Stewart Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 1 minute ago, fmpro said: That Saturday number is just unbeliveble. I know we talk alot about OD but saturday is 70% of OD without any holiday. Thats just... WOW That is a even more impressive number than OD IMO I'm feeling that the Saturday could be even bigger than Friday, due to the abnormally high presales. Assuming it can get the showtimes, it may actually increase Sat 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 31 minutes ago, feasby007 said: I'm feeling that the Saturday could be even bigger than Friday, due to the abnormally high presales. Assuming it can get the showtimes, it may actually increase Sat FF8 bumped 17% with 18%(187k) more shows on saturday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 1 minute ago, POTUS said: FF8 bumped 17% with 18%(187k) more shows on saturday But MH2 dropped 170m and DC2 dropped a little. Red Sea increased ~20m, but that wasn't expected to be so highly rated. Just with the increased frontloadedness of these movies, I don't want to expect an increase, because then it probably won't happen. Also I know CNY isn't quite the best comparison since going to the movies on CNY itself is a tradition for China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 43 minutes ago, feasby007 said: But MH2 dropped 170m and DC2 dropped a little. Red Sea increased ~20m, but that wasn't expected to be so highly rated. Just with the increased frontloadedness of these movies, I don't want to expect an increase, because then it probably won't happen. Also I know CNY isn't quite the best comparison since going to the movies on CNY itself is a tradition for China. MH2 was a holiday start, not a workday Friday. Generally there is burn off the second day, MH2 wasnt well received and really dropped Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted May 8, 2018 Author Share Posted May 8, 2018 (edited) Some were worried that this Sat being 10th anniversary of Sichuan Earthquake may hurt IW's performance , but man Saturday presales are even busier than OD at the moment.. Edited May 8, 2018 by Proxima Olive 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mad Titan Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said: Some were worried that this Sat being 10th anniversary may hurt IW's performance , but man Saturday presales are even busier than OD at the moment.. What do you think that means for the weekend? It's pretty unusual yes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 9 hours ago, The Mad Titan said: And for reference, IW is over 1.05 million on “want to see”. Do do we have any idea what the record is for that? I assume it’s IW but what about next closest? How big is this? Someone please convert it into the Ranger Solo scale so I can understand better. Like 100xRanger Solo for example. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebeccas Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 Apparently Ranger Solo is at like 2k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, Rebeccas said: Apparently Ranger Solo is at like 2k 4K now. Very big. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mad Titan Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 17 minutes ago, Sam said: How big is this? Someone please convert it into the Ranger Solo scale so I can understand better. Like 100xRanger Solo for example. So roughly 250x Ranger Solo. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said: 4K now. Very big. I was going to say “wow, if it can keep doubling every few days like this it will overtake IW in no time.” Then I realized that it would actually be below IW even after 8 doublings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 13 hours ago, ZeeSoh said: Infinity War (3 days out) Midnight - 22.67 OD - 88.6 (+18.13%)(112,737 screens) Sat - 61.3 Sun - 26.6 Better than expected increase for today. Very strong evening and night increases because it was not looking it would hit even 15% during the day. 12k screens were added today which helped with the increase. More screens will be added tomorrow which should help see an acceleration in presales Saturday continues to look very strong as well and has been increasing more than opening day. With better than expected increase today it can increase a bit less tomorrow and still be on track. I am still expecting around 200m PS OD. Nearly 200M combined presales for OW!! Has to be a record 3 days out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 OW Pre-Sale Record Monster Hunt 2 - ¥367M The Fate of the Furious - ¥325M Detective Chinatown - ¥238M Avengers: Infinity War - ¥214M (58 hours before opening) Transformers 5 - ¥201M 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: OW Pre-Sale Record Monster Hunt 2 - ¥367M The Fate of the Furious - ¥325M Detective Chinatown - ¥238M Avengers: Infinity War - ¥214M (58 hours before opening) Transformers 5 - ¥201M IW going to finish at 450m 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HouseOfTheSun Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 3 hours ago, Proxima Olive said: Some were worried that this Sat being 10th anniversary of Sichuan Earthquake may hurt IW's performance , but man Saturday presales are even busier than OD at the moment.. Is it because of too much demand on OD? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: OW Pre-Sale Record Monster Hunt 2 - ¥367M The Fate of the Furious - ¥325M Detective Chinatown - ¥238M Avengers: Infinity War - ¥214M (58 hours before opening) Transformers 5 - ¥201M Eyeballing POTUS’s charts, it looks like presales often approximately double from the 58 hours before point. Does that mean we’re looking at low-mid 400s for IW? Edit: Lol, my timing. That’s could be as much as +40% from FF8, crazy. Edited May 8, 2018 by Thanos Legion Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HouseOfTheSun Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, POTUS said: IW going to finish at 450m I’m hoping for 3.5B for final performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, POTUS said: IW going to finish at 450m Presumably when you break the presales record by that much you get saddled with a worse presales multi as a consequence, but it really seems like the DOM OW figure could get topped if things continue going well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said: Presumably when you break the presales record by that much you get saddled with a worse presales multi as a consequence, but it really seems like the DOM OW figure could get topped if things continue going well. That happened to us with FF8. we thought the PS multi should've been at least 3 since most movies were 3.3 to 4 and a 500m OD was thought to happen. So its set to 2.5 this time like FF8. It is possible it could be 2.25 but I'm counting on 20% more PS along with 20% more shows, same saturation. AoU had bigger Friday and Saturday bumps than FF7 during their runs. I believe it skews younger. We could see Saturday bump better than FF8s 18%, Sat PS suggest that. We will have a firm grip on the weekend at 1300 on Friday. For now PS a little stronger than projected. Running over 1m per hour, PS should reach 105 tonight. OW weekend raised to $249m JttW2 WC FF8 IW PS 1am OD %gain MN %gain PS % gain MN %gain OD gain % gain MN %gain OD gain %gain Shows Sa 12.7 9.2 8.8 2.5 9.0 14.0% 18.5 3.1 26.5% 59.2 Su 16.9 32.7% 11.0 19.6% 12.0 37.1% 5.4 2.9 116.0% 10.1 13.2% 22.3 3.8 20.7% 63.0 Mo 19.4 14.9% 13.0 18.2% 14.8 23.3% 8.3 2.9 53.7% 11.0 8.5% 25.6 3.3 14.6% 66.0 Tu 22.1 14.2% 14.9 14.6% 17.0 14.9% 11.4 3.1 37.3% 11.9 8.2% 29.0 3.4 13.5% 69.7 We 25.5 15.3% 16.0 7.4% 20.0 17.6% 5.0 14.5 3.1 27.2% 12.8 7.6% 33.7 4.7 16.2% 72.8 Th 29.1 14.1% 18.1 13.1% 23.0 15.0% 6.4 28.0% 19.5 5.0 34.5% 15.0 17.2% 43.1 9.4 27.9% 79.7 Fr 33.3 14.4% 19.6 8.3% 27.0 17.4% 8.0 25.0% 24.6 5.1 26.2% 16.6 10.7% 50.4 7.3 16.9% 86.9 Sa 38.4 15.3% 21.8 11.2% 31.5 16.7% 9.8 22.5% 33.0 8.4 34.1% 17.9 7.8% 58.2 7.8 15.5% 93.1 Su 44.0 14.6% 22.5 3.2% 35.9 14.0% 11.3 15.3% 39.6 6.6 20.0% 19.3 7.8% 65.8 7.6 13.1% 97.0 Mo 51.0 15.9% 23.4 4.0% 40.8 13.6% 13.6 20.4% 48.0 8.4 21.2% 20.9 8.3% 75.3 9.5 14.4% 100.5 Tu 57.0 11.8% 25.7 9.8% 44.8 9.8% 17.4 27.9% 63.0 15.0 31.3% 22.8 9.1% 88.9 13.6 18.1% 112.8 We 72.0 26.3% 27.1 5.4% 50.7 13.2% 22.0 26.4% 84.0 21.0 33.3% 25.0 9.6% 105.0 16.1 18.1% 130.0 Th 88.8 23.3% 30.0 10.7% 64.8 27.8% 27.0 22.7% 106.0 22.0 26.2% 28.0 12.0% 125.0 20.0 19.0% proj Fr(OD) 140.0 57.7% 50.1 67.0% 96.0 48.1% 62.0 129.6% 165.0 59.0 55.7% 64.4 130.0% 194.6 69.6 55.7% proj OD BO 356.0 154.3% 251.5 162.0% 62.0 417.0 152.7% 64.4 486.6 150.0% Multi 2.54 2.62 2.52 2.50 OD OW Total OD $ OW $ Total $ JttW2 356 777 1656 52 113 240 WC 251 819 1472 36 125 225 FF8 417 1352 2671 60 196 387 IW 487 1576 2995 77 249 474 proj Edited May 8, 2018 by POTUS 6 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 (edited) On 4/11/2017 at 8:27 AM, keysersoze123 said: today its doing better than yesterday but acceleration has not been as much as I thought. Will not see 40% increase today. Probably looking at 25-30% increase. Currently at 70.12m and including midnights at 88.69m. Number of OD show will hit 100K in next hour. Edit: crossed 100K shows at 230PM. and in few minutes increased 600k. So its hitting the 3rd gear for sure. 45 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: Presumably when you break the presales record by that much you get saddled with a worse presales multi as a consequence, but it really seems like the DOM OW figure could get topped if things continue going well. The other thing that could slip is the last day bump of PS. This PS run started much earlier, but they usually save the last 40% of shows for the last 3 days. FF8 was 100k shows on Tues at 1430, IW is at 124k. If the final tally is 20% more than this is close to inline. But it could be a 48% bump like WC on the chart. That knocks the weekend down to $237m In summation The PS multi could knock the weekend down 10% The last day PS bump could reduce WE by 5% However we could see a higher saturation by 5% and 10% larger Saturday bump that would add 8% to the WE $225-275m is possible Im sticking with 230-260m as my range I think they will fudge it if its close to $257 Edited May 8, 2018 by POTUS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...