Monday Numbers: 4.60 M ZOOTOPIA | 2.09 M 10 CLOVERFIELD LANE | 1.18 M DEADPOOL

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

That's a great #. This is probably the biggest week for spring break around the country, so it should continue to have great weekdays. It probably won't have a huge jump on the weekend, but we are talking a drop at or sub-30% anyways. Almost didn't recognize Rich because of his avatar change.

[cannastop]

12 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

That's a great #. This is probably the biggest week for spring break around the country, so it should continue to have great weekdays. It probably won't have a huge jump on the weekend, but we are talking a drop at or sub-30% anyways. Almost didn't recognize Rich because of his avatar change.

Are you sure this is the biggest week for Spring break? Some systems go on break in April, after all.

[narniadis]

       te$t

[narniadis]

@cannastop you need to research how spring break works. Zoo will be lucky to go up by 80% let alone 100% on Friday . 

[Chaz]

The biggest Spring Break is the week of Easter. That's when most schools in most districts are out.

[StarSaber]

9 minutes ago, Chaz said:

The biggest Spring Break is the week of Easter. That's when most schools in most districts are out.

March 27th. March 21st and March 28th will be the big Spring Break weeks.

[Jim Shorts]

5 hours ago, RichWS said:

 

Come on. You know full well spring breaks are different everywhere and there's a greater percentage on break this week. This looks to be a 1.4-1.5% increase from last Monday and Lorax dropped only 1.7%. It's a terrific number but I fail to see how it's "monumental".

 

And there will be an even greater percentage of elementary to high school students on spring break next week and the week after.  I expect strong weekdays for at least the next 2 weeks.

[narniadis]

Strong weekdays yes but that leads to smaller weekend increases which is what some of us are trying to get the newbies to understand. 

 

Grosses will be very good but you can't compare a non school Friday with a school Friday. 

[Jim Shorts]

2 hours ago, Jayhawk said:

That's a great #. This is probably the biggest week for spring break around the country, so it should continue to have great weekdays. It probably won't have a huge jump on the weekend, but we are talking a drop at or sub-30% anyways. Almost didn't recognize Rich because of his avatar change.

 

According to projected crowd reports for Disneyland, next week is the busiest week of the year, so I'm assuming more kids will be on spring break next week.  And I'm going to be right smack in the middle of it on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  God help me! 

 

*yes, i'm basing my guess on disneyland projected visitors, but most families travel on spring break, so it would make sense. 

[Jim Shorts]

10 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Strong weekdays yes but that leads to smaller weekend increases which is what some of us are trying to get the newbies to understand. 

 

Grosses will be very good but you can't compare a non school Friday with a school Friday. 

 

Then again, this is the only family movie around, and WOM has been strong.  Anything over $35m this weekend would be awesome. 

[Poseidon]

2 hours ago, efialtes76 said:

In 2010 only 1 movie increased more than 100% on Friday..

 

The compareable weekend would be the Friday 26th, 2010. 
A lot of movies jumped by moren than 100%.
Where do you get your number from? 

I think 2013 would be a good year to compare, with easter being on March 29th.
The compareable weekend would be march 22nd, and Oz the great and Poweful jumped by 118% on friday and another 73% on saturday. 

So following that movie over the week from now, Zootopia would go like this:

Tue: 5,2m
Wed: 4,3m

Thur: 4,1m
Fri: 9m

Sat: 15,5m
Sund: 11,5m


 

[StarSaber]

21 minutes ago, Jim Shorts said:

 

According to projected crowd reports for Disneyland, next week is the busiest week of the year, so I'm assuming more kids will be on spring break next week.  And I'm going to be right smack in the middle of it on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  God help me! 

 

*yes, i'm basing my guess on disneyland projected visitors, but most families travel on spring break, so it would make sense. 

You can find the numbers on BOM too. Just look for the Monday (for an animated movie) that is only down 20-ish percent from Sunday. That is usually the day after Easter. That day this year is March 28th. The day after Easter. The Friday of that week will have a weak increase.

 

The prior Week (March 21st) will see stronger Monday holds and a weaker Friday increase but not as big as Easter week.

 

I'm sure some schools are out this week but this week should be more normal. Friday should be up about 80-110%, similar to Lorax/Cinderella and some others and have 70-ish percent increase on Saturday.

 

Some animated movies are hard to compare. Rio, Home, The Croods, How to Train your Dragon all opened on the weekend before Easter. It's rarely on Easter weekend, its on the weekend before. Studio (Fox at least) plans for those 2 weeks of no school.

Edited March 15, 2016 by StarSaber

[Chaz]

36 minutes ago, StarSaber said:

March 27th. March 21st and March 28th will be the big Spring Break weeks.

My kids are out from March 24 - April 3.

[efialtes76]

3 hours ago, cannastop said:

What are you talking about? Last Friday, Zootopia jumped to $12.1 million from a Thursday of $3.9 million.

Same date in 2010...

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2010-03-19&p=.htm

 

 

Edited March 15, 2016 by efialtes76

[narniadis]

1 hour ago, Poseidon said:

The compareable weekend would be the Friday 26th, 2010. 
A lot of movies jumped by moren than 100%.
Where do you get your number from? 

I think 2013 would be a good year to compare, with easter being on March 29th.
The compareable weekend would be march 22nd, and Oz the great and Poweful jumped by 118% on friday and another 73% on saturday. 

So following that movie over the week from now, Zootopia would go like this:

Tue: 5,2m
Wed: 4,3m

Thur: 4,1m
Fri: 9m

Sat: 15,5m
Sund: 11,5m


 

 

Thanks Poseidon that is a very good comparison. I will also look later to see what Lorax did this weekend since Zoo had a similar Friday this past weekend. 

[cannastop]

39 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Same date in 2010...

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2010-03-19&p=.htm

 

 

I think you cherry-picked that. I found some examples that set a better precedent for Zootopia.

 

Quote

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2015-03-20&p=.htm

Rank*	Title	Friday 3/20	Saturday 3/21	Sunday 3/22
1	THE DIVERGENT SERIES: INSURGENT Lionsgate/Summit 3,875	$21,146,942 -- / $5,457 $21,146,942 / 1	$19,686,052 -6.9% / $5,080 $40,832,994 / 2	$11,430,686 -41.9% / $2,950 $52,263,680 / 3
2	CINDERELLA (2015) Buena Vista 3,848	$9,473,713 +111.9% / $2,462 $97,022,847 / 8	$15,287,500 +61.4% / $3,973 $112,310,347 / 9	$10,206,446 -33.2% / $2,652 $122,516,793 / 10

Quote

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2014-03-21&p=.htm

Rank*	Title	Friday 3/21	Saturday 3/22	Sunday 3/23
1	DIVERGENT Lionsgate/Summit 3,936	$22,784,019 -- / $5,789 $22,784,019 / 1	$19,853,462 -12.9% / $5,044 $42,637,481 / 2	$11,970,266 -39.7% / $3,041 $54,607,747 / 3
2	MUPPETS MOST WANTED Buena Vista 3,194	$4,662,265 -- / $1,460 $4,662,265 / 1	$7,139,311 +53.1% / $2,235 $11,801,576 / 2	$5,203,550 -27.1% / $1,629 $17,005,126 / 3
3	GOD'S NOT DEAD Freestyle Releasing 780	$2,802,085 -- / $3,592 $2,802,085 / 1	$3,310,990 +18.2% / $4,245 $6,113,075 / 2	$3,103,938 -6.3% / $3,979 $9,217,013 / 3
4	MR. PEABODY & SHERMAN Fox 3,607	$2,720,472 +140% / $754 $72,022,856 / 15	$5,304,068 +95% / $1,470 $77,326,924 / 16	$3,808,018 -28.2% / $1,056 $81,134,942 / 17

Quote

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2013-03-22&p=.htm

Rank*	Title	Friday 3/22	Saturday 3/23	Sunday 3/24
1	THE CROODS Fox 4,046	$11,645,354 -- / $2,878 $11,645,354 / 1	$18,980,862 +63% / $4,691 $30,626,216 / 2	$13,013,520 -31.4% / $3,216 $43,639,736 / 3
2	OLYMPUS HAS FALLEN FilmDistrict 3,098	$10,062,141 -- / $3,248 $10,062,141 / 1	$12,411,049 +23.3% / $4,006 $22,473,190 / 2	$7,900,604 -36.3% / $2,550 $30,373,794 / 3
3	OZ THE GREAT AND POWERFUL Buena Vista 3,805	$5,637,056 +118.3% / $1,481 $161,165,189 / 15	$9,744,250 +72.9% / $2,561 $170,909,439 / 16	$6,187,651 -36.5% / $1,626 $177,097,090 / 17
4	THE CALL TriStar 2,507	$2,673,485 +142.6% / $1,066 $24,877,606 / 8	$3,921,976 +46.7% / $1,564 $28,799,582 / 9	$2,305,474 -41.2% / $920 $31,105,056 / 10

 

[Murgatroyd]

2 hours ago, narniadis said:

@cannastop you need to research how spring break works. Zoo will be lucky to go up by 80% let alone 100% on Friday . 

 

The direct comparison here is Rango, which on Monday, March 14, 2011 (its 11th day of release) had a drop of 67.4% putting it slightly above its first Monday. On Friday, March 18, it went up by 106.5%.

 

On Monday, March 14, 2016 (its 11th day of release), Zootopia had a drop of 72.2% putting it slightly above its first Monday. I predict a Friday increase around 100-110%.

Edited March 16, 2016 by Murgatroyd
Miscalculated something.

[RichWS]

Rango is the shit. I once watched it three times in a week.

[BadAtGender]

18 minutes ago, Murgatroyd said:

 

The direct comparison here is Rango, which on Monday, March 14, 2011 (its 11th day of release) had a drop of 67.4% putting it slightly above its first Monday. On Friday, March 18, it went up by 106.5%.

 

On Monday, March 14, 2016 (its 11th day of release), Zootopia had a drop of 72.2% putting it slightly above its first Monday. I predict a Friday increase around 100-110%.

 

I could see it getting a slightly better Friday jump than Rango, but perhaps below Peabody & Sherman. This is mostly due to age demographics. Zootopia seems to be skewing slightly older than normal family animation fare, but probably isn't quite as old as Rango.

 

So maybe 110-120%.

 

 

[narniadis]

I concede my faulty memory, so 110% may be in order but even if it maintains it 1% advantage over the week that only translates into about 8.3m on Friday (Also remember it loses IMAX screens to Allegiant.)

 

Also - I think y'all are missing the obvious - The Lorax is the best comparison (time of year, longer distance to Easter, similar Spring Break Patterns, close enough OW, etc.) It's increase / decrease pattern doesn't favor huge numbers though so some are ignoring it.

 

And even using the Lorax pattern (which has it up significantly week to week) translates to a weekend around 32.5m very very respectable.

 

You can't rely on films like Ice Age or MVA (even the 2010 year is suspect) because the Tuesday/Wednesday Pattern is different now and Thursday evening previews skew the numbers and you should NOT be using non-animated films as your comparison (Oz / Cindi etc) because they don't behave the same way REGARDLESS of the time of year. (note that weekend 6 was the highest Friday increase for both Oz & Cindy before lower theater drops / increases made the numbers wonky.) AND for our newer members if you want to see how the March-early April Friday patterns work choose a film from the last couple of years and look at the whole picture on MOJO, you will notice that the 3-5th weekends have successive Friday to Friday lower increases then week 6 (for a film opening the first or 2nd weekend of march) goes back to "normal."

 

I'm not being contrarian and I really don't have a dog in this discussion other than seeing the box office do well, but I hate to see the information misused or misinterpreted. (Lorax also gives a good picture of the "split" spring break pattern with 97% - 128% and then 98% increases respectively on weeks 3,4,5.)