GiantCALBears Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 In fact it's very possible it may not even hit $90m this weekend. I think $91m is more likely but that depends on today staying flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXRDJisDoctorDoom Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 11 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said: That was the only day in the last 10 that TFA SLIGHTLY outperformed Avatar (difference of 1.8%) then had a much better New Year's (difference of 21.2%). Clearly this was inevitable & TFA is performing at a much higher level. True, but my point is outliers happen that don't follow the trend. I say today will come in at least $2 million higher than yesterday, so the increase will be at least 5.8% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 32 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said: Why would anything tops? Clearly 1-2% is the upper lim it unless it has a truly amazing day. Because movies dont always follow patterns. So antthing Could happen 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said: Because movies dont always follow patterns. So antthing Could happen Anything couldn't happen but whatever you say, thanks for chiming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said: Because movies dont always follow patterns. So antthing Could happen Agree, and that is, was makes it so interesting (to me) Only bcs I am curious: how many pages did you mods have to move or delete after the 'discussions'? I guess that was a lot of work as long as this thread was closed!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 SW has kinda been following its own path. So if it has a 10% bump today it wouldn't surprise me. Then again if it stays flat that wouldn't surprise me either. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 And it looks like Avatar will fall on Tuesday. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilmBuff Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Happy birthday Baumer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 (edited) Article at THR. 1/2/2016 3:01pm PST More or less only about adjusted results of the other Star Wars movies... http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-force-awakens-flying-851439 Edited January 2, 2016 by terrestrial 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 19 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said: And it looks like Avatar will fall on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Daddy's Home having quite the run. It looks like it might actually get close to 150. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeCee Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 44 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said: And it looks like Avatar will fall on Tuesday. Avatar might be out of reach in Australia now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeymichael Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 There's no way TFA grosses less than 90m this weekend. I see 34.4 -- 35.2 -- 23.6 = 93.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chaos Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Everything would be so much easier, if admissions where counted instead of money - but thats not happening cos there would not be any records anymore. A 100mio 3rd weekend would have been awesome but also not happening .. could be close though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TServo2049 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 (edited) All the claims that Star Wars (it wasn't called A New Hope I'm 1977 so I will never use that to refer to its original run) made $307m in original release are wrong. That includes the 1978, 1979 and 1981 re-releases. It actually made $221.3m in its true first run, and $43.8m from the summer 1978 re-release. The first run adjusts to $827.6m or $854.4m, depending on whether I calculate based on BOM's 2015 adjuster or their 2016 adjuster. I have no idea what the yearly average will come out to be - averaging those two values comes out to $841m, and using BOM's current Q4 2015 guesstimate of $8.61 to get a rough 2015 guesstimate of $8.41 gives us $834.6m. That does seem low for how huge SW was, though the U.S. population was lower then. But there's a twist: I know people who do not consider the 1978 re-release a true re-release, but an extension of the first run, since the film was never out of theaters completely (at least one theater's engagement ran continuously through both releases). If you add the $43.8m of the 1978 "re-release" adjusted for inflation, you either get $1.016 billion at $8.61, or $983.7m at $8.34. Those two numbers average out to almost exactly $1 billion. Either way, I wonder if the 2009-present NATO yearly averages don't produce accurate adjustments/estimated admissions for heavy 3D/IMAX/PLF releases whose true average paid price would be higher than the official NATO average for the entire theatrical market. No matter how well TFA does, I just cannot bring myself to believe it will end with more tickets sold than the original, either including or excluding the 1978 reissue (especially not including), even with 38 years of population growth. Not from all I know about how ridiculously huge the movie was. Even though I just said $307m wasn't the actual first-run gross, from the prices I've been paying I do still wonder if it would still be best to compare against a ballpark of $1.2 billion for SW's original run. If you take the $221.3m divided by the official 1977 average of $2.23, that's 99.24 million tickets. If you take the $43.8m and divide it by the 1978 average of $2.34, you get another 18.72 million tickets. The total of both runs would be 117.96 million admissions. If you assume the entire $265.1m up to the end of the 1978 reissue would be equivalent to TFA making $1.2b, then the theoretical average ticket price it would be adjusted to would be $10.17. But if you assume just the $221.3m of the original run would be the same as TFA making $1.2b, then the theoretical average paid price for TFA would be $12.09. So let's say TFA does in fact hit $1b. That would mean it would need to sell 98.3m tickets at an average of $10.17, or 82.7m tickets at an average of $12.09. Either way, if it gets to $1b I am convinced it will be doing it off of fewer admissions than we would assume off of whatever the 2015 national average turns out to be. redfirebird2008, are you still around? Can you weigh in? Edited January 3, 2016 by TServo2049 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilmBuff Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Saw Joy, My Gawd that movie was dull and lifeless. Could hardly make it through it without sleeping. Huge miss after a trio of great movies from David O. Russell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Drove an hour and a half to see the Big Short. Now I'm driving an hour and a half back home. Worth. It. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 1 hour ago, GiantCALBears said: Why should this have a better hold than Avatar when it's obvious the declines have already been diverging? 5% makes no sense. I think it will increase 2.5% today. Take that Avatar!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, DAJK said: Drove an hour and a half to see the Big Short. Now I'm driving an hour and a half back home. Worth. It. My favourite film of the year, that and sicario with Mexican Brad Pitt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinksterAC Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 11 minutes ago, TServo2049 said: All the claims that Star Wars made $307m in original release are wrong. That includes the 1978, 1979 and 1981 re-releases. It actually made $221.3m in its true first run, and $43.8m from the summer 1978 re-release. The first run adjusts to $827.6m or $854.4m, depending on whether I calculate based on BOM's 2015 adjuster or their 2016 adjuster. I have no idea what the yearly average will come out to be - averaging those two values comes out to $841m, and using BOM's current Q4 2015 guesstimate of $8.61 to get a rough 2015 guesstimate of $8.41 gives us $834.6m. That does seem low for how huge SW was, though the U.S. population was lower then. But there's a twist: I know people who do not consider the 1978 re-release a true re-release, but an extension of the first run, since the film was never out of theaters completely (at least one theater's engagement ran continuously through both releases). If you add the $43.8m of the 1978 "re-release" adjusted for inflation, you either get $1.016 billion at $8.61, or $983.7m at $8.34. Those two numbers average out to almost exactly $1 billion. Either way, I wonder if the 2009-present NATO yearly averages don't produce accurate adjustments/estimated admissions for heavy 3D/IMAX/PLF releases whose true average paid price would be higher than the official NATO average for the entire theatrical market. No matter how well TFA does, I just cannot bring myself to believe it will end with more tickets sold than the original, either including or excluding the 1978 reissue (especially not including), even with 38 years of population growth. Not from all I know about how ridiculously huge the movie was. redfirebird2008, are you still around? Wasn't alive for Star Wars 77. Biggest BO smash I've seen in my life was Titanic--until now. And clearly this movie is on that level. Adjusted for inflation SW7 will be on Titanic's level, and will crack the all time Top Ten Adjusted for Inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
