2015 Awards and Precusors (PGA NOMS ON PG. 10)

[WrathOfHan]

BAFTA's Visual Effects correspondence (* means ineligible at Oscars): 

 

2014: 4/5 (Hobbit instead of Winter Soldier)

2013: 4/5 (Pacific Rim instead of Lone Ranger)

2012: 4/5 (TDKR instead of Snow White)

2011: 3/5 (Tintin* and War Horse instead of Transformers and Real Steel)

2010: 3/5 (Black Swan and Toy Story 3* instead of Iron Man 2 and Hereafter)

 

Good chance that Ant-Man or Ex Machina is swapped out for Revenant or The Walk.

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

While I'm at it, Director correspondence:

 

2014: 3/5 (Chazelle and Marsh instead of Miller and Tyldum)

2013: 4/5 (Greengrass instead of Payne)

2012: 2/5 (Affleck, Bigelow, and Tarantino instead of Russell, Spielberg, and Zeitlin)

2011: 2/5 (Alfredson, Ramsay, and Refn instead of Allen, Malick, and Payne

2010: 3/5 (Boyle and Nolan instead of the Coens and Russell)

2009: 3/5 (Blomkamp and Scherfig instead of Daniels and Reitman)

2008: 4/5 (Eastwood instead of Van Sant)

2007: 2/5 (Donnersmarck, Greengrass, and Wright instead of Gilroy, Reitman, and Schnabel)

2006: 4/5 (Dayton and Faris instead of Eastwood)

2005: 4/5 (Meirelles instead of Spielberg)

2004: 2/5 (Forster, Gondry, and Mann instead of Eastwood, Hackford, and Payne)

2003: 3/5 (Burton and Minghella instead of Eastwood and Meirelles)

2002: 4/5 (Jackson instead of Almodovar)

2001: 3/5 (Juenet and Lhurman instead of Lynch and Scott)

2000: 5/5

 

On average they get 3/5 correct and they've only missed the winner once (Clint Eastwood in 2004). 

[WrathOfHan]

Looking at those stats, Director is between Scott, McKay, and Inarritu. Given that back to back wins are extremely rare, I'm removing Inarritu from the conversation. Miller has a very small chance and McCarthy is done. I'm expecting the Oscar lineup to be:

 

Inarritu

McCarthy

McKay

Miller

Scott

 

DGA mirrors the Oscars except McCarthy is replaced by Villeneuve.

Edited January 8, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[The Panda]

Here's the average agreeance for each category

 

Film (number of BAFTA BP picks that missed an Oscar nomination)

2015 - 0

2014 - 0

2013 - 0

2012 - 2

2011 - 0

2010 - 0

So, it's very unlikely any of those 5 miss the BP nod.  Maybe Carol, but 2012 just seemed like a fluke year for this.

 

Director

2015 - 3/5 (Theory and Whiplash swapped for Imitation and Foxcatcher)

2014 - 4/5 (Phillips swapped for Nebraska)

2013 - 2/5 (Academy's director choices were a mess that year though)

2012 - 2/5

2011 - 4/5

2010 - 3/5

So we're likely losing two of their director choices.  There's not enough extra choices in contention for them to miss more than 2 this year (I think)

If they miss 1: Spielberg is replaced with McCarthy

If they miss 2: I'd say Haynes and Spielberg are replaced with McCarthy and Miller.  

 

Actor

2015 - 3/5

2014 - 4/5 (BAFTAs didn't see McConaughey)

2013 - 4/5

2012 - 4/5

2011 - 5/5

2010 - 4/5

So we can expect 1 miss here, possibly none.  And a slight chance at 2.  I'm predicting Redmayne misses.

If they miss 1: Eddie Redmayne for Steve Carell

If they miss 2: Redmayne and Fassbender for Carell and Depp

 

Actress

2015 - 4/5

2014 - 4/5

2013 - 3/5

2012 - 3/5 (Only because Bejo was supporting for Oscars)

2011 - 2/5 (Only because Steinfeld was supporting for Oscars)

2010 - 3/5

So, especially given they have tendency to put Oscar supporting Actress' into lead, we can expect two misses here.  I don't see more than that, but Vikander could possibly get in for lead, so I'll account for that

If they miss 1: Smith for one of Rampling, Blunt, Lawrence, or Theron

If they miss 2: Smith and Vikander for two of the four (Rampling, Blunt, Lawrence, or Theron)

 

 

Supporting Actor

2015 - 4/5 (Only because Carell went lead at the Oscars)

2014 - 3/5

2013 - 4/5

2012 - 3/5

2011 - 3/5 (But they flip flopped the nominee for the The Town)

2010 - 2/5

So we can expect at least two misses, especially with how crazy this category is this year (although, their picks are mine minus Ruffalo prior to this).  They could miss anywhere from none to three, although I highly doubt they miss 3.

If they miss 1: Ruffalo for Shannon

If they miss 2: Del Torro for Tremblay

If they miss 3: Bale for Stallone

 

Supporting Actress

2015 - 3/5

2014 - 4/5

2013 - 4/5

2012 - 3/5 (Only because Bejo was supporting for Oscars)

2011 - 2/5 (But Steinfeld was supporting for the Oscars)

2010 - 3/5

So we can expect 2-3 misses, especially with Vikander being put in lead.  I am expecting three (counting a Vikander switch from Machina to Danish Girl.  Although I hope I am wrong)

If they miss 2: Vikander and Walters for Vikander and Mirren

If they miss 3: Vikander, Walters, and Winslet for Vikander, Mirren, and McAdams

 

Original Screenplay

2015 - 4/5 (only because Whiplash went Adapted)

2014 - 3/5

2013 - 4/5

2012 - 3/5

2011 - 4/5

2010 - 4/5

So we can expect 1-2 misses.  I am expecting 1 miss, but I wouldn't be surprised with two

If they miss 1: The Hateful Eight for Straight Outta Compton

If they miss 2: Hateful Eight and Ex Machina for Straight Outta Compton and Sicario

 

Adapted Screenplay

2015 - 3/5 (Whiplash went adapted not original)

2014 - 4/5

2013 - 5/5

2012 - 4/5

2011 - 4/5

2010 - 5/5

Overall, the BAFTAS are extremely solid on this category.  I'd expect 1 miss, but they could be spot on

If they miss 1: Room for The Martian

 

Cinematography

2015 - 4/5

2014 - 3/5

2013 - 4/5

2012 - 4/5

2011 - 4/5

2010 - 3/5

We can most likely expect 1 miss, especially since their nominations matched with the ASC.  There's a slight chance at two

If they miss 1: Carol for The Martian

If they miss 2: Carol and Bridge of Spies for The Martian and The Hateful Eight

 

Score

2015 - 3/5

2014 - 3/5

2013 - 5/5

2012 - 4/5

2011 - 4/5

2010 - 3/5

So we can expect 1-2 misses here.  I'm predicting two, but it could just be one

If they miss 1: Sicario for Inside Out

If they miss 2: Sicario and The Revenant for Inside Out and Mad Max: Fury Road/Carol/The Danish Girl

 

Production Design

2015 - 4/5

2014 - 4/5

2013 - 4/5

2012 - 4/5

2011 - 4/5

2010 - 2/5

So we can expect 1 here (if we disregard the 2010 fluke)

If they miss 1: Carol for Cinderella/The Danish Girl/Crimson Peak

 

Costume

2015 - 3/5

2014 - 3/5

2013 - 4/5

2012 - 3/5

2011 - 3/5

2010 - 3/5

So we can expect 2 misses here (maybe 1)

If they miss 1: The Danish Girl for Star Wars

If they miss 2: The Danish Girl and Brooklyn for Star Wars and Crimson Peak

 

Make Up and Hair

2015 - 2/3 (Missed Foxcatcher, despite 5 nominees)

2014 - 0/3 (Despite having 5 nominations)

2013 - 3/3 

2012 - 2/3

2011 - 0/3

2010 - 1/3

So this category is a complete mess, due to short lists, but I two of their picks will be Oscar noms (Revenant and Mad Max)

 

Editing

2015 - 4/5 (Missed Sniper despite 6 nominees)

2014 - 4/5

2013 - 3/5

2012 - 2/5

2011 - 4/5

2010 - 4/5

So they're usually fairly consistent.  I guess they miss one based on Eddie noms, and only one spot doesn't seem like a lock

If they miss 1: Bridge of Spies for Spotlight (Eddie's should miss one as well)

 

Animated

2015 - 2/3 (two of its three nominees made the Oscars 5)

2014 - 2/3 (two of its three nominations made the Oscars 5)

2013 - 3/3

2012 - 1/3

2011 - 2/3

2010 - 3/3

So, given the BAFTAs have nominated every Minions film, I am assuming Minions doesn't get the Oscar nomination but Shaun and Inside Out do.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

On 1/7/2016 at 4:25 PM, Telemachos said:

 

Oh, you haven't seen THE REVENANT yet.

SO Tom Hardy is the Oscar chairmen and Leo is out for is revenge to get an Oscar?  At the end of film he is holding the Oscar?

[TalismanRing]

On 12/23/2015 at 1:42 PM, The Panda said:

 

Resigned because they were asked if they would have nominated it?  Sounds like a bunch of whiners.  Then again, they're critics, for many of them that's what they do for a living (some actually critique).

 

Resigned probably because it was made even more obvious that the BFCA is a joke.

[Cmasterclay]

Alright, I know the BAFTAs are a big, generally predictive show and everything, but let's chill with the "Miller is dead" talk- maybe this particular group just didn't like Mad Max. Doesn't change that he's won more than anyone this entire season. I'm not saying he's gonna win, but to say that one miss means that Miller and Mad Max are "dead" would be silly. Boyhood won everything last year.

 

Now, Brooklyn, that's a movie I thought would make it at the BAFTAs for sure. It missing here hurts it again. This was supposed to be its big day. If it wasn't for PGA, it would be an out for me for sure.

Del Toro missed everything in the first half of the season, but since like December 20th, dude has showed up in every critic group award slate, and now he has a BAFTA. Same thing for Hardy (who also has BFCA). They have big time momentum. 

[WrathOfHan]

14 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Alright, I know the BAFTAs are a big, generally predictive show and everything, but let's chill with the "Miller is dead" talk- maybe this particular group just didn't like Mad Max. Doesn't change that he's won more than anyone this entire season. I'm not saying he's gonna win, but to say that one miss means that Miller and Mad Max are "dead" would be silly. Boyhood won everything last year.

 

Now, Brooklyn, that's a movie I thought would make it at the BAFTAs for sure. It missing here hurts it again. This was supposed to be its big day. If it wasn't for PGA, it would be an out for me for sure.

Del Toro missed everything in the first half of the season, but since like December 20th, dude has showed up in every critic group award slate, and now he has a BAFTA. Same thing for Hardy (who also has BFCA). They have big time momentum. 

Miller's still highly likely to get nominated, his chances of winning are very slim.

[4815162342]

10 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Miller's still highly likely to get nominated, his chances of winning are very slim.

 

Well let's see what happens at the DGA.

[Cmasterclay]

But who is winning instead? Sure, Miller missed BAFTA, but McKay missed Globe and BFCA. Innaritu already won last year, this doesn't scream a second consecutive win. McCarthy missed BAFTA as well, and the direction of that movie, which I thought was terrific and subtle, just isn't flashy enough to win. I personally think Spies is the Berg's best movie since Saving Private Ryan, so I'm happy for it, but I've seen no evidence he's gonna take home the big prize. Haynes has shown up strong with critics groups and precusors before and then completely whiffed on the Academy- Far From Heaven being the prime example. I still see him getting a nom, but a win? Not buying that either. So that leaves....Scott?!?! Really? REALLY? Look, I liked the Martian- it was a solid adaptation of a terrific book- but absolutely nothing about Scott's direction of that movie made me say "Wow, that's a best director performance for sure." And look, I know that's just my personal assesment. But even the most laudatory notes for the movie don't praise his direction like people praise Miller. He's missed with alot of places. Sure, he's made it alot of places, too, but I just don't see the Martian having THAT much love. I'd think that the Best Director winner usually comes from a movie that has a shot to win Best Picture, and I just don't see it for the Martian (it will get nominated, that's not what I'm saying.) Scott would be the ultimate example of giving it to someone "overdue." The Academy has shown that they love technical feats in directing- Lee, Cuaron, Innaritu and the director of the Artist to an extent- and that they favor "big visions" over just a well-directed movie that they love. And what movie has that kind of vision like Mad Max? I'm not saying he'll win. But I think, in a very confused BD field, he's probably a slight favorite for me. 

[CoolioD1]

I just think mckay's gonna win cos I think big short's gonna win and they'll take him too. globes and bfca don't matter as much as bafta and dga. i'm pretty sure he's getting nommed for the latter.

[WrathOfHan]

If Scott wins, it's because of how overdue he is. That's the only reason why he's even in consideration. If he already had an Oscar he wouldn't even be in the discussion to win. I wouldn't be surprised at a McKay win though.

[Goffe]

Dude, Scott is not winning, not even sure if he will be nominated.

[WrathOfHan]

Scott's getting nominated, I have no idea why people think otherwise. He's yet to miss a major precursor and The Martian is one of the five movies locked for a BP nomination.

[Goffe]

It's a shame though.

[All about Eve - old]

The panda: why is Steve Jobs weak? Fassbender and Winslet are being considered for their performances which are two of the strongest in their respective categories. In Fassbender 's case, arguably THE strongest. So far critics and voters from bodies such as Bafta, Sags, Aacta have all had the integrity to separate the performances from the poor box office and hopefully the Academy will too.

It's only certain media and bloggers who are pushing ie effectively  campaigning for Damon's pleasant but unremarkable turn in the Martian. Same for Will Smith and Redmayne. The latter's PR team is running the ' consecutive Bafta/ Oscar' story in the UK press like it's a done deal.

It's all hype and I hope the Academy can rise above it like it did last year with Cotillard instead of Aniston.

[Joel M]

^

I think if Jobs had just undeperformed and barely made back its budget it will be a sure nomination for all the big awards except director. But it really flopped horribly both DOM and OS. People just didn't care for another Jobs movie.

[All about Eve - old]

2 hours ago, Joel M said:

^

I think if Jobs had just undeperformed and barely made back its budget it will be a sure nomination for all the big awards except director. But it really flopped horribly both DOM and OS. People just didn't care for another Jobs movie.

That's not my point. The film isn't getting any noms anywhere but Winslet and Fassbender rightly are being recognised for their performances. Voters are properly separating the great acting from a film that didn't do well.

By contrast Damon's nice but very average performance is benefitting from Martian's succes. On its own it is a performance that any decent leading man could have given. Had the film flopped he would not be in the conversation. 

It is a tribute to Winslet +Fassbender that their work shines out regardless of box office and is being recognised. 

 

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by All about Eve

[The Panda]

I'm not saying they won't get nominated, in fact, Fassbender should be in.  Winslet is the first to go in her category though.

[Alpha]

Hoping for some big surprises tomorrow for DGA Awards. I just want my boy Miller to make it in as well.

 

I'm predicting:

McKay

Miller
Inarritu

Scott

Spielberg