upprdeck Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 31 minutes ago, mikeymichael said: There's no way TFA grosses less than 90m this weekend. I see 34.4 -- 35.2 -- 23.6 = 93.2 i dont know how places are doing Sat, but our local theater said they are dramatically busier today than what they had fri. sold out every show from noon to 4 with huge lines of people waiting. they said triple the business from what they say friday. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 (edited) Food for thought: For the sake of argument, let's say Episode VII lands at $1B (personally, I think it goes a little higher, close to $1.1B). Attack of the Clones earned 72% of TPM's gross. ROTS about 88%. If Episode VIII and IX perform similarly, we'd be looking at domestic hauls of $720M and $880M. And why not think they will? TFA's critical and public reception is orders of magnitude better than TPM's. Just goes to show this franchise's power in the USA. All three movies are likely candidates to challenge Avatar's number. Edited January 3, 2016 by LinksterAC 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upprdeck Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 21 minutes ago, TServo2049 said: All the claims that Star Wars made $307m in original release are wrong. That includes the 1978, 1979 and 1981 re-releases. It actually made $221.3m in its true first run, and $43.8m from the summer 1978 re-release. The first run adjusts to $827.6m or $854.4m, depending on whether I calculate based on BOM's 2015 adjuster or their 2016 adjuster. I have no idea what the yearly average will come out to be - averaging those two values comes out to $841m, and using BOM's current Q4 2015 guesstimate of $8.61 to get a rough 2015 guesstimate of $8.41 gives us $834.6m. That does seem low for how huge SW was, though the U.S. population was lower then. But there's a twist: I know people who do not consider the 1978 re-release a true re-release, but an extension of the first run, since the film was never out of theaters completely (at least one theater's engagement ran continuously through both releases). If you add the $43.8m of the 1978 "re-release" adjusted for inflation, you either get $1.016 billion at $8.61, or $983.7m at $8.34. Those two numbers average out to almost exactly $1 billion. Either way, I wonder if the 2009-present NATO yearly averages don't produce accurate adjustments/estimated admissions for heavy 3D/IMAX/PLF releases whose true average paid price would be higher than the official NATO average for the entire theatrical market. No matter how well TFA does, I just cannot bring myself to believe it will end with more tickets sold than the original, either including or excluding the 1978 reissue (especially not including), even with 38 years of population growth. Not from all I know about how ridiculously huge the movie was. redfirebird2008, are you still around? one thing that is far different today is the number of shows you can watch a movie in today.. star wars sold out for 20+ weeks in my city.. there were 2 shows a day and 4 on a weekend for almost 30 weeks. many people i knew never saw it because they couldnt. back then no one drove beyond the closet local movieplex to see a movie. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Welcome, @upprdeck! Glad to have you participating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 12 minutes ago, upprdeck said: i dont know how places are doing Sat, but our local theater said they are dramatically busier today than what they had fri. sold out every show from noon to 4 with huge lines of people waiting. they said triple the business from what they say friday. Good stuff. I can sense....one half portion increase. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marek the Jedi Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 21 minutes ago, junkshop36 said: I think it will increase 2.5% today. Take that Avatar!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TServo2049 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Another thing that shows how freaking huge the first movie was. U.S. population was 220.24 million in 1977, compared to 322.07 million today. Heck, let's throw in Canada since it's counted toward the domestic market - add 23.73 million. 1977 population of USA+CAN was 243.97 million. If we look the original run not including the 1978 re-release, $221.3m, estimated 99.24 million tickets, that means it sold a ticket for every 2.5 people in North America. Let's add the 1978 "re-release" - especially assuming that yes, there were people seeing it for the first time then. The average NA population during that 1977-78 period comes out to 245.25 million. So take 118 million tickets total over both releases, and there was a ticket sold for every 2 people in North America. Mind-blowing, even factoring in repeat business. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Did the Revenant go wide this weekend? If it did, what did it make for Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 (edited) Rth! Why hast thou forsaken us? Edited January 3, 2016 by grey ghost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A District 3 Engineer Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 1 minute ago, grey ghost said: Did the Revenant go wide this weekend? If it did, what did it make for Friday? It didn't, it will go wide next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveJaros Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 (edited) 11 minutes ago, TServo2049 said: Another thing that shows how freaking huge the first movie was. U.S. population was 220.24 million in 1977, compared to 322.07 million today. Heck, let's throw in Canada since it's counted toward the domestic market - add 23.73 million. 1977 population of USA+CAN was 243.97 million. If we look the original run not including the 1978 re-release, $221.3m, estimated 99.24 million tickets, that means it sold a ticket for every 2.5 people in North America. Let's add the 1978 "re-release" - especially assuming that yes, there were people seeing it for the first time then. The average NA population during that 1977-78 period comes out to 245.25 million. So take 118 million tickets total over both releases, and there was a ticket sold for every 2 people in North America. Mind-blowing, even factoring in repeat business. I remember the initial release of Star Wars and I can assure you that it was the biggest movie of my experience, which goes back to 1974. Regardless of what the numbers say, in terms of sheer first-run cultural dominance, the biggest movies of the past 40 years are: 1) Star Wars 2) ET 3) Titanic 4) Jaws And that's also what is singular about Titanic: It is the only movie in the past 30+ years that had the kind of run and cultural dominance that put it in the same class with Star Wars/Jaws/ET. Nothing else, not even Avatar, has been in the class. And within that class, Star Wars (1977) was the clear #1. Edited January 3, 2016 by SteveJaros 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, SteveJaros said: I remember the initial release of Star Wars and I can assure you that it was the biggest movie of my experience, which goes back to 1974. Regardless of what the numbers say, in terms of sheer first-run cultural dominance, the biggest movies of the past 40 years are: 1) Star Wars 2) ET 3) Titanic 4) Jaws And that's also what is singular about Titanic: It is the only movie in the past 30+ years that had the kind of run and cultural dominance that put it in the same class with Star Wars/Jaws/ET. Nothing else, not even Avatar, has been in the class. And within that class, Star Wars (1977) was the clear #1. Until now, right? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daxtreme Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, SteveJaros said: I remember the initial release of Star Wars and I can assure you that it was the biggest movie of my experience, which goes back to 1974. Regardless of what the numbers say, in terms of sheer first-run cultural dominance, the biggest movies of the past 40 years are: 1) Star Wars 2) ET 3) Titanic 4) Jaws And that's also what is singular about Titanic: It is the only movie in the past 30+ years that had the kind of run and cultural dominance that put it in the same class with Star Wars/Jaws/ET. Nothing else, not even Avatar, has been in the class. And within that class, Star Wars (1977) was the clear #1. Indeed, what's happening right now with TFA is the direct product of this cultural phenomenon that was Star Wars in 1977. It made this all possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Just now, LinksterAC said: Until now, right? ;-) No, I think the original SW run stands on its own, except for maybe the ongoing steady drawing power of GWTW. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, SteveJaros said: I remember the initial release of Star Wars and I can assure you that it was the biggest movie of my experience, which goes back to 1974. Regardless of what the numbers say, in terms of sheer first-run cultural dominance, the biggest movies of the past 40 years are: 1) Star Wars 2) ET 3) Titanic 4) Jaws And that's also what is singular about Titanic: It is the only movie in the past 30+ years that had the kind of run and cultural dominance that put it in the same class with Star Wars/Jaws/ET. Nothing else, not even Avatar, has been in the class. And within that class, Star Wars (1977) was the clear #1. But that Avatar WW run tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Tsk tsk, grey ghost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said: No, I think the original SW run stands on its own, except for maybe the ongoing steady drawing power of GWTW. Yeah, but I think TFA is in the same conversation as the other four Jaros mentioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, grey ghost said: But that Avatar WW run tho... Do you wanna get banned, son? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 (edited) 29 minutes ago, TServo2049 said: Another thing that shows how freaking huge the first movie was. U.S. population was 220.24 million in 1977, compared to 322.07 million today. Heck, let's throw in Canada since it's counted toward the domestic market - add 23.73 million. 1977 population of USA+CAN was 243.97 million. If we look the original run not including the 1978 re-release, $221.3m, estimated 99.24 million tickets, that means it sold a ticket for every 2.5 people in North America. Let's add the 1978 "re-release" - especially assuming that yes, there were people seeing it for the first time then. The average NA population during that 1977-78 period comes out to 245.25 million. So take 118 million tickets total over both releases, and there was a ticket sold for every 2 people in North America. Mind-blowing, even factoring in repeat business. I thought about this earlier today after looking at ANH's adjusted numbers and tried doing the math in my head. TFA is still mighty impressive when adjusting for population. Alot of those first run dollars, I believe, are through 1977 but also 1978 and 1979. Also you didn't have blu-ray and pirating which eats away at boxoffice receipts. It's a testament to the staying power of the SW brand. Boxoffice $ is just a portion of the money that's being made off of TFA. Can you imagine the leverage KK has with tv/streaming services not to mention merchandise?? Edited January 3, 2016 by lilmac 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, CJohn said: Do you wanna get banned, son? That escalated quickly. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
