filmlover Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If Miller misses tomorrow then Mad Max is done for anything above the tech line. It sure does feel it's bled a lot of momentum the past few days. At first it seemed to only miss at the places where everyone knew it never ever ever had any shot of getting in at (SAG, WGA), but missing at BAFTA (which shares plenty of the same voters) was a sign of caution and then Miller not winning at the Globes when most expected him to doesn't instill much confidence. It's hard to see where the support could come from outside of Miller. But what it has working against it more than anything else isn't difficult to see: it's an apocalyptic summer blockbuster action semi-sequel. Movies like District 9 and Inception made much more sense as AMPAS-friendly "blockbuster" nominees. We can all agree that if nominated, it'll unquestionably claim the title of the most out there, most improbable-seeming Best Picture nominee ever. I watched it again (fourth time) on HBO the other night and it really is a very dark, very weird, very very violent movie. How many of movies that are all of those things have ever gotten nominated for Best Picture before (answer: 0)? Although most movies like that can only dream of getting the kind of critical acclaim this got. Ultimately, if it wasn't BAFTA's thing, it's unlikely to be the Academy's either, and if Miller misses with DGA tomorrow, then it's over and its reward will be getting this far in the race. Sorry Tele. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If Miller misses, yeah, he's done in Director. DGA has a gigantic voting base so I doubt he misses. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 1 hour ago, filmlover said: If Miller misses tomorrow then Mad Max is done for anything above the tech line. It sure does feel it's bled a lot of momentum the past few days. At first it seemed to only miss at the places where everyone knew it never ever ever had any shot of getting in at (SAG, WGA), but missing at BAFTA (which shares plenty of the same voters) was a sign of caution and then Miller not winning at the Globes when most expected him to doesn't instill much confidence. It's hard to see where the support could come from outside of Miller. But what it has working against it more than anything else isn't difficult to see: it's an apocalyptic summer blockbuster action semi-sequel. Movies like District 9 and Inception made much more sense as AMPAS-friendly "blockbuster" nominees. We can all agree that if nominated, it'll unquestionably claim the title of the most out there, most improbable-seeming Best Picture nominee ever. I watched it again (fourth time) on HBO the other night and it really is a very dark, very weird, very very violent movie. How many of movies that are all of those things have ever gotten nominated for Best Picture before (answer: 0)? Although most movies like that can only dream of getting the kind of critical acclaim this got. Ultimately, if it wasn't BAFTA's thing, it's unlikely to be the Academy's either, and if Miller misses with DGA tomorrow, then it's over and its reward will be getting this far in the race. Sorry Tele. Yeah, I basically agree with all this and said as much months ago. I am still (pleasantly) shocked MM has any real chance at all. It is soooo not what the Academy goes for, or at least before now. The DGAs will be telling. I still think it has built enough momentum to make it there and the Oscars, but as you said, man will it ever be the most unorthodox BP nominee of all time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Oh and the "experts" this year are seeming totally useless. They still have Spotlight as the far away frontrunner. In what universe is that the case? At the very best it is like in a three way tie for frontrunner, and I doubt even that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 29 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Oh and the "experts" this year are seeming totally useless. They still have Spotlight as the far away frontrunner. In what universe is that the case? At the very best it is like in a three way tie for frontrunner, and I doubt even that. Spotlight could still win SAG. The race is completely open, and it's rather exciting. But yeah, I could totally see Mad Max being a snub where everyone realizes in retrospect that the movie was probably just far outside the norm of the kind of films that typically get recognized for them to embrace it beyond techs, overwhelming critical support be damned. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: If Miller misses, yeah, he's done in Director. DGA has a gigantic voting base so I doubt he misses. DGA's voting base really only benefits if you're either well known in TV circles (like Hooper) since DGA is mostly TV or a super well respected famous director (like Spielberg). Don't think Miller will get saved by DGA at this point. I see: McKay Spielberg Scott Innaritu Haynes / McCarthy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Still going with these 5: Scott Inarritu McKay Miller Villeneuve Spielberg is the alt. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I totally wouldn't be shocked to see Bridge of Spies coming back strong on Thursday morning. The movie is total Oscar catnip. But yeah, I'm really losing faith in Miller/Mad Max (and will definitely remove them from my predictions if Miller misses tomorrow). The Martian will serve as a strong "classy" blockbuster representative nominee without any sort of trashy/controversial elements attached to it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Definitely think Mad Max is still strong. The globes didn't really set it back - it's still getting guild support. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Not as important as the big DGA noms, but CAS (Sound Mixing) nominees: Bridge of Spies The Hateful Eight Mad Max: Fury Road The Revenant Star Wars: The Force Awakens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 1 minute ago, Alpha said: Not as important as the big DGA noms, but CAS (Sound Mixing) nominees: Bridge of Spies The Hateful Eight Mad Max: Fury Road The Revenant Star Wars: The Force Awakens No SOC or Martian is a bit surprising. They didn't even nominate Whiplash last year but typically they get the winner correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 (edited) DGA NOMINATIONS: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu Tom McCarthy Adam McKay George Miller Ridley Scott DGA could go 5/5 with the Oscars this year. Edited January 12, 2016 by WrathOfHan 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 YES at Miller getting in despite the naysayers 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 WITNESS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Pretty much the expected noms. Sad Haynes is pretty much dead, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 If someone gets in, it'll be Spielberg or Villeneuve at McCarthy's expense. Scott, Inarritu, and McKay are locked and Miller is very likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 (edited) McCarthy is in as McKay, people. The only movies that have hit DGA, PGA, WGA, and SAG this year have been Spotlight and The Big Short. These two are the safest movies. Edited January 12, 2016 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Happy that Miller got in. I guess the win is between McKay, McCarthy and Scott, and since I haven't seen TBS and Spotlight it's hard for me to care much at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 56 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: DGA NOMINATIONS: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu Tom McCarthy Adam McKay George Miller Ridley Scott DGA could go 5/5 with the Oscars this year. I Could see McCarthy missing at the Oscars, but I hope not. I like that list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Right now I would argue the most likely winners of BP are in order: 1. BIG SHORT 2. REVENANT 3. SPOTLIGHT 4. MARTIAN 5. MAD MAX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
