Star Wars Tuesday - 37.3M (Tele/baumer bet for Wednesday drop is on page 24...much to learn one of them still has)

[terrestrial]

BOM updated their SW 7 weekday guess

 

Monday: $40.1 M (33.76% drop) / $288.1 M (actual)

Tuesday: $37.4 M (6.85% drop) / $325.4 M (actual)
——- Wed-Sun projections based on Avatar first week dailies ——-

Wednesday: $38.2 M (2.23% increase) / $363.6 M

Thursday: $25.9 M (32.19% drop) / $389.5 M

Friday: $53.6 M (107.11% increase) / $443.2 M

Saturday: $65.7 M (22.43% increase) / $508.8 M

Sunday: $56.3 M (14.24% drop) / $565.2 M ($175.6 M weekend)

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

13 minutes ago, misterchief81 said:

Isn't Disney adding an "Avatar Land" to their Animal Kingdom theme park in Florida? It presents an interesting conflict. They have a vested interest in Avatar sequels doing well, to help promote their Avatar rides/attractions, while at the same time, hoping Fox doesn't do too well with them, and outstrip the success of their Star Wars and Marvel films.

I don't think they care too much. It's all $ in their pocket. It's not like the Avatar sequels are going to directly hurt Disney's tentpoles, since neither Fox nor Disney is scheduling Star Wars (or a particularly big Marvel film) head to head against Avatar.

Edited December 23, 2015 by Jayhawk the Hutt

[LinksterAC]

7 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

BOM updated their SW 7 weekday guess

 

Monday: $40.1 M (33.76% drop) / $288.1 M (actual)

Tuesday: $37.4 M (6.85% drop) / $325.4 M (actual)
——- Wed-Sun projections based on Avatar first week dailies ——-

Wednesday: $38.2 M (2.23% increase) / $363.6 M

Thursday: $25.9 M (32.19% drop) / $389.5 M

Friday: $53.6 M (107.11% increase) / $443.2 M

Saturday: $65.7 M (22.43% increase) / $508.8 M

Sunday: $56.3 M (14.24% drop) / $565.2 M ($175.6 M weekend)

That kind of Wednesday drop is pretty much impossible. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

7 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

BOM updated their SW 7 weekday guess

 

Monday: $40.1 M (33.76% drop) / $288.1 M (actual)

Tuesday: $37.4 M (6.85% drop) / $325.4 M (actual)
——- Wed-Sun projections based on Avatar first week dailies ——-

Wednesday: $38.2 M (2.23% increase) / $363.6 M

Thursday: $25.9 M (32.19% drop) / $389.5 M

Friday: $53.6 M (107.11% increase) / $443.2 M

Saturday: $65.7 M (22.43% increase) / $508.8 M

Sunday: $56.3 M (14.24% drop) / $565.2 M ($175.6 M weekend)

Realistically what do you think the chances of this happening are? I'm modeling $33.8 million today, $21.4 million Thursday and $135 million for the weekend.

[#ED]

28 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

For those who doubt the 1 billion possibility, here is SW versus AVATAR+32% (basically, 1 billion):

 

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS			AVATAR + 32 %
Daily	% Drop	Cume	Daily	Cume	DAILY DIFF	CUME DIFF
57,000,000		57,000,000	4,884,000	4,884,000	52,116,000	52,116,000
62,119,282	8.98%	119,119,282	30,428,771	35,312,771	31,690,511	83,806,511
68,294,204	9.94%	187,413,486	33,698,328	69,011,098	34,595,876	118,402,388
60,553,189	-11.33%	247,966,675	32,662,537	101,673,635	27,890,652	146,293,040
40,109,742	-33.76%	288,076,417	21,629,282	123,302,917	18,480,460	164,773,500
37,361,729	-6.85%	325,438,146	21,234,129	144,537,046	16,127,600	180,901,100

 

I don't think it's right to compare to Avatar until we get a full week of numbers. I get that it's really the only comparison, but there's a big difference in $$$ here.

[Ozymandias]

21 minutes ago, Darth AndyLL said:

 

When 59 years old you reach, look as good, you will not.

 

I'm drop dead georgeous and at that age I'll be a grey fox.

[baumer]

So many arbitrary box office numbers here.....and opinions.....as others have said.... you have to paint the whole picture not just part of it. In other words don't just take half the stats to make your opinion seem logical.

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Realistically what do you think the chances of this happening are? I'm modeling $33.8 million today, $21.4 million Thursday and $135 million for the weekend.

 

I am into analyzing the ww market since the '90, never was into predictions (hence the reason the Derby isn't something for me), started to look into US dom not that long ago for other reasons a bit more closely than before....

But if I ould guess, I'd guess VERY conservatively, better be way under than even a bit over.

 

In general I think as long as we have not enough numbers to see where the spill-over ends and where the WOM might kick in, what the weather report says.... it's way variable anyway. But I enjoy all your estimates and reasonings (of the ones who stay respectul to the other POVs)

[terrestrial]

trying again w/o format

Edited December 23, 2015 by terrestrial

[terrestrial]

 

 

BY DAY OF WEEK | BY DAY NUMBER

DAY	Avengers	Jurrasic World	Avatar	SW 7	Titanic
WEEK 1
Fri	$80,813,985 - / - $80,813,985 / 1	$81,953,950 - / - $81,953,950 / 1	$26,752,099 - / - $26,752,099 / 1	$119,119,282 - / - $119,119,282 / 1	$8,658,814 - / - $8,658,814 / 1
Sat	$69,557,990 -13.9% / - $150,371,975 / 2	$69,644,830 -15% / - $151,598,780 / 2	$25,529,036 -4.6% / - $52,281,135 / 2	$68,294,204 -42.7% / - $187,413,486 / 2	$10,672,013 +23.3% / - $19,330,827 / 2
Sun	$57,066,733 -18% / - $207,438,708 / 3	$57,207,490 -17.9% / - $208,806,270 / 3	$24,744,346 -3.1% / - $77,025,481 / 3	$60,553,189 -11.3% / - $247,966,675 / 3	$9,307,304 -12.8% / - $28,638,131 / 3
ADVERTISEMENT (scroll to continue with chart)
Mon	$18,898,999 -66.9% / - $226,337,707 / 4	$25,344,820 -55.7% / - $234,151,090 / 4	$16,385,820 -33.8% / - $93,411,301 / 4	$40,109,742 -33.8% / - $288,076,417 / 4	$5,578,212 -40.1% / - $34,216,343 / 4
Tue	$17,677,190 -6.5% / - $244,014,897 / 5	$24,342,515 -4% / - $258,493,605 / 5	$16,086,461 -1.8% / - $109,497,762 / 5	$37,361,729 -6.9% / - $325,438,146 / 5	$6,003,119 +7.6% / - $40,219,462 / 5
Wed	$13,612,910 -23% / - $257,627,807 / 6	$19,895,470 -18.3% / - $278,389,075 / 6	$16,445,291 +2.2% / - $125,943,053 / 6	-	$3,571,345 -40.5% / - $43,790,807 / 6
Thu	$12,391,566 -9% / - $270,019,373 / 7	$17,822,580 -10.4% / - $296,211,655 / 7	$11,150,998 -32.2% / - $137,094,051 / 7	-	$9,178,529 +157% / - $52,969,336 / 7
WK 1	$270,019,373	$296,211,625	$137,094,001	-	$52,969,336

[GiantCALBears]

33 minutes ago, Darth AndyLL said:

 

When 59 years old you reach, look as good, you will not.

 

What about 800 years Yoda?

[terrestrial]

5 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

 

What about 800 years Yoda?

 

looked better than we will looking in our graves

[terrestrial]

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice

Sony is offering free tickets to NFL players to go see CONCUSSION--How about High School football players and their families instead...?

[Dementeleus]

26 minutes ago, #ED2-D2 said:

 

I don't think it's right to compare to Avatar until we get a full week of numbers. I get that it's really the only comparison, but there's a big difference in $$$ here.

 

I'm not comparing it to AVATAR. I'm comparing it to AVATAR+32%.  

[stuart360]

I just realized, TFA has made more in its first 5 days than AOTC made it its entire run.

Thats pretty ridiculous lol, dat prequel effect.

[Empire]

1 hour ago, Sagemode87 said:

That's nice, and I get that most people in this thread hates on better movies like Avatar and JW. What now?  

JW a better movie than TFA.......

 

[terrestrial]

Wow, parts of the US seem to have really bad weather (soon). Too long and too OT = spoiler tags

 

Hopefully no one gets stuck anywhere

 

http://www.weather.gov/

 

Spoiler

• Holiday storm in the West offers a contrast to warmth in East
• Winter weather advisories and warning cover parts of 11 states

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

 

Share on LinkedInShare on RedditShare on Google+E-mail

Floods, avalanches and snow storms are all on nature’s holiday gift-giving list for the western U.S. as more storms pour in off the Pacific.

On Tuesday, parts of 11 western states were dotted with flood and avalanche warnings, wind advisories and numerous winter weather outlooks.

Because the National Weather Service uses a full palate of colors to designate trouble, the map looked like Jackson Pollock had a hand in decorating it.

 

“It is rather unsettled out West,” said Michael Musher, a meteorologist at the U.S. Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. “It is going to remain unsettled through Christmas.”

With temperatures forecast to reach into the 70s from New York to Virginia this week, the West stands in stark contrast to those spring-like conditions. Throughout the mountains of Oregon, Washington and California, snow was forecast to fall by the foot through Thursday, the National Weather Service said.

Parts of Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming, including Yellowstone National Park, are covered by avalanche warnings.

Further west, snow could become an issue for travelers. While rain is forecast for Seattle, snow could pile up in the passes leading from the city, said Dan Kottlowski, a meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.

 

“People will have to use chains to get out of Seattle,” Kottlowski said.

 

Flood Watches

Where the snow isn’t falling, the rain is and that has caused a number of areas in central California to be covered by flash flood watches. “The severely burned areas near Yosemite will be of particular concern,” the weather service said.

As a result, the ground can’t absorb any more water, so the runoff could bring rocks and debris down onto roads.

Even with the floods, like many other storms that have swept through the West, this won’t be the drought buster for California, which is in its fourth year of dry conditions. While the mountains of California have been picking up snow, they’re still behind what would be considered normal, Kottlowski said.

California needs heavy snows to build up over winter’s course in order to meet its water needs in the spring and summer. The snow acts like a bank, storing winter water up in the mountains until it melts in the warmer months.

Ease Drought

On top of that, many of this year’s storms have lost much of their power by the time they get to California. Still, the systems have helped ease drought conditions in the Pacific Northwest, Kottlowski said.

Three months ago, all of Washington was covered by some form of drought. Last week, it had dropped to a shade more than 48 percent, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor in Lincoln, Nebraska.

Seattle has received about 23 inches (58 centimeters) of rain since Oct. 1, or more than 9.5 inches above normal, the weather service said. The eastern part of the state is still dry and rain and snow is still lagging in many places.

For the rest of the holiday week, Washington and its neighbors will be tightly gripped by winter, even as the eastern U.S. gets a taste of spring, at least in terms of temperatures.

 

 

[lilmac]

Sooooo many people are waiting until the holidays to see TFA. The next 2 weeks will be insane.

[GiantCALBears]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Wow, parts of the US seem to have really bad weather (soon). Too long and too OT = spoiler tags

 

Hopefully no one gets stuck anywhere

 

http://www.weather.gov/

 

  Reveal hidden contents

• Holiday storm in the West offers a contrast to warmth in East
• Winter weather advisories and warning cover parts of 11 states

Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

 

Share on LinkedInShare on RedditShare on Google+E-mail

Floods, avalanches and snow storms are all on nature’s holiday gift-giving list for the western U.S. as more storms pour in off the Pacific.

On Tuesday, parts of 11 western states were dotted with flood and avalanche warnings, wind advisories and numerous winter weather outlooks.

Because the National Weather Service uses a full palate of colors to designate trouble, the map looked like Jackson Pollock had a hand in decorating it.

 

“It is rather unsettled out West,” said Michael Musher, a meteorologist at the U.S. Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. “It is going to remain unsettled through Christmas.”

With temperatures forecast to reach into the 70s from New York to Virginia this week, the West stands in stark contrast to those spring-like conditions. Throughout the mountains of Oregon, Washington and California, snow was forecast to fall by the foot through Thursday, the National Weather Service said.

Parts of Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming, including Yellowstone National Park, are covered by avalanche warnings.

Further west, snow could become an issue for travelers. While rain is forecast for Seattle, snow could pile up in the passes leading from the city, said Dan Kottlowski, a meteorologist at AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.

 

“People will have to use chains to get out of Seattle,” Kottlowski said.

 

Flood Watches

Where the snow isn’t falling, the rain is and that has caused a number of areas in central California to be covered by flash flood watches. “The severely burned areas near Yosemite will be of particular concern,” the weather service said.

As a result, the ground can’t absorb any more water, so the runoff could bring rocks and debris down onto roads.

Even with the floods, like many other storms that have swept through the West, this won’t be the drought buster for California, which is in its fourth year of dry conditions. While the mountains of California have been picking up snow, they’re still behind what would be considered normal, Kottlowski said.

California needs heavy snows to build up over winter’s course in order to meet its water needs in the spring and summer. The snow acts like a bank, storing winter water up in the mountains until it melts in the warmer months.

Ease Drought

On top of that, many of this year’s storms have lost much of their power by the time they get to California. Still, the systems have helped ease drought conditions in the Pacific Northwest, Kottlowski said.

Three months ago, all of Washington was covered by some form of drought. Last week, it had dropped to a shade more than 48 percent, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor in Lincoln, Nebraska.

Seattle has received about 23 inches (58 centimeters) of rain since Oct. 1, or more than 9.5 inches above normal, the weather service said. The eastern part of the state is still dry and rain and snow is still lagging in many places.

For the rest of the holiday week, Washington and its neighbors will be tightly gripped by winter, even as the eastern U.S. gets a taste of spring, at least in terms of temperatures.

 

 

 

East coast is going to see 70*. This winter is very mild so far nationally overall due to El Niño.

[DAR]

Weather will be just fine here in Brew City