Tubes Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 FYI: Myself, my 6 friends, and at least 200 other people all paid $8 each to see TFA on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthWalker Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Today Jurassic world Tomorrow AVATAR. *straight up mental patient style laugh* Disclaimer: my post is merely using the classic saying of today something tomorrow something Else as a sign of what lies ahead for tfa I do not literally believe avatars record will die tomorrow that would be insane but it IS doomed 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 16 minutes ago, spizzer said: Some confusion: Those grosses don't match those percentages. 12% IMAX, but 30.1M is 12% of 250M, so it doesn't work with any of the given estimates (238 or 241-246). 7% PLF, but 15M is 7% of 214.3M. Not sure about the rest of what you wrote but BO.com says 12.6% was IMAX: http://pro.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2015-12-18-north-america-thursday-night-report-star-wars-the-force-awakens-crushes-record-with-57m-launch-into-hyperspace-pacing-for-first-100m-opening-day-in-domestic-history Would put it right at $30m for an opening of 238, and almost $31m for mid-240's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deedlit Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Just now, grey ghost said: So there's a good chance TFA could take the WW OW record from JW? Yep. Keep in mind that Jurassic World was originally reported as a $511.8M opening weekend, then was later boosted to 524.1M. So The Force Awakens could just as easily see an uptick, especially seeing as Sunday DOM appears to be underestimated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Robyn Gee Tucker @RobynJTucker 5m5 minutes ago Standing in a crazy line for @starwars 3D at @KahalaMallCtr. Is this a bad time to say that I don't even really want to see it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 14 minutes ago, grey ghost said: Okay I see low multiplier (low for winter) predictions being thrown around, between 3.1-3.4. Is there any reason to believe this will have worse legs than the first Hobbit movie. Sure, it'll have far more immediate demand. I wouldn't be surprised if it pulls a sub-3.5x multi... then again I wouldn't be surprised if it goes over that either. All bets are off. Regardless of that, AVATAR is going down. It's just a question of how much. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 14 minutes ago, noknobs said: This is a mortal lock to beat Avatar's domestic gross. Anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gokai Red Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 2 hours ago, FilmBuff said: Vader showed up at our showing last night. Which Warren is this? Because if this is Wichita, I actually work up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 (edited) 22 minutes ago, grey ghost said: Okay I see low multiplier (low for winter) predictions being thrown around, between 3.1-3.4. Is there any reason to believe this will have worse legs than the first Hobbit movie. The WOM seems damn good then you have strong reviews and fans watching it 3-6 times. Is there any eveidence that the legs will be weak or average for a winter blockbuster? I really think people are forgetting we re in uncharted territory just about everything here. The last December OW record was freaking Hobbit with "only" 85m. So expecting a movie that has burned already so much demand to have a sweet, "regular" christmas multiplier may be an error. I am a fan but I feel people here are talking more with their heart than with their mind. Doing 800m+, it s what I call going nuclear and that s very, very rare. Its top 20 all time adjusted material. Plus, the irrational hard on everybody has to beat Avatar doesn't help objectivity. So I hope FA has an fantastic run because history has taught us first Star Wars in a trilogy have historic runs but I feel lots of people are shouting victory a little but too quickly. Even Tele, which is surprising & other "wise" people in here. My second name is Debbie if you wondered. Edited December 21, 2015 by The Futurist 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Everyone agrees that I'm the wisest here and I say Avatar is going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 5 minutes ago, The Futurist said: Even Tele, which is surprising & other "wise" people in here. You should know I'm a major AVATAR supporter, right? Do the math... the numbers don't lie. Do you think a near-Christmas release with excellent reviews and solid WOM will do a sub-3.2x multiplier* through the holidays? That's the very simple question. *With a 240m OW, a 3.2 multiplier takes it to 768m. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 That being Said, Katniss is dead. This is the Rey's Age. A new Queen has awoken. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: Yeah they aren't polling 8 year olds, which means the poll doesn't account for any child ticket prices. Yeah. Also depending on how they did the poll, folks who paid on the more extreme ends of prices might be more inclined to respond/remark about em. In any case, quick ticket estimations based on: 53% 2D 28% RealD 3D 12% IMAX 7% PLF 238.0M OW 23.0M Tickets. Staying consistent with my old calculations this comes out as a higher estimate than TDK/SM3 (low 22M) and TA (high 21M). Age splits for TA/TDK were near 50/50. Age split for SM3 was 63% under 25, while TFA is 33% under 25, so that imbalance may equal them out (if I assume 50% of under 25 audience paid for children's tickets, SM3 is at 23.7M, TFA is at 23.9M). If it goes up to 245M with the same splits, attendance estimate goes up to 23.7M tickets, same children price assumption would put it up to 24.6M. If it goes up to 250M, same splits get it to 24.2M tickets, and child price adjustment gets it to 25.1M. If I estimate based on the grosses they provided: 114.9M 2D 78.0M RealD 3D 30.1M IMAX 15.0M PLF 238.0M OW 22.6M Tickets. Still highest estimate I'd have on record. With 245M (121.9M 2D, everything else the same) I get 23.4M. With 250M (126.9M 2D) I get 24.0M. Sometime soon I'm also planning on making a PLF price adjustment. There's a very clear argument in my mind to be made that the PLF average price has gone down as the format has grown in popularity/screen count. A lot of theaters have simply refitted some of their screens to create their own in-house PLF brand and the prices on those aren't nearly as relatively high as specialty premium formats were ~3-4 years ago when they started to become a thing. This should boost more recent blockbusters a bit ITO ticket sales. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 22 minutes ago, IMojammer said: Not sure about the rest of what you wrote but BO.com says 12.6% was IMAX: http://pro.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2015-12-18-north-america-thursday-night-report-star-wars-the-force-awakens-crushes-record-with-57m-launch-into-hyperspace-pacing-for-first-100m-opening-day-in-domestic-history Would put it right at $30m for an opening of 238, and almost $31m for mid-240's Cool. We'll keep an eye on any adjustments made tomorrow once actuals are released and I'll update all my estimates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted December 21, 2015 Author Share Posted December 21, 2015 1AM EST update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 (edited) 45 minutes ago, noknobs said: This is a mortal lock to beat Avatar's domestic gross. Anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves. It's really close to being locked, but I think there is probably still just the smallest chance it doesn't. I mean I HIGHLY doubt it myself (I'm still not throwing in the towel on 1b), but I would have liked the OW to be about 5-10m higher just in case, since I feel a 3.0x multi is the absolute worst case scenario for legs. 254 with a 3x multi would beat Avatar. Edited December 21, 2015 by MovieMan89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 18 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said: You should know I'm a major AVATAR supporter, right? Do the math... the numbers don't lie. Do you think a near-Christmas release with excellent reviews and solid WOM will do a sub-3.2x multiplier* through the holidays? That's the very simple question. *With a 240m OW, a 3.2 multiplier takes it to 768m. The maths are pretty simple and I know a fairly "weak" multiplier sends already FA quite high. I am merely saying every movie has a limited reservoir and we don't know the size of the tank. But yeah, everything points to a historic run. Go JJ ! I am not sure there s even 10 Avatar apologists on this board, I sense so much passional hatred towards the blue people, its weird really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 yes Avatar is going down. This is a great thing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 2 hours ago, Rth said: I think im being to conservative stay tuned..for now think have to expect high end at least Man, you're such tease. Hopefully, the wait is worth it #61M. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 2 minutes ago, The Futurist said: The maths are pretty simple and I know a fairly "weak" multiplier sends already FA quite high. I am merely saying every movie has a limited reservoir and we don't know the size of the tank. But yeah, everything points to a historic run. Go JJ ! I am not sure there s even 10 Avatar apologists on this board, I sense so much passional hatred towards the blue people, its weird really. A lot on this board like Avatar actually, but no you won't find many fanboys of it if that's what you mean. Except you know who... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
