Jason Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 (edited) Here's a regional breakdown of Frozen, Inside Out, and Zootopia, with ER-adjusted grosses shown for Frozen and Inside Out: Quote Region Frozen Froz-A IO IO-A Zootopia United States + Canada $400.7 n/a $356.5 n/a $341.3 All OS Territories $875.7 $752 $501.1 $470 $682.2 Asia $388.8 $377 $108.7 $114 $366.6 Europe $318.4 $247 $239.6 $227 $218.3 Latin America $90.4 $61 $112.0 $88 $56.1 Oceania $31.1 $26 $26.7 $27 $24.0 Middle East $11.5 $10 $9.1 $9 $5.4 Africa $2.8 $2 $3.6 $4 $1.5 China $48.240 $43.7 $15.314 $14.2 $235.591 Japan $249.037 $247.3 $32.500 $38.9 $70.127 South Korea $76.696 $73.0 $33.579 $34.1 $31.259 Hard to make predictions this far out, but I'm going to assume Moana will be well-received. All the numbers of are guesstimates, but hopefully reasonable ones, neither conservative nor wildly optimistic. I'm predicting $325M domestic, I'd predict more but I think Sing is going to cut off Moana's late legs. ER-adjusted European gross for all three of these films has been pretty consistent, so $225M seems pretty reasonable. ER-adjustment for Latin America is not nearly as valid because of large increases in ticket price in local currency, so I think $90M is reasonable. Australia/NZ - $25M, Middle East/Africa and untracked territories - $20M. Asia is really tricky. Looking at a wider set of animated films (ER-adjusted grosses shown here), grosses in Asia are more variable than other regions, largely because the three large markets of China, Japan, and South Korea sometimes completely ignore films (Ice Age), but also sometimes go wildly crazy for them (Frozen in Japan, Zootopia in China). I'm not going to predict a breakout for Moana in any of those three markets, but I don't think Moana will be ignored either - $75M in China (more than Frozen, but I'm factoring in market growth), $50M in Japan, $40M in South Korea. Another $25M from all other Asian markets. $190M total. 190+225+90+25+20 = $550M OS $325M domestic + $550M OS = $875M WW, enough to put Moana past Pets and probably Sing, but perhaps not enough to pass Fantastic Beasts. Edited October 1, 2016 by Jason took me a while to notice the typo 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newbie BO buff Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 (edited) boxofficepro released their long range forecast for Moana, 285 mil domestic 40:60 split gives 712 mil ww 35:65 split gives 814 mil ww Edited October 1, 2016 by newbie BO buff 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 I think that this is going to do about $500m outside of US+Canada. Kind of like Zootopia, except it will make less in China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YM! Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Guessing $500M OS and $270M domestic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 With late releases in Brazil and Japan we'll follow for at least 6 months Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 (edited) I actually doubt Moana could make that huge money, could even less than $250m domestically, moana does not have good timing at marketplace as frozen did, while frozen in 2013, did face competition like walking with dinosaur but defeat each of them and ruled the Christmas+New Year, but moana has do deal with universal's SING! which also feature song or musical some sort, Sing is going to cut moana's leg, and is a bigger threat as trailer view for Sing is so massive, 42m view on you tube, I suppose it's greater buzz/hype could dampen moana's ability to be another princess phenomena. Edited November 3, 2016 by titanic2187 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 11 minutes ago, titanic2187 said: I actually doubt Moana could make that huge money, could even less than $250m domestically, moana does not have good timing at marketplace as frozen did, while frozen in 2013, did face competition like walking with dinosaur but defeat each of them and ruled the Christmas+New Year, but moana has do deal with universal's SING! which also feature song or musical some sort, Sing is going to cut moana's leg, and is a bigger threat as trailer view for Sing is so massive, 42m view on you tube, I suppose it's greater buzz/hype could dampen moana's ability to be another princess phenomena. Zootopia didn't benefit from a great buzz before its release, Moana could become a phenomenon when it's released. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Just now, Fullbuster said: Zootopia didn't benefit from a great buzz before its release, Moana could become a phenomenon when it's released. I think Zootopia had quite a lot of buzz before its domestic debut. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, cannastop said: I think Zootopia had quite a lot of buzz before its domestic debut. I barely heard about it before it was released Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Fullbuster said: I barely heard about it before it was released Well, it did debut in France a week before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 With the US release approaching it's time for this thread to be back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CelestialFairyIX Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 If Moana doesn't break out in either Japan or China, there's a VERY LOW, SLIM chance of it passing the $1 billion mark. It is possible, would be great, but there's a very low chance of that happening. HOWEVER, it would be the icing on the cake for WDAS, so I'm rooting for another $1 billion baby for Disney! PS: The Japan figure for Frozen and China figure for Zootopia still astound me to this day. Can't possibly fathom... When Zootopia was first released I remembered I said, "If it does half as good as BH6 I would be happy," and then it goes on to do $235 million... 0_0 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 25 minutes ago, CelestialFairyIX said: If Moana doesn't break out in either Japan or China, there's a VERY LOW, SLIM chance of it passing the $1 billion mark. It is possible, would be great, but there's a very low chance of that happening. HOWEVER, it would be the icing on the cake for WDAS, so I'm rooting for another $1 billion baby for Disney! PS: The Japan figure for Frozen and China figure for Zootopia still astound me to this day. Can't possibly fathom... When Zootopia was first released I remembered I said, "If it does half as good as BH6 I would be happy," and then it goes on to do $235 million... 0_0 We should hope for $600m-700m. With the strong competition it's risky to expect more, BH6 numbers would be great and that was enough to satisfy Disney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newbie BO buff Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 boxofficepro revised their DOM long range forecast to 300 mil that is dangerously flirting with 1 bil WW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 boxofficepro revised their DOM long range forecast to 300 mil that is dangerously flirting with 1 bil WW Dangerously? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newbie BO buff Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 On 11/19/2016 at 4:34 PM, Mojoguy said: Dangerously? In light of some doubts about this movie having a shot at 1 billion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 4 minutes ago, newbie BO buff said: In light of some doubts about this movie having a shot at 1 billion. I don't really think it has a shot at all. I don't think it can replicate the Frozen frenzy and has 0% chance of even making even 1/3 of what Zootopia made in China, with FB breaking out and Your Name the following weekend having huge presales. The key would be Japan and China. China is out. And in Japan I don't think even the most optimistic prognosticators expect it to even make 1/2 of Frozen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 33 minutes ago, James said: I don't really think it has a shot at all. I don't think it can replicate the Frozen frenzy and has 0% chance of even making even 1/3 of what Zootopia made in China, with FB breaking out and Your Name the following weekend having huge presales. The key would be Japan and China. China is out. And in Japan I don't think even the most optimistic prognosticators expect it to even make 1/2 of Frozen. Moana will be huge, in the US people already cry after seeing it because it's so moving You'll see, even the Chinese won't be able to resist 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 1B WW is tough with USD being so strong. It needs perfect storm like Zoo's china run which is tough. But it will be big neverthless. Super strong reviews and disney brand is all time high should help. I would say 300m domestic and 800m+ WW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 (edited) 1 hour ago, James said: I don't really think it has a shot at all. I don't think it can replicate the Frozen frenzy and has 0% chance of even making even 1/3 of what Zootopia made in China, with FB breaking out and Your Name the following weekend having huge presales. The key would be Japan and China. China is out. And in Japan I don't think even the most optimistic prognosticators expect it to even make 1/2 of Frozen. 99% chance of not making half of Frozen in Japan. Zootopia should be the benchmark for Moana's Japan performance. Edited November 23, 2016 by cannastop 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...