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Star Wars The Force Awakens: Opening Weekend | Actuals In 1st Post | $247,966,675 | The Force Awoke... and it's not sleeping anytime soon | 119, 68, 60

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Even at the low end of predictions ($125M), SW7 will still set a record Thursday-preview-free Friday gross with $68M. Jurassic World owns the record with $64M. The question is whether it can break the Saturday and Sunday records set by Jurassic World ($69.6M and $57.2M).

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I may be pessimistic, but even with a $126M OD, my OW projections keep coming to around $236-240M. I think most people here don't realize that we are in the deep portion of the NFL season, so Sunday will likely have a 30+% drop. I also see it, at the very most staying flat from Friday.

 

Would love to be wrong, though. Right now I'm hoping for $250M.

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3 minutes ago, superduperm said:

I may be pessimistic, but even with a $126M OD, my OW projections keep coming to around $236-240M. I think most people here don't realize that we are in the deep portion of the NFL season, so Sunday will likely have a 30+% drop. I also see it, at the very most staying flat from Friday.

 

Would love to be wrong, though. Right now I'm hoping for $250M.

 

Avatar fell 3% on the same Sunday in 2010.  I give this a 15% drop most on Sunday.

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Hmm you know technically TFA made more money on Thursday even than any other movie did. That $57 million is good enough for an unadjusted Thursday record. The current record holder is actually Revenge of the Sith with $50 million. That's the oldest opening day record standing at over 10 years.

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6 minutes ago, superduperm said:

I may be pessimistic, but even with a $126M OD, my OW projections keep coming to around $236-240M. I think most people here don't realize that we are in the deep portion of the NFL season, so Sunday will likely have a 30+% drop. I also see it, at the very most staying flat from Friday.

 

Would love to be wrong, though. Right now I'm hoping for $250M.


I dunno if NFL will effect it that much. Kind of a weak schedule of matchups this week.

Texans vs Colts is the only notable one at 1 PM

Broncos vs Steelers is the biggest game at 4:25

Cardinals vs Eagles should be decent, but it's not huge for Sunday night showings.

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Just now, Darth Rallax said:

Disney should create a tombstone for the December Opening Weekend out of adamantium mixed with unobtanium, wrap it in mithril, dip it in gold, and encrust it in diamonds, because fuck me, I don't think that's ever going to be topped.

 

 

How long we thinking the all-time OW record this is setting  is going to stand? The record length for wide openers is what, 4 years? This may not be beaten for a decade.

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3 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:

 

Avatar fell 3% on the same Sunday in 2010.  I give this a 15% drop most on Sunday.

 

Eh, looking at past movies, up to 20% or even a couple points more is possible. With sellouts pushing some audience towards backloading, it might be closer to your 15%... but on the other hand, it's certainly possible that after burning off $200m in demand, it drops more like 20-22%.

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1 minute ago, somebody85 said:


I dunno if NFL will effect it that much. Kind of a weak schedule of matchups this week.

Texans vs Colts is the only notable one at 1 PM

Broncos vs Steelers is the biggest game at 4:25

Cardinals vs Eagles should be decent, but it's not huge for Sunday night showings.

It's a fucking awful week for games. Plenty of people will go see SW.

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3 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

 

Eh, looking at past movies, up to 20% or even a couple points more is possible. With sellouts pushing some audience towards backloading, it might be closer to your 15%... but on the other hand, it's certainly possible that after burning off $200m in demand, it drops more like 20-22%.

 

 

Hobbit fell 10% on the 23rd...point is NFL doesn't affect movies that much on Sunday's in December.  

 

15% tops...imo

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I'm already seeing scattered sellouts for Saturday. Even morning shows... 8am, 9am, 10am. A few afternoon shows here and there. A few IMAX shows. Smaller theaters like the AMC Fullerton have most of their shows sold out for the day.

 

I even saw 3am and 4am sellouts listed.

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