Jake Gittes Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 Rylance had 28 minutes or so iirc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 I think the problem is that aside from Ali and Bridges, everybody that's a contender in this category doesn't feel that strong. Shannon might get shut out if the Academy simply does not care at all for Nocturnal Animals (which, after seeing the movie, is highly possible), plus his role in the film is awfully similar to Bridges in Hell or High Water (it's the year of the Texas cop, apparently). The supporting actors in Fences might cancel each other out or make no impact. The Moonlight guys that aren't Ali aren't happening. Dev Patel in Lion seems like category fraud at its most blatant. Very, very few teenage males have ever received nominations, so the odds aren't exactly in Lucas Hedges' favor. Neeson's role in Silence could end up being nothing to get excited about. Past snubs like Daniel Bruhl probably would've been a lock in this field. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 22 minutes ago, filmlover said: I think the problem is that aside from Ali and Bridges, everybody that's a contender in this category doesn't feel that strong. Shannon might get shut out if the Academy simply does not care at all for Nocturnal Animals (which, after seeing the movie, is highly possible), plus his role in the film is awfully similar to Bridges in Hell or High Water (it's the year of the Texas cop, apparently). The supporting actors in Fences might cancel each other out or make no impact. The Moonlight guys that aren't Ali aren't happening. Dev Patel in Lion seems like category fraud at its most blatant. Very, very few teenage males have ever received nominations, so the odds aren't exactly in Lucas Hedges' favor. Neeson's role in Silence could end up being nothing to get excited about. Past snubs like Daniel Bruhl probably would've been a lock in this field. Under this scenario, John Goodman? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 21, 2016 Share Posted November 21, 2016 4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: Under this scenario, John Goodman? He honestly really needs the critics to come to bat for him to happen (for 10 Cloverfield Lane, no one from Patriots' Day is going anywhere). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 1 hour ago, filmlover said: He honestly really needs the critics to come to bat for him to happen (for 10 Cloverfield Lane, no one from Patriots' Day is going anywhere). That and Paramount actually giving him a campaign worth a damn. Still would be a pretty damn long shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 (edited) 5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: IDK if Ali will win if his role is as short as everyone says it is. Nearly all of the actors' roles in Moonlight are short. I think they might want to focus on the actor who made the first impression. Edited November 22, 2016 by cannastop Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) Liam Nesson (Silence) Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) J.K. Simmons (La La Land) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 6 minutes ago, mahnamahna said: Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) Liam Nesson (Silence) Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) J.K. Simmons (La La Land) JK Simmons has a very minor role in La La Land, he won't be getting nominated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Yeah, Simmons in La La Land is basically a cameo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The reviews are coming in for Silence and it sounds like Neeson's role is definitely nothing to get excited about. So, who replaces him now? This category is so thin this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Ali, Bridges and Hedges all seem pretty safe. The other two spots I guess will be between Shannon, Goodman (for Patriot's Day), Foster, and someone from Fences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 If Foster also hits SAG and Golden Globes then he too is a lock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 hours ago, filmlover said: The reviews are coming in for Silence and it sounds like Neeson's role is definitely nothing to get excited about. So, who replaces him now? This category is so thin this year. I know a Japanese actor from Silence was getting pretty good notices, but I guess one non-English speaker (Huppert) is enough for AMPAS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, 4815162342 said: I know a Japanese actor from Silence was getting pretty good notices, but I guess one non-English speaker (Huppert) is enough for AMPAS Issey Ogata. The category is so thin that being in a Best Picture nominee (which this most certainly will be) might be enough to push an unknown (in the US) actor in (and in the process, possibly becoming the movie's sole acting nomination, since I'm confident Garfield's getting in for Hacksaw instead). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Would love to see Shannon make it in. Nocturnal Animals isn't fantastic, but Shannon was great throughout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 Just now, MrPink said: Would love to see Shannon make it in. Nocturnal Animals isn't fantastic, but Shannon was great throughout. I'd like to see him make it in but I'm concerned that 1) the Academy just won't go for the movie at all and 2) his recent political statements will turn a significant portion of voters off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted December 11, 2016 Share Posted December 11, 2016 1 minute ago, filmlover said: I'd like to see him make it in but I'm concerned that 1) the Academy just won't go for the movie at all and 2) his recent political statements will turn a significant portion of voters off. Yeah the first piece is why I think he won't make it in, but since it's thin enough, perhaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Is there any doubt that the Oscar is going to Mahershala Ali? I'm 95% certain he'll win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, cannastop said: Is there any doubt that the Oscar is going to Mahershala Ali? I'm 95% certain he'll win. I think it's a guarantee at this point. This category is so dead that for a while everyone had Liam Neeson as their default winner until everyone saw the movie and it became apparent he won't even be nominated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The Golden Globes had some surprises in this category! Simon Helberg for Florence Foster Jenkins and Aaron Taylor Johnson for Nocturnal Animals! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...