasting impression on fans (like LOTR).

To be fair, THG will leave lasting impact especially JLaw as the primary female protagonist.

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

 

 

 

 

 

Shit that looks like shit drop for Spectre

 

[The Futurist]

From Twilight 2 to 5, the franchise remained insanely consistent dom & the last film did great OS too.

 

Time to short your Lionsgate stocks people.

[The Futurist]

No Finale Effect whatsoever, NONE.

 

A part of GA just simply didn't give a fuck about Katniss anymore.

[water]

if anything doesn't this performance show that audiences didn't treat this like it was split at all? it's following the classic third-and-fourth-installments-of-a-series-each-drop-sizeably pattern, which indicates audiences saw mj1 and mj2 as full regular third and fourth installments and not a split third installment

[Impact]

Secret in their Eyes-failed Oscar bait! I thought it looked like a bad Oscar bait type film when I saw the trailer.