spizzer Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 16 minutes ago, Rth said: The challenge of the day is another record is in play pending evenings going well later we shall tell wat I'm going to assume matinees are around 15M and regular evenings would be another 15M. Muted evenings as expected would be 9-12M and we're looking at mid 20s for Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyLL Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 2 minutes ago, CJ Ren said: Not really. He says it will depend on the evenings. The evenings will be crap. We know that. He knows that also. I assume he's saying the evenings won't be as crap as normal. Damn.... I'll be up late again tonight. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 25, 2015 Author Share Posted December 25, 2015 13 minutes ago, Darth AndyLL said: He knows that also. I assume he's saying the evenings won't be as crap as normal. Damn.... I'll be up late again tonight. Gotta wait for Santa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 31 minutes ago, Rth said: The challenge of the day is another record is in play pending evenings going well later we shall tell 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyLL Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 1 minute ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said: Gotta wait for Santa. This is likely closer to the truth... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 18 minutes ago, Darth AndyLL said: He knows that also. I assume he's saying the evenings won't be as crap as normal. Damn.... I'll be up late again tonight. Same here. The power of Rth's tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harpospoke Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 5 hours ago, Dark 33Legend of the Sith said: I remember when the release date was announced, most of the consensus was to be very conservative on the OW (110-140 range) but the legs and weekdays would the stuff of box office legend. But it opened more massively than anything in history by far, and the legs are better than anything we could've expected even with conservative OW predictions. Unfathomable. There is no ceiling at this point. Wait a minute there buddy... I've seen a couple of people posting that all this was expected and shouldn't be a big surprise. So what's all this "omg!", "insanity!", and "unfathomable!" stuff? 10 hours ago, stuart360 said: All this exchange rate and adgusted crap is pretty low guys. Do you honestly think Titanic would of made over a billion domestic if it released today?, Gone With The Wind 3 billion domestic , Doctor 'fucking' Zhivago etc?. This forum is usually pretty level headed when it comes to this kind of stuff but the forum has been crap the last few days. once the big fanboy film comes out, people have lost all sense of perspective and will now try anything to get that the film to the top, so to speak. The fanboy factor works both ways. Almost no one takes into account the negative factors the older movies had to deal with (lower population, less screens, more competition, little ww potential) That also causes people to do the "time travel" thing in a way that only benefits newer movies. Here you say that GWTW and Dr Zhivago would not make what they made if released today....That's true. But now lets look at it both ways...how much would SW7 make if released in 1939? Don't forget to do the time travel thing correctly. SW7 gets 1939 FX. You're looking at Buck Rogers numbers. i.e....it would be the short film shown before GWTW and no one would ever talk about it today. Every single one of the monster box office movies rose above the rest during their time and should be admired for that feat. For instance, if what GWTW did was easy...then how come none of the other films released during that time did it? When you look at the all time adjusted list, only two movies from the 30s make the top 200. It looks like this: 20s-1 30s-2 40s-7 50-12 60s-19 70s-27 80s-28 90s-34 00s-45 10s-25 It's obviously easier to make the list as time goes on and harder for an older film to make the top 200 adjusted list. So this hardly indicates that older films had an advantage at the box office. The opposite is true. Given that...GWTW remains the most impressive box office run ever in my mind. It not only beat the odds to make the top 200 adjusted list...it came out on top. 3 hours ago, Orestes said: The Empire Strikes Back is widely considered to be not only the best Star Wars movie, but one of the best movies of all time. It still decreased massively from A New Hope. Same could be said for Superman 2 and Spiderman 2. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orestes Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 1 minute ago, Harpospoke said: Same could be said for Superman 2 and Spiderman 2. Nah, nobody could say either of those two are the best Star Wars movies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 29 minutes ago, Sagemode87 said: What's boring about this thread is that it seems possible. This movie seems to have everyone hypnotized to see it and it's nothing special or groundbreaking. I don't know if fanboys are watching it 20 times or if it's actually attracting viewers that other movies just don't get. You'd think the US population doubled or something. Don't get why it's basically doing Hunger Games CF numbers in a single week, but whatever. Seems like there's no slowing down which is asinine during this time of year. I love this post simply because it's been said about every single box office phenomenon I've seen in the 19 years I've been tracking BO as a hobby. You're absolutely right in what you're implying. There's no good reason this movie should be shattering records. It must be some collective delusion. It always is. Just like it was for Titanic, The Avengers, Jurassic World, Avatar... 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 From what I can tell, its been splitting 20M/20M for matinees/evenings for the past 3 days (give or take a couple mill up/down of course). Today without Christmas Eve would keep that pace, maybe like 18-19M/18-19M, 36-38M overall. With Christmas Eve (keeping folks at home) but without the evening theater closings should have been 15M/15M for ~30M overall. With Christmas Eve and evening theater closings I would then expect 15M/8-10M for 22-25M overall. What it sounds like Rth is suggesting is that matinees ended up being higher, close to 20M like Mon-Wed, so even with depressed evenings of 7-10M, we could get close to 30M and the non-opening record. That bodes well for Friday; evening/late-night demand will once again be near all-time highs. Possibly another ~20M Matinees/~40M Evenings split like last Friday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 No #s yet? That's ok, I'll be here getting shitfaced at my grandparents house waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuart360 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 4 hours ago, Orestes said: The Empire Strikes Back is widely considered to be not only the best Star Wars movie, but one of the best movies of all time. It still decreased massively from A New Hope. It actually didn't. ANH made 220mil on its initial run, Empire made 209mil on its initial run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 16 hours ago, Darth AndyLL said: Star Wars is bringing in a lot of new members. I joined the forum as a lurker during The Avengers run. I started posting during Frozen's run. I also want to mention that we have a strict spoiler policy on the forums... even stricter for TFA. Please read the 'Guidelines' at on the main menu. And of course... it's required encouraged to play to Derby http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20793-the-official-box-office-theory-derby-announcement-thread/ I named my trivia team last night "Darth Vader is Luke's Dad" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tubes Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Updated Avatar Run: The actual percentage drops day to day for TFA are disturbingly close to Avatar's. We might get more $30 million weekdays from it next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 39 minutes ago, CJ Ren said: WHAT THE FUCK. THE NON-OPENING THURSDAY RECORD IS 29.1M! Evenings will suck badly, that we know. So I am guessing something around 25M will indeed happen. I'm sure he is taking that into consideration. Many showtime til 9 Evening will suck. That's why it'll be down 20-25% and not up again Today is like Xmas w/o the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 4 minutes ago, Jayhawk the Hutt said: No #s yet? That's ok, I'll be here getting shitfaced at my grandparents house waiting. That seems that kinda sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 (edited) 4 minutes ago, CJ Ren said: That seems that kinda sucks Nah it's all good. It's a Christmas tradition. It's how I cope with my shitty extended family. Edited December 25, 2015 by Jayhawk the Hutt 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 51 minutes ago, Rth said: The challenge of the day is another record is in play pending evenings going well later we shall tell Oh! Big gooberfish! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 8 minutes ago, Tubes said: Updated Avatar Run: The actual percentage drops day to day for TFA are disturbingly close to Avatar's. We might get more $30 million weekdays from it next week. I have been extremely optimistic since day 1. But I gotta believe the burn off has to kick in next week but yes above 30m weekdays are looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 4 minutes ago, Jayhawk the Hutt said: Nah it's all good. It's a Christmas tradition. It's how I cope with my shitty extended family. The majestic Star Wars numbers will make it all better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
