Tuesday : TFA $7,967,428 #ED was Asleep at the Wheel(He's sicky-poo)

[kitik]

40 minutes ago, #ED said:

So everything last year dropped 25% or more on the first Wednesday after the holidays while everything in 2009 dropped around 10%. Hmm.

 

14 minutes ago, Darth Rallax said:

 

Discount Tuesday in 2009 wasn't as popular as it is today, thereby there wasn't much of a Tuesday increase nor the resulting Wednesday drop.

 

So expect a bigger drop on Wednesday, should be somewhere in the 6.0-6.5 range. Maybe even the high 5's if there is a really bad storm that prevents some parts of the country from going out.

[tokila]

this drop was very important. It shows it has reach a stabilization point quickly. Also means we have a pretty good shot at 30mil midweek. JW only had 27.5 in the summer same week. 

 

 

[The Panda]

I'm still hoping it pushes for 50m this week.

[23IsEverywhere]

5 minutes ago, kitik said:

 

So expect a bigger drop on Wednesday, should be somewhere in the 6.0-6.5 range. Maybe even the high 5's if there is a really bad storm that prevents some parts of the country from going out.

The storms in So Cal shouldn't hurt the box office to bad, it is supposed to be similar to today's storm or a little weaker, so other than some extra car crashes, nothing too serious (except in the mountains) I could see people heading to the shows for something to do indoors.

 

It should be over 50 million, if Wednesday is around $6.5m.  It looks probable but Wednesday numbers would make me more confident. 

[BATMOOSEMIKE]

I really hope this can break 50M this weekend.

8M on tuesday is great, although so far this week it's 1 million lower than my projections.

[JonathanLB]

Regal - the biggest chain - does discount Tuesday but not at every theater. Mine is downtown so no discounts for us  

 

Our storm hit Saturday and weather has been stable since but the cold means the ice hasn't gone away completely since then. 

 

I just texted my GF this, still shaking a bit speaking of weather lol: "Scariest driving experience of my life weather-wise. I hit nothing but black ice up to Skyline and had to drive middle of the road while sliding at 20 Mph. Then Skyline was a bit better but still scary. When I got to my dads gate, I started a completely uncontrolled slide from 50 feet away to 10 feet when the brakes finally caught. I decided to park the car at the top of the hill and walk it [1/4 mile with backpack and bag] Then I hugged the edge so I wasn't on the black ice but nearly fell maybe 5 times before finally the trees forced me to cross the road half way down the hill and I slipped and fell on my left side and slid 20 feet at least before I came to a stop. Then I decided to slide the next 30 feet to be safe because I couldn't stand up. After the hill I nearly fell 5 more times on the dips but I finally made it. I figured I may fall so I was prepared for if I do, just slide into it and don't put an arm or hand out to break the fall. My hand is a bit sore from scraping it but otherwise no issues. Phew. I think that was one of the best driving performances of my life though lol"

 

I came up to my dads because he's gone and my GF has to sleep early so I figured beer and movies for me tonight but I had no clue they had ice up here. Downtown it's totally fine and melted but I forget he is 5-7 degrees colder up here. It was sheets of black ice on the roads. The worst.

[MasterDodsen]

1 minute ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

At this point, I don't care what this movie makes anymore.. It beat AVATAR Domestic and that's really all I care about and so should you folks...

Still, getting a billion would be pretty sweet. Already 3/4 of the way there.

[tokila]

Now at a 3.26 OW multiplier. Yay. 

[Ozymandias]

a billion would look pretty damn sweet on BOM's all time domestic chart... having that extra digit would make it stand out so much more

[JonathanLB]

3 minutes ago, tokila said:

Now at a 3.26 OW multiplier. Yay. 

 

I have 3.05... ? 758 divided by 247.8 right?

[druv10]

3 minutes ago, tokila said:

Now at a 3.26 OW multiplier. Yay. 

3.056 multi.

[tokila]

5 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

 

I have 3.05... ? 758 divided by 247.8 right?

Your right, what I mean was percent of total gross like they show on BOM page. 

which is done by 247/758

 

saying same thing a different way. At 33.3% OW gross is = to 3X multiplier

Edited January 6, 2016 by tokila

[druv10]

2 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

a billion would look pretty damn sweet on BOM's all time domestic chart... having that extra digit would make it stand out so much more

 

Yep, it could have the spotlight for 10-15 years maybe even longer. 

[JonathanLB]

Oh yeah! I still can't get over the crazy numbers. Almost any producer or studio would kill to have a $475M movie and this movie will likely double that. Stupid money.

[tokila]

2 minutes ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

 

It's going to have this anyway whether it makes a Billion or not.. It is OFFICIALLY The All Time Box Office Champ and still climbing.. Beating AVATAR was the goal.. Mission ACCOMPLISHED..

yep. We came up with the 1 billion goal post to keep up the suspense with each BO daily we get. After that 40 million 1st monday Avatar was a foregone conclusion and even the doubter put it in the lock column after is actually went up 1st tuesday to 1st wednesday. 

[XXR vs XXR]

How many years will TFA last as domestic champ?

$900 million - 7 years

$1 billion - 10 years

$1.1 billion - 13 years 
 

[Fake]

For the rest of the week:

 

WED: 6.5 (-19%)

THU: 6.0 (-8%)

 

FRI: 13.5 (+125%)

SAT: 22.5 (+67%)

SUN: 14.0 (-38%)

 

WKND: 50M!!

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

2 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Go see SW TFA Wednesday and you can claim to push it over for the historic moment , save your stub

[druv10]

Avatar+32% buffer is currently at 273M+. 

[tokila]

38 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

How many years will TFA last as domestic champ?

$900 million - 7 years

$1 billion - 10 years

$1.1 billion - 13 years 
 

well, I guess you never know for sure, I mean when SW broke the record in 77 I am sure people thought that would stand for a very very long time. But the late 70s brought very high inflation in 5-6 year ET took it out.

 

So lets assume stable inflation. Avatar broke Titanic by 160 million, 900 million would be a slightly less number, however if not for Star Wars Avatar's record would have stood for probably at least 5-6 years. The Avengers which wa the culmination of a half a decade of highly popular movies came 140 million short. JW which was a nostalgic beast off one of the most popular movies ever still came 110 million short. I cant think of any announced movie over next few years that could have beaten Avatar (you never know I guess). So I think that TFA beat Avatar well before "inflation caught up with it" like Avatar did to Titanic. 

 

If you think about it, it was 2012 before a non-Cameron film finally made over 600 mil. Another thing that makes me think that movies are not ready to regularly even target 600m (unless they are a very special case like TA and JW) is because we still only have one film in the 500 range. Once 500 becomes a multiple times a year deal we will see 1 or 2 times a year a 600mil. We only have 11 films in the 400 mil range that did not take multiple releases to get there. So 400 is still a super hard barrier, let alone 500. 600 still takes a perfect storm type deal (Cameron and SW operate by a different set of rules)

 

To me 900 million should hold for over 10 years. 

1 billion could last for 15. 

 

All this assuming we maintain the low inflation we have seen the past decade+. (not the 10% per year crap of the late 70s). 

 

Onlything I wont rule out is James Cameron. Even though I think he will see some sequel decline, I never doubt the man to turn expectations on their heads. If Avatar 2 does not do it. Nothing will for at least 10 years. And that is just simply for 900 million. Or ET 2 (dejavu)

Edited January 6, 2016 by tokila